Green Bay Packers: 2015 Fantasy Football Analysis and Team Outlook

I don’t think I’m revealing any sort of groundbreaking insight by stating that the Green Bay Packers are by far the greatest source of fantasy production in the NFL. Still, there are some things to sort out in regard to the big four of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. It’s not really a matter of how good they’ll be but rather where exactly you should feel comfortable drafting them.

If you’ve kept up with any of my other team previews this season, you’ll notice rather quickly that this one is a bit different. I’m operating under the assumption that you don’t need me to tell you how good the Packers are; virtually every NFL and fantasy outlet has that spelled that out for you already. Instead, we’re going to focus more on the team’s individual player values with the traditional preview info sprinkled throughout.

Offseason Acquisitions: WR Ty Montgomery

No Longer on the Roster: WR Jarrett Boykin, RB DuJuan Harris

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is really good. Done. What’s next?

…Kidding. Outside of 2013 when he only played nine games, Rodgers has been the most productive and consistent quarterback in the NFL. If you exclude the year he was injured and take the average of his stats since becoming the starter in 2008, you’d have a stat line of 4,285 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. He’s a stud and is firmly atop the quarterback rankings.

There’s some chatter about Andrew Luck overtaking Rodgers as the number one QB this year but to be honest, you can apply the following logic to Luck just as well. With Rodgers being the best QB in the league, you have to start weighing how early is too early to take him considering how much better he is than everyone else. The rankings on him are fairly consistent in that he belongs in the second round in most fantasy leagues. He obviously possesses more value in deeper leagues since there are fewer top-flight quarterbacks to go around but even still, you shouldn’t lock yourself into taking or not taking Rodgers in the second round. The best approach in looking at his fantasy value is to let the draft come to you. Don’t be afraid snagging him in the middle of the second round but don’t force yourself into the idea of “I should get the player who scores the most points.” That’s how you lose leagues. Balance value and point totals.

That may seem like basic advice but I’ve encountered far too many fantasy owners who either dismiss the idea of grabbing a QB early or are convinced that since Rodgers scores so many points, his value is automatically increased. Neither of those things are accurate; I repeat, let the draft come to you.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have the unique distinction of being the only duo who are consensus top-12 wide receivers that play on the same team. That’s a rare feat in the NFL but one that shouldn’t come as a surprise out of Green Bay. Their 2014 numbers are extremely similar with Nelson finishing with 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns on 98 receptions and Cobb ending up with 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns via 91 receptions. They’re both superstar wide receivers who can be your WR1 in any sized league.

The rankings on these two sort of speak for themselves in that Nelson, the more consistent of the two, borders on top-5 status at the position while Cobb lingers around 10^th or so. Their PPR values kind of average each other out but there really isn’t a wrong approach to drafting either guy. With Nelson, you should be conscious of the fact that taking him as the fifth receiver off the board means you’re likely passing on guys with more upside like Calvin Johnson and Odell Beckham Jr. Unlike Nelson, Megatron and OBJ are the clear number one receivers on their respective teams who can just hoard catches and touchdowns without having to worry about there being “too many mouths to feed.” As for Cobb, he’s obviously the second passing option for QB Aaron Rodgers but this offense is so good that he’s worth taking over the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans.

It doesn’t really get much safer than Nelson and Cobb at their respective values within the top 10 or 12. Jarrett Boykin bolting for Carolina and the acquisition of Ty Montgomery shouldn’t really have any affect on this team's fantasy value. The number three receiver on the Packers has only ever just flirted with fantasy starter status, mostly in small bursts or when Cobb was injured.

(I should point out that Jordy Nelson did have offseason hip surgery but as of writing he has since been cleared for practice and the injury currently doesn’t possess any threat to bleed into the regular season.)

Running Backs

Third-year back Eddie Lacy is often mentioned in the conversation for the number one running back for 2015. Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch all have a legitimate claim to that honor but honestly, the argument for Lacy seems to be the weakest. Don’t get me wrong, I would be satisfied with any of those five players as my first pick in any league format but Lacy seems to have been given the benefit of the doubt based on the team he plays for.

If you owned Lacy last year, you’d likely recall his very slow start to the season, never even cracking 50 rushing yards in a game until week five against the Vikings when he had 105. Even after that, he didn’t really sustain any sort of high level of productivity until November. There were far too many clunkers of 40, 50, and 63 yards to justify Lacy as a number one overall selection. Even still, he did manage to finish the year with the seventh most rushing yards at 1,139 and his fantasy prowess was aided by his nine rushing touchdowns.

When you look at guys like Lynch, Charles, Peterson, and Bell, you see players who can single handedly take over a game at will and who don’t need to rely on a potent offense to produce. All four of those guys are very talented players who would possess similar fantasy value if they switched teams. Lacy is more of a product of the system he’s in. Granted, fantasy doesn’t exist in a vacuum so it matters all the same. I guess what I’m trying to say here is that when you’re looking at the top five running backs in fantasy, you’re really nitpicking at the differences. Bell has the suspension, Lynch is 29, Peterson hasn’t played in a year, Charles has usage concerns and with Lacy, it’s that he just happens to be on the right team. I’m fine with him as my RB1 at the fifth pick. I wouldn’t take him over the rest of the group but it’s not like it isn’t close.

It should be noted that the departure of DuJuan Harris doesn’t have any affect on who this team’s handcuff is. James Starks remains locked in as the backup to Eddie Lacy and can easily pick up the workload should Lacy go down. There were some rumblings early last season that Starks could see an increased role while Lacy was struggling but it was pretty clear that the Packers were set on who the starter was. I wouldn’t worry about that but it’s reassuring to know that there is a clear-cut backup in the backfield.

Tight Ends

Tight end Andrew Quarless is the presumed starter in Green Bay but there isn’t really much of a reason to get excited about him for fantasy purposes. As powerful as this offense is, it simply doesn’t utilize the tight end position enough for it to matter. I could rattle off 20 other names at TE that have a better shot at starting for you this season.

Richard Rodgers was a name that received some hyping last year here, but as of right now it's been quiet on his front.

Rookies

As stated previously, rookie Ty Montgomery doesn’t really possess any immediate fantasy value, especially when you consider he’ll already be competing with Davante Adams for the third spot in the receiving rotation. It’s a nice addition of depth for the Packers, nothing more right now.

Summary

Like I said, there isn’t much I can tell you about the Green Bay Packers you don’t already know. The big four of Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb, and Lacy are all studs in their own right and should all be off the board by the end of the third round. That’s an amazing feat for any team so you should be thrilled if you end up with any of these guys.