RADIO
Third Base Is Deeper Than You Think
Going into 2015, the third base position projects to provide solid depth. Fantasy owners should be cautious about using an early selection to fill the slot. In no way am I recommending owners to pass on Adrian Beltre or Anthony Rendon should they come at a nice value, but there are great contingency plans later in the draft. Let's talk about three players who I expect to outperform their ADP.
Manny Machado, BAL (ADP: 105)
Manny Machado stormed onto the scene in 2013, producing a .283/.315/.432 line with 51 doubles in a stacked Orioles lineup. He struggled in 2014 due to his left knee surgery, but finished strong after June 1 (.307/.350/.505) until he was shut down in August.
Still only 22, his rehab progression has him lined up to be ready for Spring Training. He plays in an extremely hitter friendly park and is expected to slide back into his second spot ahead of Adam Jones. The offense will miss Nelson Cruz, but there is enough firepower behind Machado to keep him seeing a steady array of fastballs.
The one weakness with Machado is, of course, health. However with Machado currently ranked 12th by Rotoballer, he provides great value if you miss out on a top third baseman. I have Machado ranked ahead of Pablo Sandoval, David Wright, and Todd Frazier. Enjoy the Machado ride. If it breaks down there should be viable replacements.
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (ADP: 154)
Count me among those fantasy baseball owners who cringed whenever a grounder was hit to Ryan Zimmerman. Every opportunity represented a fire hazard as his arm was prone to blow at any moment. To my surprise it was the hamstring that did Zimmerman in, limiting him to 61 games in a year where he lost his job to Rendon. Washington let Adam LaRoche walk this offseason so they could give Zimmerman the everyday job at first base. It should help limit injuries for the 30-year-old. In his limited time, he still produced a .280/.342/.449 line and gained outfield eligibility in the process.
Thanks to Zimmerman being labeled injury-prone, he’s currently our 15th ranked third baseman. I can’t blame folks for taking Josh Harrison or Matt Carpenter based on durability, but Zimmerman has legitimate 30 HR power with multi-position eligibility (1B, 3B, OF), and he'll bat fifth in a deep lineup. Zimmerman still has the potential to be a top eight third baseman this year. If he gets hurt, you didn’t spend much and can find fallback plans such as Aramis Ramirez or Chase Headley.
Nick Castellanos, DET (ADP: 224)
I’ll admit – I wasn’t very big on Nick Castellanos when he arrived in Detroit. He didn’t walk enough and carried extra hype in my fantasy leagues, so there was no way I was spending a draft pick on him. Fast forward a year and he’s basically fallen off the fantasy baseball radar.
Still only 22, Castellanos managed to hit .259 with 12 HR despite a .326 BABIP with a crazy high 28.5% LD% (line drive percentage). This typically leads to regression in batting average, but count me among the believers. Marcus Semien, Brett Lawrie, and Martin Prado." target="_blank">Kevin Ruprecht of SB Nation noted Castellano produced similar advanced statistics to Freddie Freeman's rookie year, which is a promising sign. If Castellanos can make strides to improve his plate discipline (6.2% BB%, 24.2% K% in 2014), he should be able to maintain his average and improve upon his power numbers.
Currently our 25th ranked third baseman, Castellanos carries great value in deeper leagues as a sneaky power source. I envision a .275/15/75 line for 2015, which would place him in the top 15 at the position. I’d rather have Castellanos than Marcus Semien, Brett Lawrie, or Martin Prado.
