10 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Frank Ammirante's 2025 Picks

March 13, 2025

Frank Ammirante's 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Corbin Burnes, Jacob deGrom, Adley Ruschman, and more.

We're in primetime of fantasy baseball draft season, making it the perfect spot to drop my bold predictions. You'll find 10 of my favorite targets, each with a high ceiling for the 2025 MLB season.

Each position will be represented in these 10 bold predictions, including one catcher, one corner infielder, one middle infielder, three outfielders, three starters, and one reliever.

So without further ado, here are my 10 bold predictions for 2025 fantasy baseball. Don't forget to check out other longshot picks from RotoBaller's MLB team as part of our yearly Bold Predictions series.

Adley Rutschman hits 30+ home runs

.444 AVG
1.156 OPS

Adley Rutschman's #SpringTraining numbers are 🔥 and his teammates have noticed.

(MLB x @TMobile) pic.twitter.com/qRaQk2wV8P

— MLB (@MLB) March 10, 2025

Adley Rutschman's career-high is 20 home runs in 687 plate appearances back in 2023. The most optimistic projection for Rutschman is from Steamer, which pencils in the Orioles catcher for 20 homers. As a catcher who projects to be among the league leaders in plate appearances at his position, there should be plenty of opportunities for Rutschman this year.

The main factor behind this bold prediction is that the Orioles have moved the left-field fences in to try to make Camden Yards more home run-friendly. As a switch-hitter, this is good news for Rutschman, who put up a 159 wRC+ from the right side last season. Even better, 12 of Rutschman's 19 homers came vs lefties last year, despite 274 fewer plate appearances.

It's also worth noting that this is a 27-year-old former top prospect who competed in the Home Run Derby back in 2023, so it's not like there isn't more juice in that bat. I'm betting that Rutschman taps into his power upside in a more favorable home ballpark this season.

Vinnie Pasquantino hits 35+ home runs

Fun Fact: #Royals Vinnie Pasquantino was the only player in 2024 (min 100 AB) to have at least a 50% hard hit rate and 90% contact rate on pitches in the zone

Stat via @JonPgh MLB leaderboard pic.twitter.com/dIEreRTP4F

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 3, 2025

Vinnie Pasquantino has topped out at 19 home runs in 554 plate appearances in his young career. Once again Steamer has the highest projection on the Royals first baseman, putting him down for 26 homers this season. This is a budding star with great plate discipline that plays virtually every day. In fact, before getting injured on August 29, Pasquantino ranked 5th among first basemen with 554 plate appearances.

The 27-year-old corner infielder put up an impressive 93.9% zone contact rate last season, which ranked 5th among qualified hitters. This type of elite contact reminds me of Jose Ramirez. Let's remember that the Guardians star only hit 11 home runs in his first full season back in 2016. It took time for Ramirez to tap into his power, eventually getting to 29 homers in 2017.

I'm predicting that we see something similar with Pasquantino this year. You're likely to get enough volume for him to set a career-high in home runs. We just need some growth at the plate to get to 35+ long balls, which doesn't feel out of reach for this advanced hitter.

Trevor Story steals 35+ bases

Trevor Story's best season for stolen bases was back in 2018 when he put up 27 steals. OOPSY has the best projection for Story at 27 for 2025, but every other system is between 19-23. The key factor with Story is that the veteran shortstop hasn't played a full season with the new stolen base-friendly rules in place.

We saw glimpses of Story's stolen base upside last season, where he racked up six steals in only 106 plate appearances. That's a pace of about 34 swipes in 600 plate appearances. It's also worth noting that Story's speed is still there, as highlighted by his 70th percentile sprint speed, per Baseball Savant. We could see the former Rockie take advantage of the new rules if he can stay healthy.

Story is still a good defender at shortstop, so the opportunity should be there for him to stay in the lineup on most days. While 35+ steals is a high bar, it's a bold prediction that feels within reach when you consider Story's track record. Let's just hope that this power-speed threat can avoid long-term injury for once.

Jorge Soler hits 40+ home runs

Jorge Soler hits one over EVERYTHING! 🚀 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/DjOBDJeb7G

— MLB (@MLB) March 10, 2025

Jorge Soler's career-high is 48 homers, set back when he was with the Royals in 2019. OOPSY is the most optimistic projection for the former Brave, putting him down for 30 homers this season. This is a veteran with a track record, who still put up a 12.3% barrel rate and 115.4 MPH max exit velocity last year. These are encouraging signs for a slugger who only hit 21 homers in 2024.

The main reason why Soler had such a down year in power was because 392 of his 574 plate appearances came with the Giants. Soler hit 12 homers with San Francisco, but only four of them came at home. That's because Oracle Park ranks 28th for right-handed home runs in a three-year rolling average, according to Baseball Savant.

I'm taking a chance that Soler gets back on track in Los Angeles, especially since Angel Stadium is the seventh-best park for right-handed power. It will also help Soler to hit next to Mike Trout, giving him protection in the lineup. Los Angeles is a rebuilding team trying to be somewhat competitive with Trout in the lineup, so Soler should get his at-bats to approach this number.

Kerry Carpenter hits 35+ home runs

Kerry Carpenter's top power output is 20 homers back in 2023, but he showed tremendous upside last year, slugging 18 homers in only 296 plate appearances, which is about 36 big flies in 600 plate appearances. The most bullish projection on Carpenter is Steamer, penciling in the Tigers slugger for 24 home runs.

When you look at Carpenter's batted ball profile, you come away feeling optimistic about the power ceiling. This is a hitter who put up an elite 16.9% barrel rate last season. The issue is that the Tigers take him out of the lineup against lefties, as he had only 32 of his 296 plate appearances vs southpaws last season. It wasn't pretty, either, as shown by his 18 wRC+ against them.

However, Carpenter is on record as saying that he wants more opportunities vs lefties, stating that he "had a lot of success vs lefties in the minors," according to an MLB.com article from March 5. If Tigers manager A.J. Hinch gives his slugger a shot and he exceeds expectations, then 35+ home runs is within reach.

Josh Lowe steals 40+ bases

Josh Lowe's best showing with stolen bases was 32 in 2023, but he had an even better rate last year, racking up 25 steals in only 387 plate appearances. That works out to about 39 stolen bases in 600 plate appearances. The top projection system on Lowe's speed is OOPSY, which has him down for 28 steals on the season.

This is a player with 79th percentile sprint speed according to Baseball Savant, so he has the wheels to make 40+ steals happen. The problem is that Lowe is often platooned against lefties, but there's always the chance that he can force his way into the lineup vs southpaws. After all, this is a 27-year-old hitter with only 1,088 career plate appearances in the big leagues -- far from a finished product.

We also have to highlight Lowe's terrific efficiency on the base paths, going 25-for-26 last season. Bet on the Rays continuing to allow their talented outfielder to run wild when he gets on base. We just need a chunk of more plate appearances vs southpaws than usual for this bold prediction to hit.

Corbin Burnes puts up 220+ strikeouts

Corbin Burnes, final 3 GS in 2024...

19 IP, 0.47 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 7.6% BB, 36.4% K

- New look cutter... usage/whiff rates increased
- Threw sweeper 48x/10.9% (Only 6x entering Sept)

The K% has been trending down, but I think we see it tick back up in 2025.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/meRrsixSna

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025

Corbin Burnes' best strikeout season was 2022, when he racked up 243 punchouts. But 220+ strikeouts is now considered a bold prediction after Burnes put up a 23.1 K% last season, his lowest rate since his rookie season in 2018. Steamer is the top projection system on Burnes this year, penciling him in for 193 strikeouts.

I'm betting that Burnes rediscovers his strikeout ability, particularly because he started to get comfortable with his cutter late last season. The results were promising, with a combined 24 strikeouts in his last three starts, spanning 19 innings. We've seen that carry over to spring training, where Burnes has posted a 35.1 K% in 9.1 innings as of March 11.

This is a pitcher who should see enough volume to approach 220+ strikeouts, as Burnes has eclipsed 190 innings in three consecutive seasons. If the strikeouts rebound due to a better feel for his cutter, this prediction won't look so bold. Also, don't underestimate the impact of playing close to home, as Burnes lives in Arizona and he's now with the Diamondbacks.

Jacob deGrom pitches 170+ innings

Jacob deGrom is going into 2025 with a new philosophy of prioritizing location over velocity pic.twitter.com/SP209thgxO

— Rangers Nation ⚾️ (@rangers__nation) March 10, 2025

Jacob deGrom hasn't pitched 170+ innings since 2019, which was the last of a three-year stretch (2017-2019) where he got to 200+ frames in each season. From 2020-2024, deGrom has combined for only 265.1 innings, topping out at 92 IP back in 2021. The top projection on deGrom is Steamer at 152 innings, but other systems range from 110 to 132.

There are two key reasons why I'm boldly calling for 170+ innings from one of the most talented pitchers of this generation. For one, deGrom is currently healthy and his stuff looks fully back. But more importantly, deGrom has publicly stated that he's going to dial back his fastball to stay around 97 MPH instead of hitting 100+. It was once he started consistently throwing 100+ when the injuries happened more frequently.

While the Rangers are likely to limit deGrom's innings, that will probably happen most in the early part of the year. If this ace shows sustained elite production throughout the year and the Rangers are in the middle of a divisional race, I wouldn't be surprised if they loosened the reins on their thoroughbred, resulting in 170+ innings.

Hunter Brown posts a sub-3.00 ERA

Hunter Brown's best full season came last year with a 3.49 ERA, but I'm predicting even better results in 2025. The most optimistic projection on Brown is from OOPSY, which has him down for a 3.56 ERA. The main reason why I'm so high on this budding ace is because of how he seemed to figure things out in the middle of last season.

From May 11 to the end of the season, Brown put up a 3.49 SIERA and 16.8 K-BB% in 142.2 innings, which resulted in a 2.46 ERA. Let's not forget that this is a former top prospect, so it's not that surprising to see him come into his own as a potential frontline starter. With the Astros trading away Kyle Tucker, they'll need their pitching to step up this year.

I'm betting that Brown carries over his success from 2024 into the 2025 season. This is a pitcher with a 97th percentile hard-hit rate and 96 MPH four-seamer that allowed a .292 xwOBA last year, per Baseball Savant. The Astros righty has a diverse arsenal, featuring three pitches with a 29+% whiff rate, including his four-seamer (29.4%), knuckle curve (30.5%), and changeup (29.6%).

Jeff Hoffman racks up 40+ saves

Jeff Hoffman quietly was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, putting up a 2.39 SIERA and 27.5 K-BB% in 66.1 innings. This led the Blue Jays to sign him to a three-year deal worth $33 million. I'm not worried about reports of failed physicals with the Braves and Orioles. Those teams likely planned on using Hoffman as a starter, meaning more innings. Perhaps the Jays felt it was worth the risk since Hoffman would be their closer.

The fact that the Jays immediately announced Hoffman for ninth-inning duties bodes well for his saves output. Let's remember that this team relied on one reliever for the last couple of years with Jordan Romano, a span in which he registered 36 saves in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Expect Hoffman to get the same type of opportunity as Romano.

It's also worth noting that the Blue Jays severely underachieved last season, winning only 74 games after putting up 89+ wins in the previous three campaigns. This team was decimated with injuries in the bullpen. Now, despite missing out on marquee free agents, they still had a good offseason, highlighted by Hoffman, Max Scherzer, and Anthony Santander. Expect at least 10 more wins in 2025, meaning more save chances for Hoffman.

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