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Jeremy's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 25 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 25 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. In this piece, we discuss surprising pitchers who are going above and beyond expectations, providing your team with unlikely ace production that not many were expecting. Some performances are more sustainable than others, so we'll dive into each pitcher to see how likely it is for them to maintain their recent form.
These surprising moments of upside are especially important now at the very end of the season. Finding the right waiver wire streamers who are riding hot streaks could be the difference between winning and losing in the fantasy playoffs. Capitalizing on a real breakout could send your team home with the trophy, but picking up someone who is due for regression could have opposite consequences.
This week, we're focusing on Jackson Jobe, Ryan Johnson, and Quinn Mathews. They're all rostered in less than 30 percent of leagues, so there's a good chance at least one is available in your league. Without further ado, let's get into whether these pitchers can keep up their recent form. For reference, all roster percentages listed are taken from Yahoo leagues.
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Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers
25% Rostered
Jackson Jobe had a very delayed start to the season, as he made his season debut on August 8th after finally working his way back from Tommy John surgery. It was hard to know what to expect from the youngster, who posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts last season before suffering the injury.
Performance following a major elbow surgery can be hit or miss, but it's important to recognize how established a prospect the 24-year-old was as he rose through the minor leagues from 2022 to 2024. He was ranked as the 25th-best prospect in baseball by MLB.com in 2024, as he posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 91 ⅔ minor league innings.
That ranking placed him ahead of other right-handed prospects such as Cade Horton, Andrew Painter, and Jacob Misiorowski. That's not to say he's better than Misiorowski anymore, who has ascended to be the best pitcher in baseball, but it shows that the potential was there.
Jobe was solid in his debut outing in 2026, tossing five shutout innings against the Giants a month and a half ago, but it's been a bit of a rocky sequence since. However, that began to change in his past two starts, where the righty finally saw an uptick in strikeouts. After failing to strike out more than four batters in a start through his first five tries, he tallied seven punchouts against the Guardians on September 6th and eight against the Rockies on September 13th.
Jackson Jobe had his best outing since returning from the IL today against the Rockies.
6.1 IP
3 H
ER
BB
8 K
16 Whiffs (5 on SL, 6 on CU)#DNMW pic.twitter.com/2xPnz5T78O— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) September 13, 2026
The difference was a 62.5% whiff rate on his slider and a 66.7% whiff rate on his curveball in his most recent start, which he threw a combined 37.9% of the time. His four-seam fastball has been hit the hardest of any of his pitches this year, and he suppressed that by throwing it 24.1% of the time instead of close to 40% of the time as he did in many of his previous outings.
While it worked out for him that time, it's best not to look too much into the pitch usage changes, as the Rockies deployed an entirely left-handed hitting lineup, which is something you rarely see. Not facing a single right-handed hitter would certainly change his typical pitch usage, so it would be nice to see a larger sample before jumping to any conclusions.
Verdict: Jobe is in line to face the White Sox and Pirates in his final two outings, and he's someone I'd be looking to stream if you get the chance. He's had a couple of especially bad outings, but overall, he's held the opponent to two runs or less in five of his seven starts. Now that he's striking guys out, too, the upside is worth the risk.
Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels
23% Rostered
Ryan Johnson was very solid on Tuesday night against the Mariners, allowing one run on six hits with seven strikeouts over six innings. This was his third straight quality start and his eighth straight start of allowing three earned runs or less, as he's quietly been a reliable fantasy option over the past month.
He did fail to reach even five innings in a couple of those starts, but he also allowed only one earned run in each of those specific instances, so he hasn't had a start that hurt fantasy teams in that span. One thing trending in the right direction for Johnson over his past couple of starts was velocity, as his 89 mph cutter was sitting around 91 mph, and his 92 mph sinker was up to 94 mph.
Unfortunately, that trend didn't continue Tuesday night, as his cutter was back to 89.5 mph and his sinker was at 92.8 mph, although it's not something I'm too concerned about. After all, it was still a great start, and he's had plenty of other great starts over this span where his velocity wasn't up, too.
It's hard to feel great about trusting a guy with a season-long ERA of 4.88 in a crucial stage of the fantasy playoffs, but it's best to cut that out of your memory and focus on the short-sample dominance that the 24-year-old has displayed.
Verdict: Johnson was a complete afterthought for fantasy through the first four months of the season, and for good reason. I haven't seen enough to think the righty can sustain this pace for a full season's worth of starts, but luckily, you don't need him to. Lined up for a home start against the Twins and a road start against the Mariners, he's worth continuing to stream, especially in slightly deeper formats.
Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals
26% Rostered
Quinn Mathews had the best start of his rookie campaign on Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over 6 ⅔ innings. This was his second consecutive quality start and his fourth straight start allowing two runs or less, as he's been fairly consistent outside of a seven-run disaster against the Phillies on August 22nd.
Quinn Mathews flirts with a no-hitter for the @Cardinals!
The club's No. 8 prospect ends up striking out eight over 6 2/3 one-run innings: pic.twitter.com/t7CL8p3nUd
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 15, 2026
If you're not familiar with Mathews' performance as a prospect, it was a bit of a roller coaster. After delivering a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 35.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in his first year of pro baseball in 2024, his stock came crashing down in 2025. The youngster had major control issues, walking batters at a 16.8% clip compared to a 26.1% strikeout rate.
That led to an ugly 1.55 WHIP, which had Mathews tumbling down prospect rankings as a result. While the walk rate was still a problem in the minors this season at a rate of 14.8%, he found a way to be effective regardless, while increasing his strikeout rate back up to 29.2%.
That history is why it's especially encouraging to see his walk rate sit at 9.9% in the majors so far. While that's not a good number by any means, it's manageable enough for him to settle in and be a quality arm. The 25-year-old has been excellent at avoiding hard contact, as his 2.8% barrel rate and 32.1% hard-hit rate are both elite marks.
While it's a small sample of just seven starts, it's been a great outcome overall for the start of his young career. Projecting how he'll fare over time is an exercise for 2027 draft prep, as we only care here about his next few outings.
Verdict: Mathews' next start is lined up to be against the Nationals, which is a matchup that is definitely worth streaming him for. His start after that will likely be against the Brewers, which isn't a cakewalk by any means, but isn't a matchup I'd be scared of either. This makes him a priority waiver wire option down the stretch if he's available in your league.
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