RADIO
RotoBaller's Kyle Bishop analyzes the 2015 breakouts of Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, and Danny Salazar and offers his view on their outlook for 2016 and beyond.
As much attention as has been heaped upon the stellar rookie class of 2015 (something I’m guilty of myself), there were plenty of breakout seasons from other young players. Today, we’ll take a look at a trio of third-year starting pitchers who made the leap: Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, and Danny Salazar.
The first overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft, the UCLA product had the velocity and the frame of an elite pitcher from day one. During his short time on the farm (he logged more innings this season than in his entire minor league tenure), Cole pitched well but never quite dominated. He acquitted himself well as a rookie in 2013, however, tossing 117 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 2.91 FIP. His 7.7 K/9 was a bit underwhelming, especially given that he had struggled to punch out hitters at Triple-A. All other indicators were good, however, as he limited walks and homers and induced a high number of grounders. He enjoyed a bump in strikeouts the following year, whiffing exactly a batter per inning, though modest upticks in both homer and walk rates contributed to a 3.65 ERA that, again, seemed somewhat disappointing for a player of his pedigree.
In 2015, however, Cole maintained the whiff rate and trimmed the other true outcomes to career-best levels. Much of his batted ball data has remained eerily consistent, and consistently excellent, since he broke into the big leagues. The one major difference between last season and his prior experience was pitch selection. Cole threw two-seamers and cutters nearly a third of the time as a rookie, but has almost entirely abandoned both offerings in favor of more four-seamers, more sliders, and a curve. The altered repertoire paid dividends, as only Clayton Kershaw got more out of his fastball, per PITCHf/x data.
Archer and Salazar both bring mid-90s heat as well, but they make their living with other pitches. For Archer, it’s the slider. Only Cole’s teammate Francisco Liriano got more value of that pitch than Archer did in 2015, and only Tyson Ross threw it more often. While the slider has always featured prominently in Archer’s arsenal, he’s tinkered with the release point and turned it into one of the hardest-thrown breaking balls in the game. This improvement was essentially the sole driver of his incredible gains in swinging strike percentage (3.5 points) and K% (eight points).
All of that is great. The downside, of course, is the specter of injury. There’s no clear consensus on the subject, but some evidence exists that heavy use of breaking balls increases the risk of a pitcher, well, breaking. At 27, Archer is also the oldest of the three pitchers we’re discussing, and Steamer does project some pullback on the gains he made this year.
After disappointing fantasy owners who paid an expectant price in 2014, Salazar actually opened 2015 in the minors for reasons that defy explanation. Fortunately, Cleveland came to its senses and brought him up two weeks into the year, allowing him to log a career high 185 innings. Salazar rode the best changeup in baseball to a 9.5 K/9 and chopped close to a full run off his ERA from the previous year. The arrival of Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela certainly aided in the latter, as those players shored up the Indians’ previously awful infield defense. Salazar also allowed fewer line drives, though he continued to struggle with the long ball. He could stand to benefit from improving his slider, which has rated as well below average each of the last two seasons.
All three of these guys should be fantasy assets in 2016, and will be priced accordingly. Going forward, however, Cole seems like the clear best option. He’s got the best team behind him, both in terms of defense and overall talent. His home park is pitcher-friendly. He (theoretically) puts less strain on his arm with his pitch selection. He will also probably carry the highest cost, though Archer’s gaudy strikeout totals should put him in the same tier. Rest assured – he’ll be worth every penny.
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