RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving! Welcome to Week 12 of the WR/CB Matchup Chart. In the target section of the Week 11 article, Justin Jefferson was the very first receiver mentioned. He was obviously necessary to win DFS tournaments. The other top WR of the week was Elijah Moore, whose matchup was actually mentioned second. While Corey Davis got the matchup highlight, the Jets actually played Moore at LWR more than Davis. Miami had been terrible against LWRs all year, and proceeded to give up a huge game to the ascending rookie. Going forward, Moore will be listed as the LWR for the Jets. I would like to take this opportunity to point out that I was exceptionally high on Moore as a draft prospect and fantasy asset. Follow me on Twitter @draft32teams for NFL Draft and fantasy analysis and advice.
Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs.-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers, if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 12
Click image for full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
We start with the ultra-intriguing early game on Thanksgiving, as Andy Dalton and the high-flying Bears take on the juggernaut Lions in Detroit. Darnell Mooney had a huge game in Week 11, and should be Andy Dalton's top target regardless of Allen Robinson's status. The Lions give up the sixth-most FPPG to opposing slot receivers. Mooney also plays all around the formation and none of Detroit's CBs are very good.
On the other side of the game of the week, both Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown get upgrades against Chicago's underwhelming LCB and nickel corner. They deserve consideration in DFS tournaments.
Hunter Renfrow didn't do much in a loss against the Bengals last week, but gets an easy matchup against Jourdan Lewis and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Van Jefferson is back on the fantasy map after Robert Woods went down, and this week has the easiest LWR matchup in the league against the Packers. Keep in mind that Odell Beckham Jr. could easily get enough snaps at LWR to take advantage instead.
D.J. Moore scored a touchdown in an easy matchup with Cam Newton at QB and this week gets another cake opponent. Miami is fresh off giving up a monster performance to Elijah Moore. The Dolphins could struggle with the other Moore here.
Brandin Cooks didn't do much during a rainy upset of the Titans, but this week gets a Jets defense that is missing its starting RCB and has been progressively worse against WR1s all year.
Ja'Marr Chase has been quieter in recent weeks thanks to a run-heavy approach from the Bengals. The Steelers are fresh off giving up a monster game to Justin Herbert and the Chargers WRs so Chase could capitalize on a banged-up defense. Pittsburgh has also struggled against slots all year, which is good news for Tyler Boyd.
Justin Jefferson should keep the good times rolling against Josh Norman and the 49ers. San Fran has been better against WR1s in recent weeks but that includes matchups against teams like Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Hopkins-less Cardinals. Jefferson should feast.
Russell Wilson is playing as poorly as he ever has in his career, but there's no reason to expect his struggles to continue at such a staggeringly low level. At some point he'll start producing. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett get the lackluster Washington secondary on Monday night. Both are strong plays.
The Colts have given up the most FPPG to opposing RWRs this year, while also being stingy against LWRs and slots. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin move all around the formation, but it's possible Indy focuses on them as the WR1 and main inside threat, while leaving Tyler Johnson in the advantageous matchup. Keep in mind that Scotty Miller could come off of IR this week as well.
Kristian Fulton is back for the Titans, which means they funnel production to RWRs. It's a good spot for Kendrick Bourne. Tennessee also has the easiest slot corner to take advantage of in the league in Elijah Molden. Jakobi Meyers could smash.
Jalen Hurts has been terrific recently and this week gets a Giants team that appears to be unraveling. James Bradberry has regressed drastically after last year's All-Pro showing and Darnay Holmes isn't very good. DeVonta Smith moving around the formation could be in for a big day, but the best matchup on paper is for Quez Watkins in the slot. He's worth a dart throw.
Finally, Laviska Shenault Jr. has a good matchup against Atlanta. He could very easily be listed in a bunch of waiver wire articles next week but obviously can't be trusted as one of the biggest busts in fantasy. However, you should hold him in dynasty leagues in preparation for his 9th-year breakout as the Falcons' backup RB.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Tre'Davious White, Levi Wallace, and Taron Johnson have been the best CB trio in the league in terms of giving up the fewest fantasy points. You probably won't regret missing out on Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, or Tre'Quan Smith while in a food coma on Thanksgiving night.
A.J. Terrell got some love on last week's Thursday Night broadcast. He's having a terrific year which isn't good news for Marvin Jones Jr.
Chidobe Awuzie continues to have a solid season. Diontae Johnson produced in a tough matchup last week but gets a downgrade here.
Bryan Edwards has had a frustrating start to his career. Things don't get easier this week as Dallas is stout against LWRs.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are obviously matchup proof as the ageless wonder Tom Brady continues to shine. Whoever lines up at RWR most gets the matchup upgrade. I project that to be Tyler Johnson, but all Bucs WRs move around the formation. Generally speaking, the data doesn't love the matchups for Evans and Godwin. Obviously you don't bench them regardless.
The same goes for Stefon Diggs, who will draw the coverage of Marshon Lattimore. Play him anyway.
The Giants have been terrific against LWRs this year while struggling against RWRs and slots. DeVonta Smith is listed as the primary LWR but he plays all around the formation. It isn't the best spot but Smith is a stud.
On the other side of that game, Steven Nelson and Darius Slay have been tremendous at limiting opposing receivers' fantasy points. If Sterling Shepard plays, Kadarius Toney will get the easy slot matchup and should actually get an upgrade. If Shepard doesn't play, Toney gets a downgrade. The disappointing Kenny Golladay has a tough matchup regardless.
Tee Higgins has been underwhelming this year and his matchup isn't easy this week. The Steelers give up the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing RWRs.
It's time to accept the fact that Adam Thielen is simply an outlier in terms of touchdown prowess. He doesn't have an easy matchup this week and a dud is quite possible, but it's tough to bench him.
Depending on the status of CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson may be a popular play in DFS and super deep leagues. His matchup is tough against Nate Hobbs but obviously projected volume would make him a decent play.
Jerry Jeudy hasn't had a breakout game this year but obviously has the explosiveness to score from anywhere. Chris Harris Jr. represents a tough matchup so this may not be Jeudy's boom week.
Finally, three sensational slot receivers have tough matchups that you should probably just ignore. Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Jaylen Waddle all play in various alignments and get way too much volume to overreact to their individual projected matchups.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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