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I love bold predictions articles because I hate chalk. Preseason ADP is never anywhere near accurate when predicting the season, yet many fantasy drafters have trouble differentiating from the consensus.
Last year in this article I predicted big seasons for Jonathan Taylor, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins, and Justin Herbert. Following my advice would have also prevented you from drafting Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr., or Miles Sanders. Two years ago I nailed Lamar Jackson to win MVP. I’ve had my share of misses but I do believe that my close evaluation of college film gives me an edge when projecting players in the NFL. The purpose of this article is to nail some predictions and help you win your league.
A lot of sharp fantasy analysts have finally caught up to the way I’ve always drafted. My philosophy is based on almost ignoring floor, shooting for upside with every pick, and prioritizing youth. I also look to exploit median season-long projections, which are borderline useless considering the injuries and chaos of every NFL season. Most fantasy players also don’t realize how many draft picks really don’t matter that much. There are only a few true impact picks each year. Hopefully, this article will help you find them.
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1. Five or more rookies take the league by storm
I love fantasy football, but my real passion is evaluating prospects as a draft analyst. The fantasy community simply does not understand how stacked the top of the 2021 draft was in terms of skill position players. I’ve been scouting draft classes for over 15 years, and this class featured the best one-through-five QB group I’ve ever seen, the best TE prospect of all time, a Heisman-winning WR who went third at his position, and a solid group of dual-threat RBs. I also believe there has never been an easier time to transition from college to the pro game in the history of the NFL. Schemes are becoming more similar and young athletes are more prepared due to the life-changing opportunities players and their families start preparing for even before college.
My actionable advice for drafters is to target rookies early and often this year. Even if you don’t believe me about this class or the easier transition, it’s been proven this summer that both rookie RBs and WRs have been undervalued. It’s also undeniable that this rookie QB class features signal-callers with huge rushing upside.
Before I get into specific predictions, I do want to add that staying active on the waiver wire may be just as important as targeting rookies in drafts. Rookie performance typically improves as the year goes on, which makes them even more valuable, as they are likely to be at their best during the fantasy playoffs.
Here are some possibilities that just missed the cut.
• Trey Lance was my No. 2 overall player in this class and has been a popular fantasy sleeper. It would not shock me to see him put up big numbers when he gets the chance, but ultimately, I’ll only target him if he’s on the wire midseason. I don’t envision a lot of called QB runs and he’s not as much of a scrambler as people think. He’s played just one game the past two years and is in a run-heavy offense. So which rookie QB will break fantasy football? None. I think they are all priced appropriately and will have their moments, but their best seasons will come in 2022 and beyond.
• DeVonta Smith could continue to put up video game numbers as the WR1 in Philly, but he’s already missed time and I’m not sold on Jalen Hurts as a passer. Similarly, Rashod Bateman could have an Odell Beckham-like rookie resurgence as Lamar Jackson’s WR1 post-injury, and I wouldn’t be shocked. I’ll draft them both with injury discounts.
• Ja’Marr Chase was an elite WR prospect and a better collegiate than Justin Jefferson. Could he dominate targets and separate himself from Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as the clear alpha? Maybe down the stretch, but I don’t think the Bengals will score enough for him to outperform his pricey ADP by much.
• Michael Carter was a pretty good prospect and could establish himself as the RB1 for the Jets. A big year is possible, but I don’t think he has the juice to be efficient enough to win leagues, even behind an improved offensive line. His lack of ideal size limits his rookie year ceiling as well.
• Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall Jr., Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Wayne Eskridge and Nico Collins are all targets of mine depending on league size. If they are dropped in one of my leagues, they’ll surely be on my watch list. They all have huge weekly upside due to talent, but I won’t predict a game-breaking season from this group.
• Chuba Hubbard could fill in admirably should Christian McCaffrey miss time. Larry Rountree has the profile of a goal-line back the Chargers could use.
• I was this close to predicting a league-winning season from Trey Sermon. He’s the first RB drafted in an ambiguous backfield, a potential starter in a very RB-friendly situation, and is himself a very talented player. You know what…
2. Three rookie RBs finish in the top-15 in fantasy PPG
Trey Sermon will be the 1A to Raheem Mostert and preferred goal-line option. He fits Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme very well and has terrific balance, the most underrated trait among RBs. His usage with the first-team offense in the preseason has been encouraging.
Javonte Williams may not take the first snap of the season, but he’ll get more touches than Melvin Gordon starting in Week 1, and relegate him to a clear RB2 by Week 4. He’ll be an efficient tackle-breaker with a nose for the end zone and just enough receiving work to finish as an RB1. The Broncos traded up and used a top-35 pick on him for a reason.
Najee Harris will lead the league in RB touches and finish top-5 in RB targets. Harris is a terrific receiver and has been the best RB among his peers at every level of football so far. The Steelers did not invest a premium draft pick in a workhorse back to not utilize him as a workhorse back. Harris is going to get so much volume that he would have to be very inefficient to not pay off his ADP. The Steelers offensive line doesn’t look great on paper, but the fantasy community is not good at predicting skill position performance let alone OL play.
If Harris is efficient and gets the volume he’s lined up for, he’ll be a top-three RB. He’s being drafted as if we know he’ll be a middling performer due to his OL. Harris doesn’t have the long speed of Jonathan Taylor, but he was a better prospect. Many sharp drafters are completely out on Harris, but I predict he will be the premiere league-winning RB. The single most underrated aspect of Harris' fantasy projection is how many targets he'll command. Being top-4 in RB catches is within his range of outcomes.
3. Kyle Pitts posts 1,443 yards and 12 touchdowns
Some bold predictions articles will simply predict that Kyle Pitts breaks the rookie TE receiving record. Let me be clear - if Kyle Pitts plays more than 15 games and doesn’t break the rookie TE receiving yards record (1076), I will be absolutely shocked.
The Pitts discourse on fantasy twitter has been incredibly frustrating. First of all, Kyle Pitts is not a tight end. He will play in more WR alignments than inline, just like he did at Florida. The Falcons have Hayden Hurst, and Pitts is their second (first?) best receiver. We know Arthur Smith loves 12 personnel. Comparing Pitts to TEs shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. If you insist on comparing someone aptly nicknamed the unicorn to someone else, at least make it a WR.
Regardless, anyone projecting Pitts and using other players’ rookie stat lines as a starting point is just pulling numbers out of thin air. Let’s look at the facts. He’s an objectively incredible prospect, has a very fantasy-friendly QB situation, a terrible defense, and gets TE designation despite playing many snaps as a WR. My bold prediction is also technically out of thin air, but at least I’ve scouted the actual player in depth.
4. Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Moore both finish as Top-15 WRs in fantasy PPG
We know Elijah Moore has been tearing up Jets camp. I was higher on Moore as a prospect than any other draft analyst, placing him 15th overall in my rankings. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field and has excellent hands. He’s the Jets' most talented offensive weapon, and it’s not particularly close. Bet on talent.
Jaylen Waddle hype has been quiet, but I watched him get open during his first preseason action and was quite happy Tua Tagovailoa didn’t target him much. He also flashed on a nice punt return, something most fantasy players will never know occurred. Waddle was drafted 6th overall in this loaded draft class and has game-breaking ability. Tua taking a step forward is pretty obvious, and Will Fuller and DeVante Parker haven’t been the most dependable players for various reasons. Waddle will dominate slot routes and be hyper-efficient, coming on strong down the stretch.
5. Josh Palmer emerges as WR3 for the Chargers, finishing as a top-36 WR
Palmer has won the WR3 job for the Chargers after the release of Tyron Johnson. He’s had an excellent training camp and has all the traits of a solid pro. On an offense with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, Palmer will rarely draw the attention or best coverage defender of opposing defenses. Analytics models won’t like him because he’s not the best athlete and didn’t produce in a terrible situation at Tennessee. Neither did Alvin Kamara. Palmer was one of my favorite prospects - he’s tough and competitive with strong hands.
6. Kenny Gainwell is a top performer down the stretch, scoring 20 or more points twice in the fantasy playoffs
Gainwell had a terrific preseason and has carved out a role as an electric pass-catcher. He was a dual-threat at Memphis and has more juice than Boston Scott. Nick Sirianni’s offense threw the ball to their RBs a lot last year in Indianapolis, and with no proven outside receivers, Gainwell could be a top-3 receiving option. With an injury or trade of a TE, he could be the second most talented receiver on the team behind DeVonta Smith.
7. Russell Wilson finishes as QB1
Full disclosure, I considered adding in being lower on Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers into this prediction, but ultimately, they both have paths to huge seasons again. Allen has arguably the best OC in the league for fantasy purposes and Aaron Rodgers still has his OL, Davante Adams, and the last dance angle.
How does Wilson outscore all other QBs? Admittedly, it would take some unforeseen injuries or bad luck from the Mahomes/Allen/Kyler/Lamar tier. For the Seahawks offense, it will start with an increase in pace thanks to new OC Shane Waldron. By all accounts, the Seahawks want to play faster, and if playing faster increases overall efficiency, Wilson’s TD potential will improve. Focusing on median projections will tell a story that the Seahawks will run the ball a lot and be about league average in terms of pace and touchdowns. And Wilson will still slot in at around QB7 in those projections.
There is a very real path to a huge ceiling. From a personnel standpoint, we already saw this group of players dominate early last season before it all came crashing down. The defense was better when the offense hit the skids, which changed the way they called plays to some extent. This year, I expect the defense, specifically due to a terrible CB group, to force the offense into some shootouts. I also think D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can both play better and be more consistent than they were last year. Additions of D’Wayne Eskridge, and Gerald Everett give the receiving corps ridiculous speed. This will be Wilson’s MVP year.
8. Nick Chubb scores 20 TDs and the Browns win 14 games
The Browns roster is absolutely loaded. Their young QB is in the second year of Kevin Stefanski’s offense, which usually means growth. Chubb’s lack of receptions makes him a questionable PPR pick, but I don’t think people realize how high his TD ceiling is. Kareem Hunt failed to take advantage of Chubb’s injury last year, so I believe he’ll settle in as more of a true third-down role player this season. Chubb is arguably the best pure rusher in the league and with the majority of goal-line work, on an offense with a dominant OL, he’ll hit paydirt 20 times.
9. A.J. Dillon outscores Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones is a great player, but the Packers have never given him a workhorse workload. Instead, they fed plodder Jamaal Williams and used a premium second-round pick on A.J. Dillon. Now that Jones is signed to a long-term deal, there’s no reason to predict increased usage for their investment, especially in the regular season.
Dillon didn’t factor in much last year, but when he did see the field he flashed in a big way. At 6-0, 247, Dillon dominating goal line carries is a possibility. His athleticism for his size also makes him a different beast than Jones, who hit long runs in this offense despite being slower than Dillon. Admittedly, this bold prediction probably doesn’t come to fruition unless Jones misses time, but he’s already dealt with an injury in training camp and has seen a lot of touches the past three years.
10. CeeDee Lamb finishes as a top-three WR
This prediction is 100% contingent on Dak Prescott’s health. CeeDee Lamb is unsurprisingly having an outstanding training camp without Amari Cooper, and by all accounts will play more on the outside this year. Lamb with a healthy Cooper takes some attention away, and Lamb without a healthy Cooper makes him a target-hog. Lamb is simply an alpha WR in every way and the Cowboys' defense will likely be pathetic again.
11. Ty’Son Williams finishes as a top-24 RB
I originally wrote about J.K. Dobbins in this space, but his season-ending injury has opened up a clear path for Ty’Son Williams to surprise people.
Williams has an interesting story, as a former four-star recruit who started his career at North Carolina and ended up at BYU. He suffered a torn ACL which cut his final season short but has worked his way back since being signed as a UDFA.
Following Dobbins' injury, the Ravens decided not to add a veteran RB like Todd Gurley and by all accounts feel comfortable with Williams as their RB. He was awesome in the preseason and flashed tackle-breaking ability and a size/quickness mix that really stood out. I challenge you to watch his preseason highlights and argue there’s a better lottery ticket in the late rounds this year. I’m willing to reach a few rounds to make sure I get him. Gus Edwards was very efficient as a role player, but RB efficiency usually dips with more carries. If Williams takes third downs from Justice Hill he could be one of the best values in fantasy.
12. Adam Humphries finishes as a top-36 WR
This year’s Cole Beasley is Adam Humphries. He’s basically free in drafts and has already stood out in Washington. Ryan Fitzpatrick will find him dependable, and while he likely needs a regression or injury from one of the other three targets on the Washington offense, he’s actually been an efficient producer before, having cracked 600 yards three times in his career, including a year with 76 catches for 816 yards and five TDs.
13. Bryan Edwards finishes as a top-30 WR
Bryan Edwards was one of my favorite prospects in last year’s class, and his rookie season was a huge disappointment. However, he’s drawing hilarious comparisons in camp and by all accounts looks like a starting outside WR for the Raiders. Defenses will surely focus on Darren Waller more this season and Nelson Agholor is gone. If Edwards stays healthy, he has the talent to smash his ADP.
14. Damien Williams outscores David Montgomery
David Montgomery is a good player and too much is probably made about his soft schedule to finish out last season. Monty has a real path to being one of a few workhorses in the NFL and a solid fantasy draft pick. One thing standing in his way is the presence of Damien Williams who last time he was on an NFL team, performed well enough to win Super Bowl MVP. Opting out last season, especially for an RB, is actually a good thing in my eyes. He’s fresh and recharged, and has looked good in camp.
Williams has simply never been anything less than an above-average RB in terms of fantasy production and pass-catching. If he can steal away some goal-line touches and score some long touchdowns, this might turn into a 50-50 timeshare sooner than people think.
15. Donald Parham finishes as a top-12 TE
To achieve top-12 TE status, Donald Parham will likely only need about five TDs. Well, he scored three on just 10 catches last year. Parham is massive at 6-8, 256, and Jared Cook hasn’t been much more than a role player as his career is winding down. There’s already positive buzz in camp. This is my favorite super late-round TE target a la 2020 Logan Thomas.
16. Cole Kmet finishes as a top-10 TE
Fantasy analysts often talk about targeting ambiguous backfields. How about an ambiguous TE room? If Jimmy Graham weren’t on the Bears, Kmet would be a far more attractive sleeper to people who simply can’t comprehend that the NFL season won’t align with every single preseason depth chart. Graham is so dusty I expect him to disintegrate at some point this season. When he does, Kmet will be on the field for basically the entire game. He’s large and a red zone threat. This one is obvious.
17. Cooper Kupp finishes as a top-eight WR
When you think of Matthew Stafford, you think of a big arm and deep balls. DeSean Jackson has been a fun best ball target of mine, but I think the upgrade from Goff to Stafford will help Cooper Kupp more than any other Rams receiver. Simply put, Goff was never that good, which forced Sean McVay to dumb down the offense and build through motions and the running game. With Cam Akers out for the season and Stafford in the mix, Cooper Kupp will be unleashed.
Kupp is a crafty receiver who hasn’t had the chance to excel in beating zone coverage. Stafford is an instinctive QB who will actually take advantage of Kupp’s route running. And the best part is that Kupp doesn’t have to win so close to the line of scrimmage given Stafford’s arm strength. Robert Woods’ yards per route run has declined the past three seasons. Kupp will emerge as the WR1, see continued red zone usage, and have positive TD regression (just 3 last year after 10 in 2019). His ceiling outcome is underrepresented in fantasy analysis.
18. DeAndre Hopkins finishes outside the top-12 WRs
This prediction is basically a complete fade of Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury didn’t win in college and has not asserted himself as an offensive genius in the NFL either. He lined up DeAndre Hopkins almost exclusively out wide last year and by all accounts plans to do that again. Kyler Murray was visibly frustrated with his play-calling last year and Hopkins fizzled down the stretch. A.J. Green commanding targets won’t help much and manufacturing touches for Rondale Moore is also not good news for Hopkins. I’d rather bet on creative coaches to maximize their talented players.
19. Austin Ekeler finishes outside the top-20 RBs
Last year in this space I cautioned people against drafting Miles Sanders and was met with some fierce backlash. While I like Austin Ekeler as a player, he is someone I’m actively fading in drafts near the 1-2 turn. Simply put, I predict Ekeler to run badly in terms of TD luck, and not earn enough volume to make up for scoring fewer than seven TDs.
The Chargers offense is loaded in terms of pass-catchers, all of whom have shown a nose for the end zone. They also drafted Larry Rountree and have two other backs capable of taking goal-line touches. I also think Justin Herbert is a sneaky threat to rush for 3+ TDs himself. Stud rookie LT Rashawn Slater excelling might actually mean less of a need to check down to Ekeler. The 26-year-old former UDFA either needs to score a lot of TDs or catch an absurd amount of passes in a loaded offense to be worth it at his ADP. I’ll pass.
20. You will skim this article and read the titles, looking to confirm the biases you already have for your own players
1-for-1. Off to a great start! Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
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