Worst Fantasy Football Picks At Each Position - Sneaky Bust Candidates for 2024

July 13, 2024

Joey Pollizze identifies four fantasy football busts at each position heading into the 2024 NFL season. His list of fantasy football busts at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Every season, it is important to avoid drafting fantasy football busts in the early round of drafts. Sometimes, though, it is too hard to see it coming because outside factors play a part in that. In 2023, players like Austin Ekeler, Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Tony Pollard all disappointed. 

All four of those players were going extremely early in drafts, but none of them finished top 10 at their respective positions. As a result, they were easily the biggest busts in drafts last year.

Now, heading into the 2024 season, there will likely be more busts that no one sees coming. So, let's dive in and look at the worst fantasy football picks at each position (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end) in fantasy drafts this season. 

Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Bust

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

There's no doubt that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. He just led the Chiefs to their second straight Super Bowl while throwing for 333 yards and two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in the big game. 

But from a fantasy perspective, Mahomes shouldn't be going where he is currently going in drafts. The 28-year-old has an ADP of 38.8 on Sleeper, which makes him the third signal-caller selected in drafts -- only behind Josh Allen (22.5) and Jalen Hurts (34.7). That QB3 ADP, though, is way too high for a quarterback who has failed to finish as the QB3 or better in four of the past five seasons. Last year, the two-time MVP finished as the QB8 and was widely regarded as one of the biggest busts at the position in fantasy. 

Of course, things have changed for the Chiefs offense, as they signed Marquise Brown in free agency and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. However, there are better picks going after him, like Lamar Jackson (39.5), Anthony Richardson (59.1), and Joe Burrow (65.2).

Patrick Mahomes 🚀 Hollywood Brown

(🎥via @Chiefs) pic.twitter.com/wN0RjVEFsD

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) June 4, 2024

Everyone wants to draft Mahomes surely. He's the best quarterback in the NFL, and he can throw for over 350 yards and three touchdowns in any game. But, given where he is going in drafts, he's not worth a third- or fourth-round pick. He has finished as the QB7, QB4, QB4, QB1, and QB8 over the past five years, so he hasn't necessarily been a fantasy superstar, either. The Chiefs quarterback should be a pass in most drafts this summer.

Fantasy Football Running Back Draft Bust

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane came out of nowhere last year and became a popular waiver-wire pickup early in the season. After not playing in Week 1 and only seeing two touches in Week 2, Achane then put together arguably the best performance by a rookie running back in NFL history. He totaled 233 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos and scored 51.3 PPR fantasy points.

Achane's strong play also continued for most of the year, as he averaged 17.3 PPR fantasy points per game on the season. That dominant rookie campaign has now pushed the 22-year-old atop of fantasy drafts in 2024. He currently has an ADP of 23.4, which lands him as the RB8.

Nonetheless, he's too much of a risk at this point in the draft. Your second or third pick in fantasy drafts should be players who are going to be consistent options for your team. Achane, though, is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. From Week 13 to Week 18 last year, the Dolphins back scored above 20 PPR fantasy points twice while also scoring below nine PPR fantasy points twice. 

What do you do with De’Von Achane? pic.twitter.com/GDQjMYj2ne

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) April 18, 2024

As a result, he'll likely be too hard to trust every week. On top of that, Raheem Mostert is still with the team, and the Dolphins just selected Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. While Achane should be involved on offense, there are too many mouths to feed in Miami's offense. If he isn't capitalizing on big plays, he could be headed for some rough fantasy days. That's why he is too risky to select at this point in the draft. 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Draft Bust

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

It was difficult to pick a wide receiver that could bust in 2024 because most of the top options have a safe floor mixed with a high ceiling. However, if I had to pick one wideout who is currently overvalued in drafts, it is New Orleans Saints playmaker Chris Olave. 

Olave has been one of the most consistent fantasy WR2 options since entering the league in 2022. As a rookie, he finished as the WR25 in PPR formats while averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. Then, last year, the 24-year-old finished as the WR16 in PPR formats and averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game.

Despite never finishing as a WR1, though, the Saints wideout finds himself going as the WR12 currently in drafts, which is too high for a player who does not have a high ceiling in 2024. With an ADP of 19.6 on Sleeper, fantasy managers should be out on Olave this season. 

😵‍💫Derek Carr’s TD% since 2021 is a lackluster 4.3% | ranks 22nd among qualified QBs.

Which is below the league average (4.5%) in that span.

🛑This makes me hesitant to draft Chris Olave over some of the other WRs in his ADP range w/ a higher TD upside.

💭Just something to…

— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) June 7, 2024

There's no doubt that the young wideout is one of the most talented playmakers in the NFL. He has totaled over 1,000 yards in his first two seasons and has averaged over 13 PPR fantasy points per game in both campaigns. However, there are question marks about his quarterback, Derek Carr. In 2023, Olave only scored above 20 PPR fantasy points twice, and that isn't good enough for a player you are taking with your second pick in drafts. 

Fantasy Football Tight End Draft Bust

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Fantasy football is all about value. When you pick a player in the later rounds who turns out to be a fantasy star, that incredible value makes your fantasy team that much better. That's why managers who drafted Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams late in drafts last season likely made it far in the playoffs. 

Even those who drafted Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta late in 2023 fantasy drafts got a steal. However, things are much different for LaPorta heading into 2024. That's because the 23-year-old finished as the TE1 last year and is now going as the TE1 in fantasy drafts this season. 

LaPorta definitely deserves to be the top tight end selected in drafts in 2024. He averaged 14.1 PPR fantasy points as a rookie while scoring at least 15 fantasy points in seven contests. But, as fantasy managers learned last year with Travis Kelce, taking a tight end extremely early doesn't necessarily work. With an ADP of 20.1, the Lions tight end is an easy pass in the second round of fantasy drafts. 

The 23-year-old was a great option in 2023 and likely will be a strong option again in 2024. However, it's not worth taking LaPorta in the second round and passing on other players like Davante Adams, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, or even Allen. Fantasy managers can find just as solid options at the position in the later rounds -- like Evan Engram in the sixth round or David Njoku in the seventh round.

Both Engram and Njoku averaged over 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game last year, and the gap between the TE1 (LaPorta) and TE6 (Njoku) in 2023 was just 1.5 PPR fantasy points per game. So, that makes the Lions tight end a pass in most formats at his second-round ADP.

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