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Week 16 Daily Divide: DFS Picks and Stacks

Daily Divide: Week 16

Nathan and Matt each offer Week 16 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make sound decisions for their DFS lineups.

Matt: Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Habari gani, and to any I’ve left out my apologies, and Merry Festivus!

You can follow Matt “the guy who helped you win your Week 15 DFS matchups” Rittle on twitter @ffrittle, and Nathan “you can’t kill it every week” Powell on twitter: @NPowell. Nathan: “I've got a lot of problems with you people, and now you're gonna hear about it” - Frank Costanza

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Sixteen

QB: Ben Roethlisberger at BAL:
This seems like a week where game stacking is going to be a very popular and optimal decision and the Steelers offense is a good place to start with their quarterback. Roethlisberger and the Steelers are 10 point favorites with highest over/under of the week at 28.5. The points should be aplenty for the Steelers offense. Roethlisberger has been one of the most reliable quarterback options when healthy. In non-Bengals healthy games, Roethlisberger has scored 22 fantasy points or more in every game, with 6 of those 8 games eclipsing the 28 fantasy point mark in 25 passing yards per point/4 point per passing touchdown scoring.

Stacking: Rarely does stacking a pair of wide receivers from the same team work, but the Ben/Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant mega stack has been fruitful more than once this season.

Matt: I love this game, as evident from my section below.

RB: Doug Martin vs CHI
Coming off a Thursday game, Doug Martin will have a week and a half since his last game, which means he could have some fresh legs which definitely helps this time of year and gets a nice matchup this week against a Bears defense that has allowed the 12th most fantasy points to running backs. Tampa is a 3 point favorite with a 24.5 team total, I expect the Bucs to ride Martin like they have in all games they have been favored. Per the Rotoviz game split app, In the 5 games the Bucs have been favored, Martin has averaged 17.02 .5 PPR points per game.

Matt: With Bears' WR Alshon Jeffery doubtful to play Sunday, I like the potential game script here for Martin. Not a bad weekend to "punt" a RB slot or two, but Martin is definitely one of the solid plays to consider.

WR: Allen Robinson at NOS
Allen Robinson is the best weapon in a game with a high volume passing offense with the highest over/under of the week at 52. Robinson has flourished against poor pass defenses, averaging 19.47 fantasy points in half PPR against bottom 12 pass defenses. This week he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the third most passing yards this season. The Robinson target volume has slowed a bit the last two weeks, with only nine targets in all, but the target volume should return sooner than later, with nine or more targets in 10 of his first 12 games. While Matt’s thoughts on this pick gave me second thoughts, I'm sticking to my guns on this one..

Stacking: The Blake Bortles/Allen Robinson stack is my favorite stack of the weekend.

Matt: I get into this somewhat below, but I have mixed thoughts on this one. Allen Robinson has been one of the best tourney and cash game plays almost every week of the 2015 season, and this is at worst a middling matchup. In that sense, this is a great play. The last month may offer a cautionary tale to those overly excited about this play, though. Since the firing of DC Rob Ryan four weeks ago, 'number one WRs' Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans have a 9-94-0 combined line. So if Allen Robinson makes a fantastic play, it's only because Allen Robinson is a fantastic weekly option. I’m discounting this matchup more than most probably will. The Saints defense may be horrible, but checking the recent game logs, WRs haven't fared as well as you'd think here. (Even Golden Tate's twenty plus fantasy point point two touchdown outing was only 45 yards in all.)  Given all this and Robinson’s DFS expense, I might consider Allen Hurns for the discounted price.

TE: Zach Miller at TBB
After a swing and a miss on my Jacob Tamme call last week, I'm going back to the cheap tight end well with Zach Miller this week. Miller has been getting some consistent targets in the passing game with at least 5 targets in 5 of his last 6 games. Alshon Jeffery has been marked as doubtful for Sunday, possibly bumped up Miller's expected target volume. As always with cheap tight ends, it doesn't take much more than a 4 catch for 55 yard line to pay off in full PPR. Theprospect of a touchdown makes the play even more attractive.

Stacking: Too many other good options at quarterback this week to go with Jay Cutler.

Matt: Not sure I have any particularly strong feelings on this one either way, but he is a reasonable cheap option. (Agree on Cutler, especially sans Jeffery.)


Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Sixteen

QB: Blake Bortles at NOS
Blake Bortles will be a favorite play this weekend, as Jacksonville, one of the pass happiest teams in the NFL (10th by attempts and 8th by passing play percentage), plays everyone’s favorite passing defense to target in DFS, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to all of opposing QBs, RBs, and TEs. (While it’s hard not to love the wideouts in this game, I do want to note the Saints have are dead last in fantasy points allowed to three different skill positions, and WRs is not one of them. They have “only” allowed a middling level of fantasy production to WRs, for whatever that's worth here. It’s not a minus matchup by any means, but this is why I’m focused more on the quarterback here than the wideouts.) To this end, the Saints rank dead last in passer rating allowed and in YPA (yards per pass attempt) allowed, a key indicator of success and failure for passing games. Touchdowns are king in fantasy, and the Saints have allowed the the 28th highest percentage of total touchdowns allowed to passing games, and the most overall in pure volume terms. (The Jaguars have the fifth highest percentage of team touchdowns from the passing game, so this figures to be a nice matchup on paper.) I’ll stop throwing stats at you and just say that the Saints are atrocious, Jacksonville likes to pass, and this may be a fun one. (Unless it inexplicably sucks.)

Stacking: Stacking seems obvious in this game, and I encourage it! Use some caution against overloading the wideouts in cash as, noted above, the Saints are weaker against RBs and TEs than WRs. If ownership percentages stay in check, this may make a nice weekend to stack up several Jaguars tourney lineups and hope the team runs up the score.

Nathan: Only mere mortals would fade Blake Bortles.

RB: David Johnson at STL
In his last two starts, David Johnson is averaging 176 combined yards and 1.5 touchdowns. His work in the passing game has been appreciated as well, averaging 4.5 receptions per game. Handling nearly 80% of the touches over the last two, the Cardinals new lead back is super athletic, locked in, and ready to go. Especially with all the injuries to RBs, David Johnson is generally a top three RB this weekend, and priced outside the top five on both Draftkings and Fanduel. No need to belabor this play. An elite RB play for a discounted price is all we need in cash games.

Nathan: The best running back play on the slate and not priced that way. A near must play once again.

WR: Martavis Bryant at BAL
It’s an embarrassment of fantasy riches in Pittsburgh. The "Pittsburgh lead RB” and Antonio Brown both top their respective positions in fantasy points. In one of the best passing matchups available against Baltimore (29th in FootballOutsider’s passing DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs), let us turn our mind today to Martavis Bryant. Scoring touchdowns in five of nine games played, Martavis Bryant is fantasy’s WR10 on a per game basis. Bryant has seen a target volume ranging between consistent and generous, with seven to ten targets in seven games, and averaging 13.5 targets in the remaining two. The Pittsburgh passing game is in a great spot this weekend, versus a defense significantly stronger against the run than the pass, “funneling” production into the passing game. Especially where Bryant may be a touch underpriced relative to actual 2015 production, he may be a core building block of mine this weekend.

Stacking: This game offers fantastic stacking options, and Ben Roethlisberger is a top five option this weekend for sure. (Thank you Nathaniel.) I wouldn’t be shocked if a few successful tourney lineups stack three or four Steelers. On the flip side of this affair, Ravens’ WR Kamar Aiken has been performing well and may figure to have a positive game script. (Picking opposing wideouts in games you like can be a subtle way to “stack” in tourneys.)

Nathan: Everything lines up for this to be a huge game for Martavis Bryant. I like this play a lot.

TE: Julius Thomas at NOS
The Saints rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and have given up touchdowns and decent weeks to non-household name tight ends before. Last week a struggling Eric Ebron (DET) put up a respectable 4-79 line. A few weeks ago, many blew off the HOU tight ends in favor of all-star WR DeAndre Hopkins. “Nuk” put up a 5-36 line in that game, while TE Ryan Griffin (who?) put up a 4-76-1 line, season high marks in both receptions and yardage. With everyone likely on the wideouts in this game, this play has the added benefit of being a bit under the radar. Averaging over seven targets a game since the Week 9 bye, facing the softest matchup possible this weekend, Julius Thomas is a solid option this weekend who may go underowned.

Stacking: I may absolutely stack Bortles (above) with Thomas.

Nathan: Great matchup in a highly productive offense, hard to disagree with this pick other than I don't necessarily love playing A Rob/Thomas in the same lineup.

Matt: tl;dr Nathan and I are kind of all in on the Steelers and Jaguars this weekend.


Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Kirk Cousins(only available on Saturday slates), David Johnson, Bilal Powell(my cousin), Antonio Brown, Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Julius Thomas

Matt likes: Ben Roethlisberger, Denard Robinson, Karlos Williams, Jeremy Maclin (targets + matchup), Allen Hurns, Kamar Aiken, Greg Olsen, Benjamin Watson


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