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Week 14 Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football


It's playoff time in the fantasy football world. Hopefully, you grabbed one of those coveted first-round byes and are just reading this column for fun, but if you didn't -- don't worry, y'all, because I'm here to give you #INFORMATION to help you make the best decisions about who not to play this weekend.

Let's talk about players who could bust this week, or who could at least end up with disappointing weeks. Because this is playoff time, I'm going to be going a little more in-depth this week, provide some honorable mentions (which is probably not the right choice of words in this situation)...really, I'm just going to up the details since this is such an important time of year.

Below are 10 lineup busts and avoids for Week 14 of NFL action.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 14

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions

Is Stafford still on anyone's roster? Before this year, Stafford was the classic yeah, I need to draft a solid dude late in my draft who I can trust to be a consistent starter, but 2018 has not been kind to him. Stafford has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions over the past three games, and the Lions just don't really have much of anything at the skill positions at this point. Kenny Golladay is the only option that I'd rank as "good" at this point. Meanwhile, the Cardinals allow the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks in what should be a very, very ugly game of football.

Carson Wentz - Philadelphia Eagles

A big question I have with Carson Wentz at this point is that I don't know which version of Wentz I'm going to be getting on a weekly basis. Do I get the Carson Wentz who looked good against Washington this past week, or the one who threw three picks against the Saints?

This week feels like somewhere in the middle. The Cowboys have a good defense and just shut down the Saints, but Wentz threw for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception the last time these teams met. This time, it's in Dallas, and the Cowboys have posted three consecutive strong fantasy games against opposing quarterbacks.

Additional Thoughts

There is no way that I would put Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff on this list based on how good they and their teams have been this year, but both players have really, really bad matchups. You play Mahomes against the Ravens anyway, because they'll be throwing a lot and Mahomes is matchup proof, but Goff...do you think about benching him if you have another option? Maybe in shallower leagues.

A few guys with bad matchups who you probably weren't playing anyways, but should pencil in as avoids just in case: Sam Darnold, Jeff Driskeland Cody KesslerI'm also worried about Marcus Mariota against the Jaguars on Thursday.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Spencer Ware - Kansas City Chiefs

Ware was a popular waiver add last week, and he found the end zone against the Raiders, but his 14 carries for 47 yards doesn't inspire a ton of confidence with the Baltimore Ravens on the docket this week. No team allows fewer points to running backs, and Tevin Coleman was just shut down to the tune of eight yards on six carries. This isn't a week where I feel great about Ware as much more than a touchdown-dependent play.

Jordan Howard - Chicago Bears

Jordan Howard has been hovering on a ledge for a while this season, but he may finally be falling off the cliff. He played a season-low 41 percent of Chicago's offensive snaps in Week 13 as the Bears gave more playing time to Taquan Mizzell and let Tarik Cohen continue to lead the Bears backfield. That trend isn't good for Howard owners, and neither is the fact that he has averaged less than two yards per carry in two of his last four games.

Dion Lewis - Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Lewis has seen single-digit touches in each of the past two games. A backfield where he was trending towards pretty full control, with snap shares in 70-85 percent range, has now turned back into the timeshare it was, with Lewis seeing that percentage fall back into the 50s. His passing game involvement has been inconsistent, and this isn't the week for Lewis owners.

Additional Thoughts

I thought about including Lewis's teammate, Derrick Henry, but you either aren't playing him or are crossing your fingers and hoping for a touchdown, and that latter option probably doesn't really depend too much on the defense he's going against. Peyton Barber has a tough one against the Saints. Nick Chubb has been hot, but I'm worried with the Panthers on the schedule this week.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Demaryius Thomas - Houston Texans

The Colts allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers (which is...a little bit of a surprise!) and Demaryius Thomas has still yet to settle into a consistent role with the Texans. While there's no guarantee that Keke Coutee steps back into the lineup this week because he's still dealing with hamstring issues, Deandre Carter played a surprising role in Week 13 for the Texans and should cut into Thomas's upside.

Corey Davis - Tennessee Titans

I am, ummm, not high on the Titans this week. Davis had two catches for 34 yards the last time these teams played, and while Davis has three touchdowns in his last four games, Jalen Ramsey is a tough matchup, and it's likely that fantasy owners have an option they can turn to that they'll be more confident in. It's also worth noting that yes, Davis is scoring touchdowns, but he's not racking up the catches while doing so.

Tyler Boyd - Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and the Bengals will be starting Jeff Driskel once again. Even though Boyd put up a strong line last week, catching six passes for 97 yards, it came against a Broncos team that's been more susceptible to strong games from wide receivers. The Chargers should be able to get to Driskel and disrupt the flow of this offense, putting Boyd in a tough spot.

Additional Thoughts

There are a few entire teams I'm avoiding. The Eagles should see lower numbers across the board, making me especially leery of Alshon JefferyThe entire Jets receiving unit is a thing I'm just closing my eyes and forgetting about the existence of. And the Redskins with Mark Sanchez under center? Against a Giants team that's been strong against the position? Nope.

 

TIGHT END

Cameron Brate - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and Brate doesn't have a game this season with more than 36 receiving yards. He's a touchdown or nothing guy this year taking on a Saints team that's allowed just one touchdown to the tight end position.

Austin Hooper - Atlanta Falcons

Hooper's been a solid contributor this year, though he hasn't done anything to move him up above the streaming tier at the position. This week, he faces a Packers defense that allows the third-fewest points to tight ends and has given up just one touchdown on the season, so it's probably in your best interest to look for someone else in that streaming tier. (Nick Boyle against the Chiefs? Ian Thomas against the Browns?)

Additional Thoughts

There aren't really any Jaguars tight ends that you want to play anyways, but just a reminder: no tight end has scored a touchdown against the Titans this year. I don't see much upside for Blake Jarwin or for Chris Herndon IV this week either, as both face tough matchups.

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