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Week 12 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR


Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and currently sit at 15th in 2018.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Week 12 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I know the floor is low -- being benched after turning the ball over three or four times -- but Jameis Winston (My Rank: 4, ECR: 6) is a top-five play. I’m sure many of you have seen the whole “composite TB QB” is the second-ranked QB behind Patrick Mahomes, but you’d have to guess which is playing! While Peyton Barber looked good against the Giants in Week 11, the Bucs are still an air-raid style passing offense with a terrible defense that will launch them into a shootout. Anyway, I remain fully on board this pirate ship.

Of more intrigue to speculators is Russell Wilson (10 vs. 13) and Lamar Jackson (12 vs. 14). What can I say? I’m a sucker for a mobile QB and while I wish Russ wasn’t playing at Carolina, I believe he’ll be needed and Seattle’s RB trio won’t get them through this. Then there’s Jackson, who is a candidate for 100 yards rushing any time he hits the field and expressed a desire to throw more. He won’t tally 27 rushes again -- he can’t if he wants to survive in the NFL -- but anyone with those rushing chops will sniff QB1 territory. Bonus points because he’s facing Oakland’s insulting excuse for a defense.

On the other side of things, you’ll find Aaron Rodgers (11 vs. 8) and fellows like Philip Rivers (13 vs. 11) Ben Roethlisberger (14 vs. 12). The Packers are facing a Vikings squad that held him to 281 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 and haven’t surrendered more than 200 passing yards in either of their last three games despite facing Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Mitch Trubisky.

Then there’s Rivers, who faces a Cardinals defense that hasn’t given up over 250 passing yards in five straight games, and Big Ben, who has to push on through Denver’s altitude after tossing three interceptions last week. Denver ranks fourth in passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average per FootballOutsiders while checking in at 16th against the run. For what it's worth, the Cardinals are fifth against the pass (15th against the run). The Chargers are 12-point favorites at home (44 total) while Pittsburgh is favored by three on the road (47), which speaks to more of a run script in both with the Chargers defense potentially scooping a score on Josh Rosen.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Drew Brees NO QB 1 0
2 Cam Newton CAR QB 3 1
3 Andrew Luck IND QB 2 -1
4 Jameis Winston TB QB 6 2
5 Matt Ryan ATL QB 4 -1
6 Kirk Cousins MIN QB 5 -1
7 Carson Wentz PHI QB 7 0
8 Tom Brady NE QB 9 1
9 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 10 1
10 Russell Wilson SEA QB 14 4
11 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 8 -3
12 Lamar Jackson BAL QB 13 1
13 Philip Rivers LAC QB 12 -1
14 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 11 -3
15 Dak Prescott DAL QB 16 1
16 Baker Mayfield CLE QB 15 -1
17 Nick Mullens SF QB 18 1
18 Andy Dalton CIN QB 17 -1
19 Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 24 5
20 Matthew Stafford DET QB 20 0
21 Eli Manning NYG QB 19 -2
22 Blake Bortles JAC QB 23 1
23 Marcus Mariota TEN QB 22 -1
24 Case Keenum DEN QB 21 -3
25 Chase Daniel CHI QB 28 3
26 Colt McCoy WAS QB 25 -1
27 Josh McCown NYJ QB 27 0
28 Josh Rosen ARI QB 26 -2
29 Derek Carr OAK QB 29 0
30 Josh Allen BUF QB 30 0
31 Taysom Hill NO QB 32 1
32 Mitch Trubisky CHI QB 31 -1
33 Robert Griffin BAL QB 36 3
34 Ryan Fitzpatrick TB QB 37 3
35 Blaine Gabbert TEN QB 35 0
36 Brock Osweiler MIA QB 34 -2
37 Matt Barkley BUF QB 33 -4
38 Sam Darnold NYJ QB 38 0

 

Week 12 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

It’s hard to keep Matt Breida out of RB1 territory (11 vs. 13) going into a dream date with the Buccaneers, as I’m sure San Francisco would prefer to minimize Nick Mullens’ responsibility and let Breida run all over a struggling defense. He put the Giants on their buns two weeks ago (with a 60% snap share, his highest since Week 4) and now the oft-injured RB is coming off of a bye week against a Bucs defense that let Saquon Barkley have his way with them. Count me in. Very in.

The same goes for Josh Adams (21 vs. 26), who gets to face said Giants defense that has broken on the ground since trading Damon Harrison away. They’ve given up lines of 26-149-1 (Adrian Peterson, Week 8), 17-101-1 (Matt Breida, Week 10) and 18-106-1 (Peyton Barber, Week 11). AP and Breida also had receiving touchdowns, which makes Adams -- who just posted a 55% snap share in Week 11 -- a favorite of mine. Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement aren't moving the needle and Darren Sproles isn't ready for action, so let's roll with Adams with Philly favored by 5.5 points.

Those trending down are Adrian Peterson (24 vs. 20), Jordan Howard (26 vs. 23) and Tarik Cohen (30 vs. 27). These running backs share a common thread: dealing with a backup QB. Peterson was able to float his Week 11 rushing line with two touchdowns, but Colt McCoy will need to perform a miracle behind an already-ailing offensive line and sketchy WR corps to consistently bring Washington into the red zone. Ditto Chase Daniel, as Howard will likely need Khali Mack to strip sack Matthew Stafford on the two in order to get an inside-the-five carry.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Melvin Gordon LAC RB 1 0
2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 3 1
3 Alvin Kamara NO RB 2 -1
4 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 4 0
5 James Conner PIT RB 5 0
6 Nick Chubb CLE RB 6 0
7 David Johnson ARI RB 7 0
8 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 8 0
9 Leonard Fournette JAC RB 9 0
10 Joe Mixon CIN RB 10 0
11 Matt Breida SF RB 13 2
12 Marlon Mack IND RB 11 -1
13 Mark Ingram NO RB 12 -1
14 Aaron Jones GB RB 14 0
15 James White NE RB 17 2
16 Dalvin Cook MIN RB 15 -1
17 Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 16 -1
18 Gus Edwards BAL RB 21 3
19 Sony Michel NE RB 18 -1
20 Tevin Coleman ATL RB 19 -1
21 Josh Adams PHI RB 25 4
22 Lamar Miller HOU RB 22 0
23 Chris Carson SEA RB 24 1
24 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 20 -4
25 Dion Lewis TEN RB 27 2
26 Jordan Howard CHI RB 23 -3
27 Peyton Barber TB RB 28 1
28 LeSean McCoy BUF RB 29 1
29 Kenyan Drake MIA RB 30 1
30 Tarik Cohen CHI RB 26 -4
31 Alex Collins BAL RB 33 2
32 Theo Riddick DET RB 35 3
33 Elijah McGuire NYJ RB 34 1
34 Frank Gore MIA RB 31 -3
35 Duke Johnson CLE RB 32 -3
36 Isaiah Crowell NYJ RB 36 0
37 Derrick Henry TEN RB 38 1
38 LeGarrette Blount DET RB 37 -1
39 Doug Martin OAK RB 41 2
40 Jalen Richard OAK RB 39 -1
41 Royce Freeman DEN RB 42 1
42 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 40 -2
43 Rashaad Penny SEA RB 45 2
44 Mike Davis SEA RB 47 3
45 Ito Smith ATL RB 44 -1
46 Alfred Morris SF RB 49 3
47 Zach Zenner DET RB 69 22
48 Latavius Murray MIN RB 50 2
49 Nyheim Hines IND RB 43 -6
50 Kapri Bibbs WAS RB 52 2
51 Giovani Bernard CIN RB 46 -5
52 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 51 -1
53 Corey Clement PHI RB 48 -5
54 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 59 5
55 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB 55 0
56 Alfred Blue HOU RB 53 -3
57 Jordan Wilkins IND RB 57 0
58 Trenton Cannon NYJ RB 64 6
59 Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB 54 -5
60 Carlos Hyde JAC RB 56 -4
61 Deandre Washington OAK RB 58 -3
62 Jamaal Williams GB RB 60 -2
63 Devontae Booker DEN RB 61 -2
64 Chase Edmonds ARI RB 63 -1
65 Chris Ivory BUF RB 82 17
66 Javorius Allen BAL RB 65 -1
67 Ronald Jones II TB RB 78 11
68 Marcus Murphy BUF RB 62 -6
69 Ty Montgomery BAL RB 67 -2
70 Rod Smith DAL RB 66 -4
71 Wayne Gallman NYG RB 68 -3
72 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB 70 -2
73 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR RB 72 -1
74 Dwayne Washington NO RB 74 0
75 Byron Marshall WAS RB 73 -2
76 Kalen Ballage MIA RB 71 -5
77 Roosevelt Nix PIT RB 88 11
78 Andy Janovich DEN RB 79 1
79 James Develin NE RB 87 8
80 C.J. Prosise SEA RB 91 11
81 Stevan Ridley PIT RB 77 -4
82 Zach Line NO RB 81 -1
83 Alex Armah CAR RB 80 -3
84 Benny Cunningham CHI RB 90 6
85 Mark Walton CIN RB 75 -10

 

Week 12 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

It’s cheating to note that A.J. Green (12 vs. 45) is way above the ECR, right? Ok, ok. How about guys like Chris Godwin (34 vs. 39) and Marquise Goodwin (35 vs. 41) stepping into the WR3 ranks? Godwin was questionable all week but still managed 50 receiving yards while playing on 32% of the snaps. With Tampa Bay unable to roll out a frightful two-TE set anymore, Godwin should be a bigger factor in the red zone.

And I know what I said about Breida getting loads of work, but no one on the Bucs can match Goodwin’s speed and just one slant pass could lead to the house. He tallied an 84% snap share in Week 10 that trailed only Kendrick Bourne (95%) with Pierre Garcon out and Goodwin's ~5 targets a week is enough for me given his ceiling per look. This setup is why I recommended Christian Kirk last week and that turned out well!

I can’t sit Kenny Golladay (17 vs. 12) anywhere, but Detroit being without Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones really hurts their chances at getting towards the red zone against a stout Bears defense. Another sinker is Tre’Quan Smith (31 vs. 23), who I simply find hard to trust on a bad foot and his low floor.

Though he’s still ahead of Courtland Sutton (33 vs. 28), who has averaged five targets per game all season long with no change following Demaryius Thomas’ trade. He also hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 5. I don’t want to trust Case Keenum to suddenly elevate him against the evidence.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Michael Thomas NO WR 1 0
2 Julio Jones ATL WR 2 0
3 Adam Thielen MIN WR 6 3
4 Antonio Brown PIT WR 3 -1
5 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 5 0
6 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR 4 -2
7 Davante Adams GB WR 8 1
8 Mike Evans TB WR 7 -1
9 Keenan Allen LAC WR 10 1
10 T.Y. Hilton IND WR 11 1
11 Stefon Diggs MIN WR 9 -2
12 A.J. Green CIN WR 48 36
13 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 13 0
14 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 16 2
15 Josh Gordon NE WR 14 -1
16 Julian Edelman NE WR 15 -1
17 Kenny Golladay DET WR 12 -5
18 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 17 -1
19 Tyler Boyd CIN WR 18 -1
20 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 20 0
21 Amari Cooper DAL WR 19 -2
22 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 21 -1
23 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 22 -1
24 DeSean Jackson TB WR 27 3
25 D.J. Moore CAR WR 31 6
26 Allen Robinson CHI WR 24 -2
27 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 30 3
28 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 25 -3
29 Corey Davis TEN WR 26 -3
30 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 29 -1
31 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 23 -8
32 Courtland Sutton DEN WR 28 -4
33 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 32 -1
34 Chris Godwin TB WR 39 5
35 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 40 5
36 Devin Funchess CAR WR 33 -3
37 Tyrell Williams LAC WR 37 0
38 Keke Coutee HOU WR 36 -2
39 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR 38 -1
40 Golden Tate PHI WR 34 -6
41 Christian Kirk ARI WR 44 3
42 John Brown BAL WR 43 1
43 Danny Amendola MIA WR 42 -1
44 Devante Parker MIA WR 50 6
45 Anthony Miller CHI WR 35 -10
46 Kenny Stills MIA WR 54 8
47 Donte Moncrief JAC WR 46 -1
48 Willie Snead BAL WR 52 4
49 Adam Humphries TB WR 47 -2
50 Taylor Gabriel CHI WR 41 -9
51 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR 57 6
52 Michael Crabtree BAL WR 53 1
53 Demaryius Thomas HOU WR 45 -8
54 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 49 -5
55 Bruce Ellington DET WR 87 32
56 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 59 3
57 David Moore SEA WR 56 -1
58 Cole Beasley DAL WR 58 0
59 Mike Williams LAC WR 51 -8
60 Randall Cobb GB WR 73 13
61 Jordy Nelson OAK WR 88 27
62 Zay Jones BUF WR 67 5
63 Maurice Harris WAS WR 65 2
64 John Ross CIN WR 55 -9
65 Michael Gallup DAL WR 62 -3
66 Josh Doctson WAS WR 63 -3
67 Nelson Agholor PHI WR 61 -6
68 Trey Quinn WAS WR 94 26
69 Jermaine Kearse NYJ WR 68 -1
70 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 60 -10
71 Seth Roberts OAK WR 66 -5
72 Dontrelle Inman IND WR 64 -8
73 Pierre Garcon SF WR 79 6
74 Kendrick Bourne SF WR 72 -2
75 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 69 -6
76 Marcell Ateman OAK WR 77 1
77 Tajae Sharpe TEN WR 76 -1
78 Kelvin Benjamin BUF WR 70 -8
79 Dante Pettis SF WR 83 4
80 D.J. Chark JAC WR 80 0
81 Ryan Grant IND WR 78 -3
82 Keith Kirkwood NO WR 82 0
83 Allen Hurns DAL WR 75 -8
84 Chris Hogan NE WR 71 -13
85 Rashard Higgins CLE WR 74 -11
86 Taywan Taylor TEN WR 100 14
87 Jarius Wright CAR WR 90 3
88 Brandon Marshall NO WR 103 15
89 Tim Patrick DEN WR 93 4
90 Keelan Cole JAC WR 86 -4
91 Jordan Matthews PHI WR 84 -7
92 TJ Jones DET WR 91 -1
93 Trent Taylor SF WR 96 3
94 Laquon Treadwell MIN WR 85 -9
95 Equanimeous St. Brown GB WR 89 -6
96 Travis Benjamin LAC WR 99 3
97 Cordarrelle Patterson NE WR 97 0
98 Breshad Perriman CLE WR 92 -6
99 Austin Carr NO WR 102 3
100 Aldrick Robinson MIN WR 95 -5
101 Chester Rogers IND WR 81 -20
102 James Washington PIT WR 98 -4
103 Josh Bellamy CHI WR 107 4
104 Michael Floyd WAS WR 106 2
105 Robert Foster BUF WR 104 -1
106 Damion Ratley CLE WR 109 3
107 Cody Core CIN WR 108 1
108 Cam Batson TEN WR 112 4
109 Marvin Hall ATL WR 116 7
110 Rishard Matthews NYJ WR 113 3
111 Alex Erickson CIN WR 111 0
112 Chris Moore BAL WR 114 2
113 Phillip Dorsett NE WR 118 5
114 Richie James SF WR 124 10
115 Ryan Switzer PIT WR 101 -14
116 Torrey Smith CAR WR 129 13
117 Auden Tate CIN WR 110 -7
118 Andre Holmes BUF WR 126 8
119 Justin Hardy ATL WR 123 4
120 Dwayne Harris OAK WR 115 -5
121 Jaron Brown SEA WR 117 -4
122 Bennie Fowler NYG WR 105 -17
123 Corey Coleman NYG WR 121 -2
124 Chad Beebe MIN WR 120 -4
125 Daesean Hamilton DEN WR 125 0
126 Zach Pascal IND WR 119 -7
127 Leonte Carroo MIA WR 122 -5
128 Trent Sherfield ARI WR 127 -1
129 J.J. Nelson ARI WR 128 -1
130 Darius Jennings TEN WR 130 0
131 Dan Arnold NO WR 131 0
132 Andy Jones DET WR 134 2

 

Week 12 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

How about Cameron Brate (6 vs. 9) becoming the man of the TE hour for Tampa Bay now? O.J. Howard is on the IR and Jameis Winston is back at QB, which bodes doubly well for Brate, who has shown great rapport with Winston in the past. I have several players two slots above the ECR, but Jonnu Smith (17 vs. 21) is the biggest jumper.

After being content with three targets a game, Smith tallied eight targets in Week 12 for a 6-44-0 line after catching a TD in Weeks 9 and 10. He faces a Houston defense that has given up a 10-83-1 line to Jeff Heuerman in Week 9 and a 7-71-1 line to Jordan Reed in Week 11. There are far worse darts to throw, even if Marcus Mariota doesn’t play.

Then we’ve got Trey Burton (12 vs. 8) and Evan Engram (18 vs. 14), who I find extremely hard to trust. I noted Burton’s low target volume last week and he turned in a season-low one target as a reward, and now his QB is likely downgraded. Those in PPR leagues can take some solace in an inexperienced QB leaning on a big-target TE, but most should look elsewhere. Okay, but perhaps not in the Giants locker room.

Engram’s plus athleticism obviously remains, but he’s seen four, nine, five and two targets in his last four games. Laugh all you want at the Eagles recent struggles, but they’ve surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2018 and no one has topped 41 yards against them since Week 2. Here are the Giants red-zone opportunities thus far: Barkley (31), Odell Beckham Jr. (19), Sterling Shepard (14), Wayne Gallman (6) and Evan Engram (5). I know he’s missed a little time, but still. Yikes.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Zach Ertz PHI TE 1 0
2 George Kittle SF TE 2 0
3 Greg Olsen CAR TE 4 1
4 Jack Doyle IND TE 5 1
5 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 3 -2
6 Cameron Brate TB TE 7 1
7 David Njoku CLE TE 6 -1
8 Austin Hooper ATL TE 10 2
9 Jared Cook OAK TE 8 -1
10 Jordan Reed WAS TE 11 1
11 Vance McDonald PIT TE 12 1
12 Trey Burton CHI TE 9 -3
13 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 15 2
14 Eric Ebron IND TE 13 -1
15 Benjamin Watson NO TE 17 2
16 Jeff Heuerman DEN TE 16 0
17 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 21 4
18 Evan Engram NYG TE 14 -4
19 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 19 0
20 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 18 -2
21 Nick Vannett SEA TE 22 1
22 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 20 -2
23 Antonio Gates LAC TE 23 0
24 James O'Shaughnessy JAC TE 24 0
25 Mark Andrews BAL TE 28 3
26 Jesse James PIT TE 26 0
27 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 25 -2
28 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 30 2
29 Virgil Green LAC TE 32 3
30 Ryan Griffin HOU TE 34 4
31 Ed Dickson SEA TE 27 -4
32 Rico Gathers DAL TE 57 25
33 Vernon Davis WAS TE 33 0
34 Lance Kendricks GB TE 29 -5
35 Josh Hill NO TE 35 0
36 Charles Clay BUF TE 40 4
37 Jordan Thomas HOU TE 36 -1
38 Hayden Hurst BAL TE 31 -7
39 Luke Willson DET TE 37 -2
40 Logan Thomas BUF TE 44 4
41 Mo Alie-Cox IND TE 38 -3
42 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE 45 3
43 Michael Roberts DET TE 53 10
44 Blake Bell JAC TE 50 6
45 Luke Stocker TEN TE 39 -6
46 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 55 9
47 Nick O'Leary MIA TE 49 2
48 Matt LaCosse DEN TE 47 -1
49 Rhett Ellison NYG TE 64 15
50 Garrett Celek SF TE 66 16
51 Levine Toilolo DET TE 52 1
52 Richard Rodgers PHI TE 83 31
53 Logan Paulsen ATL TE 58 5
54 Darren Fells CLE TE 61 7
55 Maxx Williams BAL TE 72 17
56 David Morgan MIN TE 79 23
57 Jacob Hollister NE TE 65 8
58 Xavier Grimble PIT TE 69 11
59 Darrell Daniels SEA TE 74 15

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