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The conventional wisdom among baseball fans is that pitching is what often wins championships. You not only need a deep rotation to withstand a 162-game season and the inevitable injuries, but you also need a couple of aces at the top of that rotation to help carry you through the postseason. And on top of that, some postseason experience never hurts either as pitching in the playoffs is another whole level of pressure.
Major League Baseball is set to open up the regular season in less than a month. And while many teams have postseason and World Series aspirations, only a handful of them really have a stable of workhorse arms that it's going to take to get them there.
Here are my top-five MLB starting rotations going into the 2024 season. I listed the projected rotation for each team, but those could change by the end of spring training. I also tried to factor in some pitchers that could return from injury midseason. What we can't anticipate is what players could be traded midseason or even still signed before the season (Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain free agents). And just for fun, I added a few more teams at the end as honorable mentions.
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5. Houston Astros
Projected Starting Rotation
I already wrote about how Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier are coming off subpar seasons, with two of the biggest decreases in K-BB% among qualified pitchers. But that doesn't make them BAD pitchers by any means, perhaps just not elite arms like they were in 2022. Framber Valdez is still a stud who can eat innings and shut down opponents, while Hunter Brown is a rising star in his own right who could be set for a big breakout in 2024.
Hunter Brown's ranks among the 18 rookie pitchers with 100+ IP in 2023...
SIERA: 1st
xFIP: 1st
K-BB%: 2nd#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/URUPGeJxwq— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) December 14, 2023
The fifth spot in the rotation is probably Urquidy's to lose with Ronel Blanco in the mix. Both guys may have to start the year in the rotation if Justin Verlander isn't ready by Opening Day. The Astros are likely going to need some help if the aging Verlander struggles to stay healthy, but they at least have a solid foundation and a ton of experience here.
4. Atlanta Braves
Projected Starting Rotation
There's not much to say about Spencer Strider that hasn't already been said. He's been dominant with just two pitches and could be nasty if his new curveball is any good.
Spencer Strider, Fastball and new Curveball, Overlay (with Tails). pic.twitter.com/kRrsCeSzX1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 20, 2024
There are some question marks here with the rest of the staff with health (Fried and Sale), age (Morton), and Elder (regression), but all four of these pitchers have pitched well recently. Fried has never been a star, but is a steady arm who can rack up groundballs. Morton is finally showing some cracks in the armor, but probably still better than average. Sale is really the guy who could make a big impact here as he was once a top-three pitcher in the game and still has really good stuff.
If Elder can't cut it or the Braves do deal with injuries, they do have their top pitching prospect ready to go in Triple-A, AJ Smith-Shawver. I wrote about him here as one of the top pitching prospects for fantasy baseball this season.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Starting Rotation
The Dodgers are loaded this year and anything short of a World Series title is likely going to be viewed as a failure. Not only did they bring in Shohei Ohtani to bolster their offense (he can't pitch until next year), but they also added the best free-agent pitcher from Japan in Yamamoto. He looked every bit the part of an ace in his first MLB appearance.
Every pitch thrown today from Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
2 IP/1 H/0 ER/0 BB/3 K
Fastball sat 94-96
Splitter and curve looked sharp🎥: @burce_media pic.twitter.com/gxyTaWdabW
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) February 28, 2024
Tyler Glasnow was arguably the best American-born free-agent pitcher on the market and will help anchor this rotation along with Bobby Miller, who was one of the most impressive rookies in the National League last year. Those three alone make L.A. a top-five rotation. But consider that they also added veteran lefty James Paxton and have a future Hall of Fame lefty on the IL in Clayton Kershaw, too.
Two other rookies, Sheehan and Gavin Stone, will compete for the fifth rotation spot until Kershaw or Walker Buehler can return from injury. L.A. has easily the most starting pitching depth of any organization when everyone gets healthy, but in the meantime, I have them third overall with a few question marks about Glasnow and Paxton's durability and whether or not Sheehan and Stone can improve upon some rocky rookie campaigns.
2. Minnesota Twins
Projected Starting Rotation
I'm going to ignore the fact that Pablo Lopez got roughed up in his first spring start. He was outstanding last year in his first season with Minnesota and forms a very potent punch with Joe Ryan, who also had a great 2023 campaign.
One of the biggest breakout candidates this year that has the fantasy sports community buzzing is Bailey Ober, who spent most of last season in the rotation with some pretty solid results. The 6-foot-9 righty doesn't overpower hitters, but does have three quality pitches and excellent command. The Twins are hoping he takes yet another step forward this season.
Bailey Ober got one of his three strikeouts on this slider, which is great - really hope he keeps using that and it becomes a legit third pitch for him, he needs it pic.twitter.com/oOnO2NTrs3
— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) February 25, 2024
Chris Paddack is a project that the Twins undertook and has flashed some solid stuff so far this spring. He hasn't started consistently since 2021 in San Diego, but was once a promising prospect who might be finally learning how to pitch. The Twins have had success with other retreads recently (Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle), and Paddack is still just 28 years old.
It sounds like the veteran DeSclafani will break camp as the fifth starter, but Louie Varland is going to be up sooner or later and is a stud who throws smoke. There is depth here in this rotation and it's an underrated one since none of these pitchers really are known as superstars.
1. Seattle Mariners
Projected Starting Rotation
There was no doubt in my mind about which team I was going to rank first when I started to research this article. The Mariners have easily the most exciting collection of starting pitching and the best part about it for Seattle fans is that four of these five pitchers are 26 years old or younger.
That's right, Luis Castillo is the elder statesman of the group at 31 years old and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He will be followed by two first-round picks who have both blossomed into dominant pitchers in the last two seasons, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
60 Seconds of George Kirby Painting with his Fastball. 🖌️🎨
Kirby walked under 0.9 hitters per 9 in 2023...while also touching 99mph.
Greg Maddux walked fewer hitters per 9 only 1 time in his 23 year career (0.8 in 1997). pic.twitter.com/FxKJFyKVFb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 6, 2024
Bryce Miller had a solid rookie season and can blow hitters away with a 98 mph fastball. He's been reportedly working on a split-finger fastball for an added offspeed pitch and we saw his teammate Logan Gilbert have a lot of success last year by adding it to his arsenal.
Bryan Woo had some mixed results in his rookie season last year as he really struggled to get lefties out, but still finished with an ERA in the low 4s and a 25% strikeout rate. Both Miller and Woo made the jump from Double-A to the majors, so there were always going to be some growing pains, but both guys have big-time pedigrees and have had excellent results in the minor leagues.
If Seattle can keep this young core of pitching together (and healthy), they are going to have a nice window in which to contend in the American League.
Honorable Mentions
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have a steady stable of veterans in their rotation, led by the best split-finger fastball artist in the league, Kevin Gausman. Jose Berrios bounced back last year, as did Yusei Kikuchi. And Chris Bassitt just knows how to get guys out even without great stuff. The biggest question mark here is Alek Manoah -- who came into camp slimmed down this spring, but was coming off a disastrous 2023 campaign. He struggled in his spring debut, and the rookie lefty Ricky Tiedemann will be waiting in the wings at Triple-A in case Manoah can't cut it.
Cleveland Guardians
Shane Bieber will anchor the rotation (for now) unless he's traded, but he might be my least favorite of their starters. Triston McKenzie has flashed major potential in the past, Gavin Williams is an up-and-coming stud, Logan Allen is a solid young lefty, and Tanner Bibee may even be the best one of the bunch! Other than Bieber, this rotation is young and loaded with upside -- and we know Cleveland has a reputation for developing their pitching talent.
Miami Marlins
Even without Sandy Alcantara, this is a solid collection of talented arms. Eury Perez is one of the top prospects in the game, while both Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have shown that they can dominate as well, though they've been inconsistent. Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett are both 26-year-old post-hype breakout candidates who won't overpower hitters, but are crafty lefties with good offspeed stuff. And rookie Max Meyer could be poised for a big season after recovering from surgery. He will start at Triple-A, but could push for a spot in this rotation by midseason as well.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay hopefully has some reinforcements coming midseason with Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both set to return from injuries that ended their 2023 campaigns. The Rays lost Tyler Glasnow, but still have Zach Eflin to anchor their rotation. Aaron Civale has proven to be a solid MLB starter, while Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot have also shown to be serviceable at least. Taj Bradley has a huge ceiling if he can get everything working this year and as much upside as any No. 5 starter in baseball. The Rays always seem to get the most out of their pitchers and they have some solid arms here to work with in 2024.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have co-aces in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but a major dropoff to their third starter, ground ball artist Ranger Suarez. Taijuan Walker is a serviceable fourth starter and Cristopher Sanchez gave them solid innings last season as their fifth starter; however, he's never done it for a full season and had a sketchy track record in the minors. If Philly has aspirations of another deep playoff run, they're probably in the market for another solid starter.
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