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Top 101 Starting Pitchers: Rest-Of-Season Rankings for Fantasy Baseball (Week 16)

Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Are you taking it easy over the All-Star break, fellow RotoBallers? Well, buckle up because the second half is right around the corner so let's kick that off with another edition of my biweekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. As it is later in the season, these updates will come every other week. Eventually, we'll give way to streamer articles! But some of you still have trades to make so let's build a championship squad with my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!

As usual, the tiers are the most critical piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous edition's position and the change (Delta) since then.

These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's hop in with half of the season in the books.

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

The All-Star break gives us an opportunity to breathe and check out some leaderboards for the first half to figure out what we might expect down the stretch. We’ll also mix in some leaderboards for June and what we’ve seen in July thus far. After all, April and May were a long time ago!

For instance, Spencer Strider’s insane 38.9% overall strikeout rate is well beyond anyone else, with Kevin Gausman’s 32.6% coming in second (min. 50 IP). Now, shift that to SPs with at least 30 IP from June 1-July 11 and Strider’s 34.9% is third.

Tyler Glasnow (35.7%) and Blake Snell (44.4%!!!) are ahead of him. We still love Strider to be the top arm going forward, especially as Snell rocks a 99.4% strand rate (most are around 70-80%), but the dominance must be recognized.

Other notable SPs with a K% above 30% since June began: Braxton Garrett (31.1%), Bryan Woo (30.5%), and Reid Detmers (30.2%). In that window, Garrett’s 2.65 SIERA trails only Snell’s 2.34 mark, with teammate Jesus Luzardo’s 2.78 SIERA rounding out the top three. I will note Garrett is at 92 ⅓ IP thus far and only threw 125 frames last year. The Marlins already limited Eury Perez and may take a similar approach with Garrett as the postseason approaches.

Out of the same 102-pitcher pool with 30 IP since June 1, JP Sears has the third-lowest hard-hit rate per Statcast at 28.3%. The problem is that it is often a barrel when he does surrender hard contact. The other 14 arms on the top-15 list are sporting a barrel rate under 8% in that timeframe, but Sears is rocking an 11.3% rate. The southpaw shows flashes but the overall 1.72 HR/9 isn’t going anywhere and that’ll keep his floor low. Stream with caution!

On the other side of the HR coin is Jack Flaherty. He’d given up six round-trippers over his first eight starts of 2023, resulting in a 6.18 ERA and an ugly 12.1% barrel rate. In nine starts since then, Flaherty has a lowly 2.5% barrel rate and zero homers allowed behind his 2.81 ERA. The trade-off is horrid variance, seen with a .389 BABIP within the fences.

The only starter with a worse BABIP since June is Patrick Sandoval. His season-long BABIP is still a reasonable .312 but his most recent six outings is a ridiculous .415. This wasn’t helped by a 10-hit game at Coors but I’d err on trusting the 3.48 FIP in that span rather than the 6.23 ERA. However, Sandoval’s K rate plummeting from 23.7% in ‘22 to 18.2% in ‘23 with no drop in walks amidst the bloated WHIP gives most little reason to speculate on a turnaround in luck.

Let’s flip that leaderboard and see how, outside of Ronel Blanco’s .190 BABIP, it’s Clayton Kershaw at .207 pacing the field. Regression haters are furious as this stretch has brought his seasonal BABIP down to .271, which nearly matches his career mark of .270.

The 35-year-old may not return from the IL right away but it shouldn’t be too long. He’s still incredible but the 6.3% walk rate is his highest rate since 2012. It would be nice to see that trend down, but the future Hall of Famer isn’t exactly a “sell-high candidate” with the current injury so just monitor his form upon activation.

One other interesting tidbit that serves as a segue is every pitcher with the 30-inning minimum has given up at least one batted ball of 107 mph or more. That is, all of them except for Joe Musgrove! His maximum exit velocity surrendered is only 104.7 mph with only three barrels over 128 events (2.3%).

His ‘23 campaign was delayed by the broken toe and his first five starts were rusty, but he’s 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA (2.56 FIP) and 54/8 K/BB ratio in his last nine outings. His overall 30% hard-hit rate is also the lowest among all starters with 50 frames in ‘23. And he's leaning more on the curve lately, proving he can evolve with each start and keep hitters on their toes.


Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 16

Tier Name Rank $Value Last Rank Delta
1 Spencer Strider 1 $43.5 1 0
1 Kevin Gausman 2 $43.0 6 4
1 Gerrit Cole 3 $42.0 4 1
2 Shohei Ohtani 4 $41.0 3 -1
2 Luis Castillo 5 $41.0 5 0
2 Zac Gallen 6 $40.0 8 2
2 Blake Snell 7 $39.0 26 19
2 Zack Wheeler 8 $38.0 7 -1
2 Shane McClanahan 9 $36.5 2 -7
2 Clayton Kershaw 10 $36.0 10 0
2 Framber Valdez 11 $35.0 11 0
2 Corbin Burnes 12 $34.0 9 -3
2 Joe Musgrove 13 $31.5 22 9
2 Max Scherzer 14 $31.5 13 -1
3 Nathan Eovaldi 15 $30.5 14 -1
3 Aaron Nola 16 $29.5 15 -1
3 Logan Webb 17 $28.5 18 1
3 Joe Ryan 18 $28.5 19 1
3 George Kirby 19 $27.0 23 4
3 Justin Verlander 20 $26.0 17 -3
3 Sandy Alcantara 21 $25.0 28 7
3 Tyler Glasnow 22 $24.0 21 -1
3 Yu Darvish 23 $23.5 16 -7
3 Julio Urias 24 $24.0 20 -4
3 Shane Bieber 25 $23.0 24 -1
3 Dylan Cease 26 $22.0 25 -1
3 Pablo Lopez 27 $21.5 29 2
3 Chris Bassitt 28 $20.0 27 -1
3 Marcus Stroman 29 $20.0 31 2
3 Zach Eflin 30 $20.0 35 5
3 Jesus Luzardo 31 $19.0 37 6
4 Hunter Brown 32 $18.0 30 -2
4 Sonny Gray 33 $17.0 32 -1
4 Jon Gray 34 $17.0 33 -1
4 Mitch Keller 35 $17.0 34 -1
4 Carlos Rodon 36 $16.5 44 8
4 Jordan Montgomery 37 $16.5 38 1
4 Logan Gilbert 38 $16.0 36 -2
4 Justin Steele 39 $15.5 42 3
4 Braxton Garrett 40 $15.0 68 28
4 Charlie Morton 41 $15.0 39 -2
5 Cristian Javier 42 $14.5 12 -30
5 Bobby Miller 43 $14.5 40 -3
5 Freddy Peralta 44 $14.0 47 3
5 Tyler Wells 45 $13.5 54 9
5 Kodai Senga 46 $13.5 52 6
5 James Paxton 47 $13.5 57 10
5 Andrew Abbott 48 $13.0 56 8
5 Lucas Giolito 49 $12.0 55 6
6 Lance Lynn 50 $11.0 58 8
6 Bryce Miller 51 $10.5 43 -8
6 Bailey Ober 52 $10.5 63 11
6 Tanner Bibee 53 $10.0 45 -8
6 Jose Berrios 54 $10.0 62 8
6 Kyle Bradish 55 $10.0 77 22
6 Reid Detmers 56 $10.0 70 14
6 Max Fried 57 $9.5 81 24
6 Eduardo Rodriguez 58 $9.0 87 29
7 Andrew Heaney 59 $8.5 41 -18
7 Brandon Woodruff 60 $8.0 48 -12
7 Bryce Elder 61 $8.0 60 -1
7 Nestor Cortes 62 $8.0 -- --
7 Jack Flaherty 63 $8.0 67 4
7 Alek Manoah 64 $7.0 -- --
7 Tony Gonsolin 65 $6.0 61 -4
7 Taj Bradley 66 $6.0 66 0
7 Michael Wacha 67 $6.0 51 -16
7 Hunter Greene 68 $5.5 65 -3
7 Merrill Kelly 69 $5.0 50 -19
7 MacKenzie Gore 70 $5.0 69 -1
7 Ranger Suarez 71 $4.5 74 3
7 Taijuan Walker 72 $4.5 73 1
7 Gavin Williams 73 $4.5 71 -2
7 Garrett Whitlock 74 $4.5 72 -2
7 Eury Perez 75 $4.0 59 -16
7 J.P. France 76 $4.0 76 0
7 Alex Cobb 77 $4.0 80 3
7 Bryan Woo 78 $4.0 94 16
7 Brayan Bello 79 $3.5 90 11
7 Tarik Skubal 80 $3.5 -- --
7 Griffin Canning 81 $3.0 82 1
8 Jameson Taillon 82 $3.0 83 1
8 Michael Kopech 83 $2.5 53 -30
8 Logan Allen 84 $2.5 64 -20
8 Domingo German 85 $2.0 78 -7
8 Miles Mikolas 86 $2.0 79 -7
8 Chris Sale 87 $2.0 86 -1
8 Yusei Kikuchi 88 $2.0 101 13
8 Kutter Crawford 89 $2.0 92 3
8 Kyle Hendricks 90 $2.0 99 9
9 Michael Lorenzen 91 $1.5 95 4
9 Dane Dunning 92 $1.5 97 5
9 JP Sears 93 $1.5 96 3
9 Wade Miley 94 $1.5 100 6
9 Seth Lugo 95 $1.5 -- --
9 Josiah Gray 96 $1.0 85 -11
9 Patrick Sandoval 97 $1.0 88 -9
9 Nick Pivetta 98 $1.0 -- --
9 Matt Manning 99 $1.0 -- --
9 Michael Soroka 100 $1.0 -- --
9 Grayson Rodriguez 101 $1.0 -- --

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