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The Outsiders: Prospect Hitters to Know for Deep Dynasty Leagues

fantasy baseball prospects MLB prospects rookies call-ups

Welcome to the latest update where I highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week, I'm going to review all of the minors for deep dynasty prospect breakouts using my estimated Barrel% and estimated xwOBA metrics.

Estimated Barrel% is my proprietary quality of contact metric which estimates the percentage of batted balls that were Statcast Barrels. A full write-up on the metric can be found here.

Estimated xwOBA+ takes a hitter's Estimated Barrels, K%, and BB% and estimates his Expected Weighted On Base Average. Measures a hitter's total offensive production in a linear weights method for offensive events. You can read more on xwOBA here.

Here is the next batch of Outsider hitters for the 2021 season. Note that this weeks Outsider stats reflect a hitter's combined batting line among all levels in 2021.

Name Team Level Age BRL% xwOBA
Patrick Merino TBR A 22 18.7% 0.452
Wes Clarke MIL A 21 12.4% 0.433
Griffin Conine MIA A+ 23 20.8% 0.420
Brett Harris OAK A+ 23 16.5% 0.395
Freylin Minyety PHI A 21 12.4% 0.389
Juan Yepez STL AAA 23 12.8% 0.386
Paxton Wallace LAA A 22 11.1% 0.384
Ashton McGee MIL A 22 12.9% 0.383
Jose Torres CIN A 21 12.4% 0.383
Hayden Cantrelle MIL A+ 22 9.6% 0.380

Patrick Merino, OF - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation: Patrick Merino is a Cuban outfielder that the Rays signed as an international free agent in 2019. Merino had a brief stint in the Florida Complex League before being promoted to full season ball. He's flashed an extremely patient plate approach along with some big time power upside so far in 2021. He's an athletic specimen that hunts fastballs and takes big cuts when he sees one he's fishing for. He will have to improve his contact rate to keep moving up the ladder, but the power is super enticing:

Wes Clarke, 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Current situation: Wes Clarke was the Brewers 10th round selection out of South Carolina in this summer's MLB draft. Clarke was a polished power hitter in college, with some of the biggest raw power in last summer's draft. The power has carried over to the wood bats in Clarke's pro debut. Even more intriguing is that Clarke has also walked (13) more than he's struck out (9) in Low-A ball in 2021. Clarke has a profile that can move through the minors quickly, so make sure he's on your radar in first year player drafts this offseason.

Griffin Conine, OF - Miami Marlins

Current situation: I basically cannot devise a statistical list that doesn't include Griffin Conine this season. He finally got a push up to Double-A this year, where he's struggled to make contact. On the other hand, over 50% of his hits at the Double-A level have been home runs. I think he's currently over a passable strikeout rate to make the Majors. However, with power as prodigious as Conine's, if he can whittle the K-rate down to 33% or so at the upper levels next year, I think there's a potential MLB regular bat here.

Brett Harris, 3B - Oakland Athletics

Current situation: Brett Harris played his college baseball at Gonzaga. The A's grabbed him in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB draft. After a couple of games in the Arizona Complex League, Oakland jumped him up to the High-A Lansing Lugnuts for his full-season debut. The sample size here is small, but the estimators like his ability to drive the ball in the air and his ability to draw walks. He's also displayed some speed as well. An athletic specimen worth keeping an eye on:

Freylin Minyety, SS - Philadelphia Phillies

Current situation: Franklin Minyety is a Dominican shortstop that played junior college baseball for Wabash Valley JC in Illinois. He played in the MLB Draft League this summer, where he saw his stock rise enough that the Phillies signed him as an undrafted free agent following the draft in July. Thanks to his time playing in front of Statcast gear in the Low-A Southeast league this summer, we know that Minyety currently boasts an excellent 90.3 mph average exit velocity. He's not real tall, but he has a tightly wound strength that should produce some home runs in pro ball.

Juan Yepez, 1B - St. Louis Cardinals

Current situation: Yepez has never been a highly touted prospect. It is likely because he's really a 1B-only prospect without a big time pedigree. That being said, Yepez has shown us throughout his minor league career that he can really hit. In 2021, he moved from Double-A to Triple-A with basically no change in overall production. The estimators love his ability to drive the ball in the air for extra bases and his great ability to lift the ball in the air. Also, his plate approach has improved in 2021 as well, with Yepez running double-digit walk rates at both levels. Look for him to become a contributor for the Cardinals big league club in 2022.

Paxton Wallace, 3B - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation: Paxton Wallace is our second undrafted free agent on this week's Outsider list. Wallace played his college baseball at Wichita State. He has impressed in his professional debut, running a spectacular .400 OBP while also hitting for good power numbers (11.1% barrel rate). Wallace also won a collegiate golden glove at third base, so his defense at the hot corner should be another tool that could push him to fantasy relevance.

Ashton McGee - 3B, Milwaukee Brewers

Current situation: Milwaukee infield prospect Ashton McGee was promoted to High-A Wisconsin this week after an excellent performance to start the season in Low-A. McGee was the Brewers 18th round selection out of North Carolina in the 2019 MLB draft. McGee sees a lot of pitches, and is also capable of driving mistakes due to his good raw power. He has split his time between 1B and 3B this year. He likely has the range to manage the hot corner at the highest level, but I'm unsure if the arm plays up enough for him to cover the position. Second base might be a good alternative for McGee.

Jose Torres, SS - Cincinnati Reds

Current situation: Jose Torres was the Reds 3rd round selection out of North Carolina State in this summer's draft. After a brief stint with the complex team, Torres was quickly promoted to full season ball. He's got above average raw power, and he's already posted a 107.7 mph batted ball in his time in the Low-A Southeast. His swing is also geared for tons of loft, as he's posted a 30 degree average launch angle and a 53.3% flyball rate in Low-A so far this season. He also probably has the glove to be able to handle shortstop as he moves up the ladder.

Hayden Cantrelle, 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

Current situation: Hayden Cantrelle is a nice example of how these estimators can help you find players who are displaying strong underlying skills despite their surface level performance. Cantrelle is only batting .170 on the year. However, despite that .170 batting average and a .230 BABIP, Cantrelle has a .372 on base percentage. So he's getting on base, he's driving the ball hard (9.6% estimated barrel rate), and he's shown game changing speed on the basepaths (28 stolen bases in 36 attempts). In fact, he's been so strong despite the surface level production that the Brewers have promoted him to Double-A ball. Cantrelle is worth a second look if he's hanging out on the waiver wire in your dynasty league.



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