X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Outsiders: Pitching Prospects to Know for Deep Dynasty Leagues

fantasy baseball prospects MLB prospects rookies call-ups

Phil Goyette takes a look at deeper fantasy baseball dynasty pitching prospects, prospect sleepers that should be on your fantasy radars in deep dynasty leagues.

Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Overview

This week, I'm going to use my "classic" Outsider+ formula to review the top pitching performances in the "rookie levels" of minor league baseball. Outsider+ is a league-adjusted score that combines several league-adjusted metrics into a single overall score. Some of the top pitching performers in all MiLB by Outsider+ this season are the top pitching prospects in baseball: Shane Baz, Cade Cavalli, Grayson Rodriguez, Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, D.L. Hall, Josiah Gray, Reid Detmers, and more!

The players on my Outsiders list are posting similar scores to these top pitching prospects. So you can say that they are performing with a similar profile as some of the top young pitchers in the game.

I'll provide the Top-10 pitchers aged 20 or younger by Outsider+ in each of the Arizona Complex League, Florida Complex League, and Dominican Summer League below.

I've also included two more metrics for reference points. EstRA is my ERA estimator that just uses K%, BB%, and GB%. Read it just like you would ERA or FIP. ZoneDominance+ (ZnDm+) takes a blend of a pitcher's strike-throwing ability and whiff-generation ability relative to league average. In other words, his ability to dominate in the zone.

Arizona Complex League

Name Team Level League Age OUT+ EstRA ZnDm+
Gabriel Aguilera CIN CPX ACL 20 286 1.25 148
Nick Lockhart TEX CPX ACL 20 196 1.95 139
James Gonzalez OAK CPX ACL 20 126 3.36 125
Reny Artiles CLE CPX ACL 19 125 3.07 93
Sonny Vargas SFG CPX ACL 20 115 3.66 112
Manuel Mercedes SFG CPX ACL 18 114 3.66 107
Cristian Mena CHW CPX ACL 18 113 3.62 104
Freddery Paulino SFG CPX ACL 20 110 3.83 107
Esmerlin Vinicio SFG CPX ACL 18 108 3.78 98
Porter Hodge CHC CPX ACL 20 107 3.83 102

Gabriel Aguilera actually turns 21 today (happy birthday!), but he was 20 on my data pull from FanGraphs so here he is! As suggested by his otherworldly 286 Outsider+ rating in the ACL, Aguilera has moved on to full-season ball with the Low-A Daytona Tortugas. This Venezuelan righty is one to keep an eye on as he works his way up the minor league ladder.

Nick Lockhart began his season in the bullpen for the Low-A Down East Wood Ducks, where he struggled out of the gate with an 11.09 ERA. However, since being demoted to the ACL, he's been starting (4 out of 5 appearances). If you look past his surface stats, he has been performing really well in that starting role with a 1.95 Estimated ERA. His K-BB% is a stellar 34.2% in the complex.

Lockhart is a big time athlete, listed at 6'6", 204 lbs. In high school, he was also an excellent football player where he played both ways as a tight end/defensive end. He's way under the radar right now, but look for him as a bounce-back candidate in 2022 based on his ACL performance this year.

Manuel Mercedes is a lanky Dominican right-hander who made his stateside debut this season. Baseball America listed him as a prospect with his stock on the rise this season, noting that his fastball has touched 98 mph. He's also been above average at both throwing strikes and generating swinging strikes this season, suggesting that he might have the potential for good control to go with his promising stuff.

Cristian Mena was a top signing in the White Sox international free agent class of 2019. He's already pitching stateside despite being just 18 years old. His ERA is brutal (over 8!), but his Estimated ERA of 3.62 shows the danger of relying on ERA over small samples. He's throwing a lot of strikes, not walking many batters, and getting an above average amount of ground balls so far in his stateside debut.

Esmerlin Vinicio is another young Giants arm. He doesn't turn 19 until January of 2022. He's posted a sparkling 2.61 ERA through 9 starts so far in his stateside debut. Vinicio was one of the top left-handed pitchers in the 2019 international free agent class. He's long and lanky with a good changeup. Look for him to add some good weight and velocity as he continues his development.

Florida Complex League

Name Team Level League Age OUT+ EstRA ZnDm+
Po-Yu Chen PIT CPX FCL 19 204 1.99 149
Jean Pinto BAL CPX FCL 20 183 2.09 108
Wilkelman Gonzalez BOS CPX FCL 19 156 2.66 125
Juan Carela NYY CPX FCL 19 151 2.71 116
Yaifer Perdomo TOR CPX FCL 19 143 2.99 122
Raul Rangel BAL CPX FCL 18 138 3.20 131
Juan Daniel Encarnacion BOS CPX FCL 20 127 3.42 119
Yordy Richard STL CPX FCL 18 125 3.50 119
Rainiery Rodriguez ATL CPX FCL 20 113 3.94 114

Po-Yu Chen is a Taiwanese righty who has looked fantastic in his stateside debut so far in 2021. He has made six starts for the FCL Pirates Black squad. Chen has good size and a starting pitcher's build. He repeats his delivery very well and has the feel for spinning a breaking ball that makes batters uncomfortable. Definitely an "arrows up" pitching prospect.

Wilkelman Gonzalez is a Venezuelan righty that the Red Sox signed back in the 2018 IFA period. The Red Sox have used him as a traditional starter in both the DSL and FCL, which is a good sign for his future pitching role. He will be climbing up prospect rankings lists this offseason. I'm impressed by his Zone Dominance in the FCL as a teenager.

Juan Carela is a name you should remember simply because he's another international pitching prospect in a Yankees system that seems to get good results with these types of arms. He's been bumped up to the Low-A Tampa Tarpons after a successful run in the complex league to start the 2021 season.

Raul Rangel is really throwing strikes and generating whiffs, posting an eye-popping 131 ZoneDominance+ rating this year. He doesn't turn 19 until October. He's very athletic and has plenty of room to add muscle to his 6'3" frame.

Yordy Richard was signed by the Cardinals as part of their 2019 international free agent class. He actually started the year as an 18-year-old with the Low-A Palm Beach Cardinals, but went back to the complex when the complex leagues opened up this summer. He got work as a reliever in Low-A, but has switched to a starting role in the FCL where he's performing much better. He's a muscular righty that can run his fastball up to the mid-90s at present.

Dominican Summer League

Name Team Level League Age OUT+ EstRA ZnDm+
Victor Juarez COL DSL DSL 18 402 0.89 148
Jose Cedeno WSN DSL DSL 19 227 1.68 129
Joel Diaz NYM DSL DSL 17 185 2.16 128
Raynardo Cruz CIN DSL DSL 19 181 2.25 132
Mikell Manzano SFG DSL DSL 18 170 2.45 139
Hansel Rincon ARI DSL DSL 18 162 2.61 135
Stiven Cruz MIL DSL DSL 19 156 2.67 125
Edwin Jimenez MIL DSL DSL 19 151 2.82 127
Anthony Morillo BAL DSL DSL 19 148 2.90 131
Oswald Medina PHI DSL DSL 19 148 2.83 124

It's tough to say just how much one should care about pitching statistics from the Dominican Summer League. That being said, Victor Juarez's season for the DSL Rockies so far has been eye-popping from a statistical standpoint. In a league where the average Swinging Strike% is extremely high to begin with, Juarez has posted a Swinging Strike% that's 81 percentage points better than league average. He's also just refusing to walk anyone, with a BB% standing a full 261 percentage points above average for the league. Juarez was the top prospect out of Mexico in the 2019 IFA class.

Joel Diaz of the DSL Mets has impressed out of the gate as a 17-year-old. He's a Dominican hurler that doesn't turn 18 years old until February of 2022! He's got a great, athletic frame and could possibly be making his stateside debut next summer.

Mikell Manzano of the DSL Giants is another player to watch. Giants' International Scouting Director Joe Salermo identified Manzano as a player to watch on a recent episode of Roger Munter's "There R Giants" podcast. He is throwing a ton of strikes and he's also generating a bunch of whiffs so far in his professional debut.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!




More Fantasy Baseball Prospects and Rookies




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF