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The Cut List – Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 13

Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

There are just two weeks left in the fantasy football regular season for most leagues. Many of you may already find yourselves in a win-or-go-home situation and if that's you, the only thing that matters is your starting lineup for Week 13. Time to be bold!

As you start looking to put in your waiver claims for the week, be sure to start paying attention to playoff matchups, as long as you're lucky enough to already have a playoff spot wrapped up.

Let’s look at some of the players you can safely send to the waiver wire for Week 13. We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 13. As always if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.

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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 13?

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – 80% Rostered

Aaron Rodgers may or may not start next week. He may or may not be done for the entire 2022 NFL season. Maybe his career, although that’s not what we’re here to talk about. The point is fantasy managers can safely move on from Rodgers going into Week 13.

Since his Week 1 catastrophe where he scored just 3.7 points, Rodgers had been a dependable, if very unexciting, option at the quarterback position. He’s scored between 11.84 points and 19.36 points from Weeks 2 – 11. He’s never scored more than 20 once this season and he’s only ever been over 17 points on two occasions. There essentially has been no ceiling possibility with Rodgers in your starting lineup, but outside of Week 1, he’s been fairly dependable.

However, dealing with an avulsion fracture on the thumb of his throwing hand and now a rib/oblique injury, fantasy managers need to be moving on. Even if he starts in Week 13, which is still on the table, but even if he starts, he’s one bad hit from exiting for Jordan Love.

That’s technically true for any quarterback, but we’re not talking about a concussion or torn ACL kind of hit. We’ve seen Justin Herbert play with fractured ribs. This is commonplace for quarterbacks. If Rodgers takes a hit like that in Week 13 with their season all but over, is he going back in? Is head coach Matt LaFleur sending him back out there? It’s a major risk.

As is wondering if Rodgers will even be good in Week 13. I’m not talking healthy “good”, I’m talking good “good”. He hasn’t played very well this season and now if he’s managing a rib injury on top of the injury to his thumb on his throwing hand, based on what he’s put on film and in the box score this season, fantasy managers shouldn’t want any part of rolling the dice here.

 

Running Backs to Cut in Week 13?

Kenyan Drake, Baltimore Ravens – 60% Rostered

One thing we know for certain, the Baltimore Ravens prefer Gus Edwards over Kenyan Drake. That much is very, very clear. In Week 6, Drake took control of the backfield after J.K. Dobbins left early due to injury. He went on to record 127 total yards on 11 touches and 1 touchdown. Pretty darn good performance. The very next week, in Gus Edwards’ very first appearance of the 2022 season after tearing his ACL in 2021, the Ravens decided to give Edwards 16 touches. He finished with 66 yards and two touchdowns. Drake had 11 carries and 5 yards.

In Week 8, Edwards injured his hamstring and left the contest early. Prior to that, he once again led the Ravens' backfield in touches and yards. However, in Week 9, Drake exploded again. This time for 109 total yards on 26 touches and found the end zone. The team had their bye in Week 10 and Edwards was ruled out for Week 11, a game where Drake finished with 53 scoreless yards on 12 touches.

In Week 12, it was the Edwards show again. In his first game back from his hamstring injury, he received 16 carries, finishing with 52 yards and a score. Drake had two attempts for two yards. What this tells me is that as long as Edwards is healthy, it’s backfield and Drake is mostly irrelevant.

On top of that, the team opened up the 21-day activation window for Dobbins clearing the way for him to return in Week 13 or 14. Even if Dobbins is brought along slowly, fantasy managers should expect Dobbins to work ahead of Drake as the No. 2 rusher to Edwards. Either way, Drake can safely be cut now that Edwards is healthy again and Dobbins is on the verge of returning.

 

Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 13?

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – 74% Rostered

In the first nine weeks of the season, Curtis Samuel had not played fewer than 71% of the team’s snaps on any given week. During that team, he averaged a snap share of 80.4%. Over the past three weeks, his highest snap share has been 64% and his average is 61.5%. That’s a big problem.

From Weeks 1–9, Samuel averaged 7.33, 5 receptions, and 50.5 receiving yards per game. Over the past three weeks, those numbers have dropped to 2 targets, 1 reception, and 12.67 yards per game. Whenever there is a noticeable shift like that, it’s important we try to explain why it happened. If it cannot be explained, there’s a chance it’s just a bad spell and we should stay the course.

Unfortunately for Samuel, Week 10, which was the start of his three-game skid coincides with rookie Jahan Dotson’s return to the field. Starting tight end, Logan Thomas also returned in Week 10. Why does this matter? Since Week 10, it’s been Dotson staying on the field in two wide receiver sets, which explains Samuel’s decrease in playing time. He’s now the full-time slot receiver, but with Thomas’ return, the Commanders have been using 12-personnel more, which has also limited Samuel’s playing time. He’s essentially been phased out of the passing game and fantasy managers can do the same with him in regard to their fantasy rosters.

Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens – 54% Rostered

In the first three weeks of the season, Lamar Jackson averaged 249.67 passing yards and 3.33 touchdowns per game. Since that time, those numbers have fallen to 185.25 and 0.88 touchdowns per game. With these kinds of team passing numbers, it’s going to be borderline impossible for any player, even Mark Andrews, to have consistent value. This passing offense is in a funk right now and there’s little reason to believe it ends any time soon and even if it does, it’s unlikely to be Devin Duvernay reaping the rewards.

Despite playing 74.4% of the team’s snaps in games where Rashod Bateman was not active, Duvernay earned just 19 targets across five contests. This amounts to 3.8 targets per game. It should also be noted 12 of those 19 targets came in Weeks 5 and 6. He’s amassed just seven targets in the past three games.

During these five games sans Bateman, Duvernay has averaged 3.96 half-PPR PPG. There is simply not enough volume or productivity in Baltimore’s passing attack for fantasy managers to start any pass-catcher not named Mark Andrews. In fact, there’s very little reason at all to roster anyone else.

Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs – 53% Rostered

Am I intrigued by Kadarius Toney’s skillset? Yes. Has he shown glimpses of being able to be a productive fantasy player? Yes. Could head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes raise that bar even higher? Yes. Do I think any of that happens during the fantasy football season? No, I do not.

He had a chance. In just his second game with the Chiefs, Toney finished with 5 targets, 4 receptions, 57 yards, and 1 touchdown. On top of that, he also chipped in 33 rushing yards. The following week JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman would both miss the contest, putting Toney in a prime position to potentially be a league-winner. Instead, he left the game early with another hamstring injury.

I’m not a believer in the whole “injury-prone” moniker, but Toney is really testing my belief. Whether he is or isn’t doesn’t really matter though. That isn’t the question we need to be asking ourselves. The important question is, do we think Toney can get healthy, and earn regular playing time that translates into a weekly target share that is reliable enough for fantasy managers to feel comfortable putting him into their starting lineups in the next 3–4 weeks? To that, I say no. He might not play again until Week 14 or 15.

 

Tight Ends to Cut in Week 13?

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – 88% Rostered

There are reports the team could elect to shut Matthew Stafford down for the season, a likely outcome given their current standing and the state of their offensive line. The offense had been poor with Stafford, ranking 29th in total points, 31st in total yards, 25th in total passing yards, and 23rd in passing touchdowns, but all of those numbers were with Stafford at the helm and Cooper Kupp mostly in the lineup.

With Bryce Perkins under center, the Rams threw the ball just 23 times in Week 12 and finished with just 100 yards. Of those 23 attempts, Higbee ran just 10 routes and finished with zero targets. Even at the beginning of the season when Higbee was absolutely being peppered with targets, he still failed to make much of a fantasy impact. In the first five weeks of the season when he was the second-most targeted tight end in the NFL, he was still just TE7 in half-PPR.

Now, with the Rams shifting more to a run-heavy offense and having to deal with significantly worse quarterback play, Higbee can safely be dropped from fantasy rosters. There's little to zero weekly upside and if you're out there hoping for a touchdown, there are better offenses to target.

 

Hold On

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots – 81% Rostered

Jakobi Meyers is on a bit of a cold streak and because of that his proverbial seat on fantasy rosters might be getting, but fantasy managers should absolutely be holding right now. In Week 12, Meyers ended up hurting his shoulder and was in and (mostly) out of the lineup. He played just 16 of 55 snaps. Despite the limited snap share, he still managed to finish with four targets. He was effective with those targets too. He caught three of them for 62 yards and finished with 7.7 half-PPR points. That's certainly not what fantasy managers were expecting, but considering he played just 29% of the snaps, it has to be considered a pretty solid outcome.

In his two games prior to Week 12, he also failed to score more than 10 points. As unfortunate as the cold spell has been, Meyers' role hasn't changed within the New England offense. On the snaps he played this past Thursday, he finished with a 25% target share. In Weeks 9 and 11, he had 20.7% and 22.2% target shares, respectively. In fact, in nine games this season, Meyers has had a target share north of 20% in seven of them. In three of them, he recorded a target share higher than 38%. From Weeks 1–8, Meyers averaged 13 half-PPR PPG, which was tied for 13th-best among receivers. He's still the focal part of this passing offense. Fantasy managers definitely need to be holding. As far as his injury from Thursday, he was limited in practice on Monday, a good sign for his availability this upcoming weekend.

 

On the Hot Seat

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos, Denver Broncos – 82% Rostered

Jerry Jeudy and his ankle injury continue to put fantasy managers in such a tough spot. He was injured early in Week 10 and has missed the last two weeks. He has yet to return to practice in any capacity, which doesn't exactly bode well for his Week 13 availability. He struggled with injuries a bit early in the season too, playing just 14% and 59% of the team's snaps in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.

However, in Weeks 1 and 4–8, Jeudy averaged 12.3 half-PPR PPG. On the season, that would rank as the WR17. Cutting a player who was performing as a solid WR2 is a very difficult thing to do. No one wants to do it, but how confident are fantasy managers going to be in putting Jeudy back into their lineup in the fantasy playoffs?

This is the dilemma for fantasy managers who roster Jeudy. Assuming he doesn't play again in Week 13, this leaves just one more week before the start of the fantasy football playoffs in Week 15. If you're in the playoff race, a win-or-go-home situation, cutting Jeudy may be something you need to entertain. I'd prefer to hang onto Jeudy if possible, but he's running out of time to be a useful asset for fantasy managers. Assuming his first game back comes with him being on a snap count, he won't be able to be started with confidence until Week 15. Which is to say nothing of the overall state of the Denver offense and Russell Wilson.



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