Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Will Warren, Cade Horton, Jacob Lopez

June 18, 2025

Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 12 in 2025, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 12 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.

The baseball world was shocked by the Rafael Devers trade on Sunday, so much so that many surprising starts got overlooked. This week we've got three exciting arms to look at. First, we'll deep dive into Will Warren's strong start on Thursday. Then, we'll break down Cade Horton's strong showing against the Pirates on Friday. We'll finish off by looking at Jacob Lopez's emergence for the Athletics.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 16.

Will Warren, New York Yankees

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 57.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 18.4% K-BB%

6/12 @ KC: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Warren was excellent on Thursday, blanking the Royals over 5 2/3 in a no-decision. It was only the second time all year that Warren allowed zero runs in an outing, and he lowered his ERA to 4.86 in the process. Warren had been struggling prior to this start, having put up a 7.16 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in the three starts before this one, including a seven-run shellacking at the hands of the Dodgers on May 31.

Warren has flashed some big upside at times this season, but will this volatile arm figure it out?

Originally an eighth-round draft pick by the Yankees back in 2021, Warren had some prospect pedigree coming into the season. Fangraphs ranked him as the 65th-best prospect in baseball back in February. Warren had some impressive strikeout numbers in the minors, and those have translated to the majors with an 11.29 K/9 in 14 starts.

Warren works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, changeup, and curveball.

Warren’s most-used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, which he’s thrown 37.8% of the time this season and threw 47% of the time against Kansas City on Thursday. A 93.3 mph offering, Warren’s four-seamer has relatively average movement, but above average spin at 2555 RPM.

Opponents have really struggled against this pitching, batting just .156 with a .267 SLG and .250 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Warren has earned these results with a  .190 xBA, .311 xSLG, and .281 xwOBA.

How does Warren do it? Extreme launch angle. He has a 25-degree average launch angle against his four-seamer this season, along with a 46.4% fly-ball rate. Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, so this can be a fruitful strategy we’ve seen pitchers take over the years. But it’s a dangerous game to play, especially pitching home games in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium.

Warren has only allowed 0.86 HR/9 this season, but he allowed 1.99 HR/9 in the majors and 1.56 HR/9 at Triple-A in 2024. His current 10.3% HR/9 is only slightly below league average, so maybe Warren can maintain his current home run rate, but it will remain a risk for him with this pitching style.

His most-used secondary offering is the sweeper, an 82.7 mph offering that he’s thrown 23.7% of the time. It’s been one of his go-to strikeout pitches, but the results on this pitch have been odd, to say the least. Batters are hitting .321 off Warren’s sweeper with a .491 SLG and .384 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that regression is coming, with a .258 xBA, .412 xSLG, and .329 xwOBA.

Warren also has flyball tendencies with this pitch, with batters putting up a 19-degree average launch angle against and a 38.5% fly-ball rate. Warren has probably been unlucky with the pitch, as he has a .421 BABIP against his slider this season, versus a .214 BABIP off his four-seamer.

Warren has an impressive 11.29 K/9 on the year, which is why I expected better underlying numbers from his sweeper. He got one measly whiff with the pitch in this start against Kansas City, and has just an 11.2% swinging-strike rate and a 23.4% chase rate with his sweeper this season.

I’m impressed that Warren has been able to sustain such a high strikeout rate this season, given the poor whiff numbers on his primary breaking ball. Overall, he has just a 10.3% swinging-strike rate, and he only has 12 combined strikeouts over his last three outings. Warren has some great strikeout numbers in the minors, so he may be able to sustain this, but the underlying numbers suggest that strikeout regression could be coming.

Another issue with Warren is his short leash. Sure, he can give you strikeouts, but he’s only completed six frames once all year in 14 starts. He pitched 7.1 innings against the Athletics on 5/9/25, and since then, he’s averaged just over four innings per start.

The fact that he pitches for a good team is almost wasted by his inability to go deep into games. He’s only managed four wins despite being on a first-place club.

He’s always liable to give up some runs, as evidenced by his 4.86 ERA on the year and 10.97 in the three starts leading up to this one. There is a place for volatile, high-strikeout pitches like Warren in fantasy, but sharp managers use them strategically.

If you are down in a week and can afford to risk your ratios, or need a Hail Mary start, then a guy like Warren is perfect. He is much better in H2H and points leagues than Roto because you don’t want to eat those ratios all year.

One pitch that stands out for Warren is one that he rarely uses, the curveball. He’s only thrown it 6.6% of the time this season, mainly to lefties, but he has gotten some astonishing results. Batters are hitting .188 off the pitch with a .188 SLG and .187 wOBA. The expected stats are somehow better, with a .134 xBA, .160 xSLG, and .162 xwOBA.

Boasting plus horizontal movement, this pitch has a monster 51.6% whiff rate.

Batters are swinging right through it, and things go poorly even when they make contact. Warren has an 81.8 mph average exit velocity and an -8-degree average launch angle against his curveball. Basically, batters are hitting it weakly into the ground, if they make contact at all.

Some of Warren’s best starts this season have correlated with higher curveball usage, and it would be nice to see him incorporate the pitch more frequently. With numbers like these, how could he not?

Verdict:

There aren’t a lot of starting pitchers on waivers with a K/9 above 11, and that alone makes Warren stand out. He’s too volatile to trust every time—he surrendered seven earned runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Dodgers back on 5/31—but there is certainly value to be had with a pitcher like Warren. He is best used as a situational streamer because he has both a big upside and a big downside.

If you are behind in a weekly matchup or can afford to risk your ratios, then it may be worth rolling the dice on Warren, especially against a team like Kansas City. If you are trying to protect ratios, you can steer clear, because Warren is susceptible to a blow-up now and then.

The underlying numbers don’t support the high strikeout rate, but a long minor league track record and a nasty, nasty curveball suggest that Warren can sustain this despite underwhelming whiff and chase rates.

Unfortunately, he has a relatively short leash as he’s only completed six innings or more once all season. His rotation spot could also be in jeopardy if the Yankees acquire a pitcher, or Luis Gil or Marcus Stroman return from injury and take it. Use him as a streamer when the situation makes sense, but don't roll him out every time.

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs – 27% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 30.2 IP, 4.11 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 13.6% K-BB%

6/13 vs. PIT: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Horton had the best start of his young career on Friday, blanking the Buccos over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision. It was the first time that Horton appeared in a game without allowing an earned run. The youngster lowered his ERA to 3.47 and seems to have earned himself a spot in the Cubs’ rotation, at least until the return of Shota Imanaga.

Do we hear anything in Horton, or is he just a who?

The seventh overall pick in 2022, Horton was a big-deal prospect for the Cubs coming into 2025. Fangraphs had Horton as the 79th-best prospect in baseball coming into the year, just 14 spots behind Will Warren. Horton works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, curveball, changeup, and sinker.

He rarely throws the sinker at just 2.1% usage this season, but he does mix in the rest of his pitches often, throwing each of them at least 11% of the time.

Let’s start with Horton’s four-seamer, which is his most-used pitch. He’s thrown the four-seamer 51.3% of the time this season and used it 53% of the time against Pittsburgh. A 95.6 mph offering, Horton’s fastball is notable for its plus velocity and extreme horizontal movement.

Horton is eight inches below average for horizontal movement on his four-seamer, giving it an atypical shape. Have a look at Horton’s movement profile from this season (four-seamer in red).

It really deviates from league average, which can be a good thing as a unique fastball shape can increase deceptiveness and make the pitch hard to square up. Unfortunately for Horton, batters have had no trouble with his four-seamer this season. Opponents are hitting .353 with a .456 SLG and .368 wOBA off Horton’s four-seamer this season.

They also have a 92 mph average exit velocity and a 23% line drive rate off the pitch. He could see some improvement on his .377 BABIP against the pitch, which would lower the batting average, but the fact remains that batters are striking the pitch well. Horton’s fastball was not considered his strength as a prospect, and thus far, it’s been a liability.

The fastball may be getting knocked around, but his secondary pitches have been excellent this season. His most-used secondary pitch is his sweeper, which he throws 21.6% of the time. Opponents are hitting just .200 off this pitch with a .457 SLG and .312 wOBA. He hasn’t given up many hits, but he has surrendered three home runs on this pitch so far.

He’s only given up four home runs total, so it’s hard to say whether this is a fluke or an issue with the pitch.

Perhaps he just hung a few sweepers at the wrong moment, or perhaps he can’t consistently locate the pitch. Horton only has a 5.2% BB rate in the majors, but he had some spotty command in the minors and could’ve struggled at times to locate the pitch. I’m not overly concerned about Horton’s home run rate, so the home run rate on his sweeper doesn’t scare me away.

The sweeper also has a strong 40% whiff rate, and he earned five of nine whiffs with it in this start. He primarily throws it to right-handed batters, and it’s been an excellent out tool for him.

Another pitch that has worked wonders for Horton is his changeup, which he throws almost exclusively to left-handed batters. An 87.8 mph offering, Horton’s changeup has some exceptional vertical movement, 3.8 inches off league average.

This has made it incredibly difficult for batters to square up, and he has a 72.8 mph average exit velocity and a 1-degree average launch angle against this pitch. Weak groundballs are a great result to get.

He also has an unheard-of 67.7% whiff rate with the pitch, a rate that is definitely inflated due to small sample size, but is impressive nonetheless. Overall, batters are hitting .071 with a .143 SLG and .166 wOBA off this pitch. He has increased his changeup usage to 14.3% since May 21, but I’d like to see him use this pitch even more.

The outcomes will not be as favorable over a larger sample size, but this seems like a strong offering that he can use to neutralize lefties.

The changeup isn’t his only option against lefties either, as Horton has gotten some great results on his curveball this year, too. Batters are hitting just .174 with a .174 SLG and .177 wOBA against Horton’s curveball. The 86.7 mph average exit velocity suggests that batters are struggling to strike the ball well and make consistently weak contact. His whiff rate is a more normal 28.2% with this pitch, but it seems like a great pitch to round out the repertoire.

The movement again deviates from the norm, with plus vertical and horizontal movement. Like the changeup, he primarily uses the pitch against lefties, but it’s been great in its intended purpose.

Verdict:

It’s easy to see why the Oklahoma product was such a highly touted prospect. With plus fastball velocity and a trio of effective secondary offerings, he has a deep repertoire that should play as an MLB starter. His biggest liability seems to be the fastball, which batters are hitting .353 against.

We can probably expect some regression on its .377 BABIP to lower that BA, but what I’d really like to see is less reliance on the four-seamer and more secondary usage. Batters are hitting .200 or under against all three breaking balls, and Horton has some impressive whiff numbers to go along with it.

Horton is definitely still a work in progress, but there is plenty of talent here. I’d be looking to take a chance on Horton in deeper leagues and even in standard 12-team leagues if I needed to take a shot. Look out for him in the coming years as a potential breakout candidate.

Jacob Lopez, Athletics – 2% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 24 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 16.5% K-BB%

6/14 @ KC: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Lopez was phenomenal on Saturday, fanning nine Royals en route to his first victory of the season and first as an Athletic. Lopez was converted from the bullpen to the rotation and has put up some bizarre numbers since then.

In six starts, he’s put up a 5.61 ERA, 12.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 2.1 HR/9 along with a 4.18 xFIP. So, mostly bad, but that 12.3 K/9 is looking awfully juicy. Is the juice worth the squeeze, or will Lopez sour your ratios?

Originally a 26th-round pick by the Giants back in 2018, it’s quite frankly a miracle that Lopez has made it this far. Suffice it to say, he was not included on the Fangraphs top-100 prospect list coming into the season like Warren and Horton.

He made a few appearances in 2023-24 with Tampa Bay before being acquired by the Athletics in the Jeffrey Springs trade, where he earned a rotation spot mostly by necessity for the A’s. Lopez works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, and changeup.

Lopez’s most-used pitch is the four-seam fastball, and it’s a weird one. Averaging just 90.6 mph on the gun, Lopez has extreme vertical and horizontal movement with the pitch. Have a look at his 2025 movement profile (four-seamer in red).

That thing really deviates from league average, and with a low arm angle, it can be hard for hitters to handle, even with poor velocity. Have a look at his four-seam heatmaps from this year as well.

Lopez hammers the pitch in high, which can make it appear harder than it actually is. Batters really struggle against the high cheese from Lopez. Have a look at his whiff rate heatmap.

Those are some impressive numbers, and overall, Lopez has a 29.8% whiff rate with his four-seamer, which is pretty high for a fastball. Batters can’t make solid contact with it either, as Lopez has an 84.7 mph average exit velocity against the pitch, along with a 22-degree average launch angle against it. Altogether, batters are hitting .256 with a .558 SLG and .418 wOBA off the pitch.

That suggests that while Lopez does a good job limiting hard contact most of the time, if he executes poorly, the results could be loud and bad for your ratios. It’s always bad to miss with a fastball, but it’s even worse when you’re throwing 90. He does have a .199 xBA and .350 BABIP against his fastball, so those numbers could come down, but ultimately, Lopez is susceptible to power and home runs.

His most-used secondary pitch is the slider, which Lopez throws 31.8% of the time. A soft 78.7 mph, the slider has rather average movement and spin, and has the same exact whiff rate as his fastball at 29.8%. That whiff rate is a lot less impressive on a slider, which I usually like to see at 33% or higher to truly be a strikeout offering.

Batters are hitting .277 off the pitch with a .383 SLG and .312 wOBA, and the expected stats are even better with a .215 xBA, .271 xSLG, and .240 xwOBA. He has an 83.2 mph average exit velocity against this pitch, which is why I could easily see the current .387 BABIP dropping significantly. The slider isn’t his best strikeout pitch, but it could get much better results going forward, given these numbers.

I tend to like pitchers with extreme skill sets in one regard or another, and Lopez certainly qualifies thanks to his fly-ball tendencies. He has a microscopic 17.7% ground-ball rate on the year, the second-lowest among pitchers this season (min. 30 IP), and he’s the only starting pitcher below 25%.

Lopez not only allows weak contact with an 87.8 mph average exit velocity against, but he also has a 26.8-degree average launch angle against and a 59.5% fly-ball rate.

This pitching profile would’ve been a lot more favorable if the A’s were still in the Coliseum, but it can still be a benefit even in a smaller ballpark. Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, and that is especially true when they are weak flyballs. That’s Lopez’s approach, and it can be highly successful, but it comes with risk.

He’s allowed 1.8 HR/9 this season and 2.1 HR/9 as a starter. He went through a rough stretch where he allowed six in three games earlier this season, but it’s too early to put that behind him. One miss on his 90 mph heater or a hanging 78 mph slider, and boom, it’s gone.

Lopez’s fastball may be one source of his strikeouts, but it’s not the only source. He has gotten some strong results with his changeup this season as well. Batters are hitting .250 off the pitch with a .250 SLG and .222 wOBA. He also has a 33.3% whiff rate with the changeup, his highest of any pitch.

Unlike his other pitches, however, batters are hitting the changeup hard. He has a 95.2 mph average exit velocity against the pitch and a .354 xBA and .449 xSLG. It’s a pretty small sample size at just 41 pitches thrown and four batted ball events, but still worth noting. I’d expect the exit velocity to normalize with a larger sample, and if it does, this could be a great third option against opposite-handed batters.

Verdict:

Lopez is a very unique pitcher; there aren’t many in the majors like him. He racks up strikeouts thanks to his wonky 90.6 mph fastball that he hammers up high to great success. His soft slider can get whiffs, too, but not better than league average. Looking at his arsenal, there’s no way one would predict a 29% strikeout rate, but that’s what Lopez has put up so far.

He could be a ratio liability and a home run liability, as his extreme flyball tendencies can lead to power surges against him. Extreme flyball tendencies can also lead to great success in generating outs, so it’s a double-edged sword for Lopez, one he should gladly wield as these extreme tendencies are one of the only things keeping him in the majors.

Lopez is kind of like Will Warren in that he’s best deployed when behind in a week or trying to catch up in H2H or points.

He is risky, volatile, and can put up some big starts like we saw on Saturday. He’s only 2% rostered, so he could be a sneaky add in deep leagues or AL-only leagues if he’s still out there. Look at the 29% K rate and 3.66 SIERA, not the 4.80 ERA.

In those deeper leagues, Lopez is a great pitcher to have on your bench for when you want to take a chance or he has a two-start week. In standard leagues, he’s a high-risk streamer, but a risk worth taking in the right circumstances.

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