X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Sophomore Quarterbacks Set to Bust Again in Fantasy Football

Mac Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Justin looks at second-year NFL QBs who are likely to bust again in fantasy football during the 2022 NFL season.

Not every NFL rookie will be good. Adjusting to the speed and physicality of the NFL is tough. Sometimes, it takes a player a little bit to adjust.

Take Trevor Lawrence, for instance. Bad coaching and a bad supporting cast meant that Lawrence threw an NFL-worst 17 interceptions last season. But with an offseason of growth, a new coach, and a handful of new targets for him, we all believe that Lawrence will be better this year, right?

The same can't be said for every second-year player. Below are three second-year quarterbacks who aren't in line for major improvement.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Zach Wilson - New York Jets

The Jets took Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick last year. It was a confusing pick at the time because Justin Fields just seemed obviously better than Wilson.

One year later, that decision still looks bad. Fields completed a higher percentage of his passes than Wilson. Fields threw fewer touchdowns, but also fewer interceptions. Fields had a higher ANY/A, and while he had fewer yards per game, some of that is due to play calling, as the Bears threw the 10th-fewest passes and the Jets threw the 13th-most.

Anyway, enough of my "Fields should have gone second" rant. Maybe someday I'll stop ranting about that.

When it comes to Zach Wilson, we're looking at a QB who started 13 games as a rookie and threw for just 2,334 yards with nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He completed 55.6% of his passes.

Among the rookie QBs to start double-digit games, Wilson had the lowest completion percentage, the second-lowest touchdown rate, and the second-highest interception rate.

The Jets spent a first-round pick on wide receiver Garrett Wilson, but it often takes a bit for rookie wideouts to get going. They also added tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency.

But are those additions enough to help Wilson take a step forward?

Probably not. Per PlayerProfiler, Wilson was inaccurate despite throwing the kind of passes that you should be accurate at. He was 21st among QBs in air yards per attempt. Shorter passes are the kind of thing you should be completing, right? But instead, he was 27th in true completion percentage.

In fact, his deep ball was actually a kind of saving grace, as he was fifth in deep ball accuracy rating and 15th in deep ball completion percentage. And that...really just highlights how bad he was at throwing the ball in the short and medium passing game, which was bad. If Wilson was struggling with accuracy on his deep ball but was doing fine in the short/medium game, I'd feel better than when it's swapped around like this.

 

Mac Jones - New England Patriots

I was hesitant to include Jones on this list because he wasn't a bust last year. But here's something we need to remember when talking about fantasy sports: "bust" can mean different things.

In real life, Jones has shown that he can be a reliable game manager. You can win with game managers. Game managers can stick around the league for a long time.

But this is RotoBaller.com. RotoBaller is a fantasy sports website. We're not here to talk about how Mac Jones can lead the Patriots to the postseason. We're here to talk about fantasy football.

And when it comes to fantasy, I just don't see the upside with Jones. The Patriots threw the eighth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL last season, and while Jones completed a respectable 67.6% of his passes, which was eighth in the league, he was 17th in passing yards per game among qualifying quarterbacks.

Per PlayerProfiler, Jones suffered from accuracy issues in the red zone and on his deep ball. He actually threw deeper than people might expect, ranking 11th in air yards per attempt, but that didn't really convert to production in the way that you'd like. He can definitely improve on that, but the bigger issue is with his legs.

Running quarterbacks get more fantasy points than non-running quarterbacks because the formula for fantasy points per yard makes it easier to get those points on the ground.

Among quarterbacks, Jones was 28th in rushing attempts per game at 2.6 and 38th in red zone carries per game at 0.4. He finished with 7.6 rushing yards per game, 33rd in the NFL, and zero rushing scores.

With absolutely zero rushing upside, Jones has to make a major leap as a passer to have fantasy value. I know that the Patriots are talking like that might happen:

But how "dramatic" is Belichick talking? Unless he suddenly starts running, he has to become one of the league's best pure passers in order to have fantasy value. His ceiling is Matt Ryan, except in an offense that is very, very, very different than the offense that made Ryan succeed in Atlanta.

 

Davis Mills - Houston Texans

I'm a Texans fan, so I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic about Davis Mills as the Texans starter.

But when it comes to the actual stats that he'll put up, Mills just isn't in a position to succeed.

You can find a good number of people who say that Mills was the best non-Mac Jones rookie QB last year. But like Jones, Mills suffers from "doesn't-run-the-ball-itis," but to an even worse degree. Per PlayerProfiler, Mills ranked 51st among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game at 3.4.

THREE. POINT. FOUR.

If Jones offers no upside as a runner, Mills offers negative upside. He'll lose more points from fumbles than he'll gain from rushing yards.

So like Jones, Mills has to be uber-effective as a passer. But Jones had a higher completion percentage and touchdown rate than Mills last year, and while neither has a great supporting cast, Mills enters 2022 with one of the NFL's worst collections of talents around him. Sure, he has the reliable Brandin Cooks, but the other receivers/tight ends on this team are Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Conley, Brevin Jordan, and Pharaoh Brown.

Who is Mills throwing to?

He's essentially Mac Jones with less upside. I want Mills to be good in the NFL, but even if he is good, he's got such an incredibly low ceiling when it comes to fantasy. There's at least a little path to him being better than Jones due to the Garbage Time Production Inflation Metric, but even that might not matter.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP