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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, March 1. Friday’s nine-game slate has hype to live up to. Thursday featured the third chapter of the Rookie of the Year race between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. While the comparisons on paper are eerily similar, Wembanyama nearly single-handedly won Thursday’s game for the Spurs, hitting a clutch three-pointer and locking up Holmgren with a final possession block that capped off a rare San Antonio victory.
Unfortunately, Thursday was also the last time we’ll see the two matchups this year since the fourth game of this series is April 10th, and neither player will likely play that late into the season. The Thunder are going to make the playoffs and won’t want to risk injury to their main core, while the Spurs would be smart to shut down Wembanyama earlier rather than later. Regardless, Wembanyama had Rookie of the Year squared away months ago.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Friday's nine-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, March 1
Tre Mann OVER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
With LaMelo Ball’s return right around the corner, it’s sad to say this will mark an abrupt end to the Tre Mann Experience. The level he’s been playing at recently will keep him in the rotation, but there’s only one basketball. Both Ball and Miles Bridges don’t share the ball despite being assist-only passers, and it has a negative impact on their teammate’s stats. That’s not their problem, but we do have to be aware when the problem itself becomes a more direct issue to players we prefer to bet on.
Mann has excelled at accumulating stats even in bad games, so although his REB prop is dangerously low, betting on his combination stats leaves wiggle room in case the ball literally doesn’t bounce his way. REBs can be fickle and random, but when a player has been playing well and is likely to lose his spot, there’s a great chance you’ll see increased output as a countermeasure.
Deni Avdija OVER 13.5 Points
February was the month of Avdija. We’re just five Wizards games removed from Deni Avdija’s 43-point, 15-REB game versus the Pelicans, and in his return from a three-game absence, he still put up 15 and 15 (PTs and REBs). Washington may not have won a game last month, but we don’t need wins, just PTs, and there have only been two games since February 1st where Avdija failed to hit this over.
The Clippers have been great all season, but an out-of-conference game versus one of the worst teams in the league shouldn’t warrant an all-hands-on-deck mentality. Hoping that some Clippers decide to rest here opens the door for Washington to actually have a chance to win, meaning Avdija will have all the exposure we need. If there’s any concern about the matchup, just note that the Clippers have struggled more defensively over the last two weeks than they have the entire season.
De'Aaron Fox OVER 30.5 Points + Assists
The Prop-Optimizer likes the under here, but over his last five games, De’Aaron Fox has hit his PTs and ASTs in all five. Clearly, the projections are based on defensive matchups, and obviously, there’s a reason why Minnesota’s defense is where it’s at. That still doesn’t mean they stop generational talents from scoring or producing, and just for fun, you can go check the game log between Fox and the Timberwolves and let that decide whether you think the under is still the way to go.
Betting on ASTs doesn’t mean you are just betting on one player, you need the rest of the Kings to be efficient as well and we both know how that’s gone before. Even when Fox isn’t hitting shots, he’s still finding ways to score. That’s not the case for the rest of Sacramento, and you don’t want to be caught in no man’s land, waiting on Fox’s ASTs to land when he’s the one doing the actual scoring. The assist prop is low, but Fox is scoring tonight, and we can’t let that just pass us by for the sake of a projection.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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