RADIO
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Question Submitted to RotoBaller
Need advice on a trade. I offered Strasburg in an attempt to acquire Albert Pujols. I've been hoping that I could grab Pujols as he seems to be heating up. I'm third in my league, but the guy in fourth has Puig and has moved from ten points behind me to three in the space of a single week. I'm not getting much from my first basemen (Rizzo cold, Moreland just off DL, just grabbed Konerko off waivers) so I feel I need to make a move to upgrade my offense. The guy returned a counteroffer of: Pujols, Kinsler, Liriano, Mark Reynolds and Brandon Morrow for my Darvish, Strasburg, Gomez, Kipnis, Donaldson There's no way I'm doing that. I'm considering a counteroffer of my Gomez, Iwakuma, Donaldson for Pujols. Good move?
- Player Pool: Mixed
- # of Teams: 12
- League Info and Categories: Yahoo! 12-team roto, 5x5, redraft
- Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 U, 5 BN, 1 DL
- Any Other League Details:
My roster: Victor Martinez (C), Rizzo (1B), Kipnis (2B), Zimmerman (3B), Franklin (SS), McCutchen (OF), Gomez (OF), Pence (OF), Revere (U), Konerko (U), Donaldson (B), Rendon (B), Moreland (B), Darvish (P), Strasburg (P), Iwakuma (P), Minor (P), Teheran (P), Mujica (RP), Gregg (RP), Bell (RP), Kluber (B), Pineda (B), Beachy (DL).
His roster: Santana (C), Goldschmidt (1B), Phillips (2B), Reynolds (3B), Hardy (SS), Cruz (OF), Dunn (OF), Ibanez (OF), Pujols (U), Lind (U), Liriano (P), Verlander (P), Rodney (RP), Nathan (RP), Janssen (RP), Lee (P), Colon (P), Gonzalez (P), Carp (B), Kinsler (B), McLouth (B), Sandoval (B), Masterson (B), Morrow (DL).
RotoBaller Detailed Analysis
- All three guys you're giving up have outperformed Pujols to date-- in the case of Iwakuma and CarGo Mini, each has put up elite numbers;
- The peripheral stats support Iwakuma's, Gomez's and Donaldson's performances to date;
- A few caveats: Iwakuma may give up some more hits and see his best-among-all-starters 0.89 WHIP rise a bit. Donaldson's BA will probably finish in the .285-.295 range, and Gomez's BA should finish in the .290 range, but overall each of these players has very strong underlying peripheral statistics, implying that each can easily maintain 85-90% of their current performance level over the rest of the season;
- Pujols has been much better in June with numbers close enough to his career norms to make you think it's possible he can continue it the rest of the year, but there are some underlying numbers that make me doubt this possibility: he is swinging and missing more often than he ever has before, and he is making less contact on pitches both inside of and outside of the zone than he ever has. He could finish the year with 30 HR, 105 RBI, and a .285 BA, which means he'll be very good down the stretch.
- However, a very good Pujols is just not enough for a borderline elite pitcher, a high-end outfielder and an above average 3B. You would need primetime elite Albert to make that deal worth it. It's not even clear that you're getting the best player in the deal-- likely, but not clear.
Net Net
I would stay away from the deal that you suggested, unless you could take CarGo Mini out and still get it done. Your team is really solid, and your collection of 1B should come around eventually-- don't overreact to a big week from the fourth-place team. At the same time, it's great to look for upgrades, but you don't need to take out huge chunks of your roster to get a past-his-prime slugger.
All the best,
Alex Roberts - RotoBaller.com
