X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

Rookie ADP Arbitrage - Running Back

Now that the 2018 NFL Draft has come and gone, it is the time of year where dynasty fantasy football prepare for their all-important rookie drafts. However, for beginning dynasty players or those entering a new league, a dynasty startup draft is how players get allocated to each owner. These drafts also occur at this time of year, and deciphering the value of certain players can be pretty tricky.

With a mix of new, unproven rookie players at each position joining veterans who vary in age and fantasy production, it is no easy task to decide which players to take during your drafts.

Year after year, young running backs are undervalued due to their unproven NFL skillset. However, with the way the league has transitioned in recent years, successful rookie running backs are becoming more and more dominant. Although they have a shorter shelf-life than other positions, young running backs are still the best bets to produce throughout their NFL careers. Using Fantasy Football Calculator's dynasty rankings, let's see if we can find some value plays that are rookies at the running back position.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Rookie ADP Arbitrage - RB

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Rashaad Penny was an unlikely first round selection in this year's NFL Draft, being picked 27th overall by the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks seem like a mediocre landing spot for running backs given the poor state of the offensive line and presence of veteran running backs who have the potential to steal touches from a rookie. These include second-year pro Chris Carson, pass-catchers C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic, and veteran runner Mike Davis. Although the Seahawks have a number of options at the position, none of them have been successful/injury-free at the NFL level. There is a reason why the team chose Penny in the first round - clearly, the team felt they needed a workhorse running back as their top need (and the Seahawks had a lot of needs to address). Penny brings a diverse skillset and was one of the most efficient backs in college football; however, he played for San Jose State and has been dinged for the lack of prestige of his opponents. Regardless, Penny is clearly talented enough to warrant high draft capital.

Although his ADP is expected to rise as the offseason continues, Penny still represents a value in dynasty startups. He is currently going in the mid-120s (right behind Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones); for a rookie running back who is expected to receive upwards of 250 touches in his first season, this is absurd. Penny is an absolute steal in dynasty startup drafts at this point, considering he is going right in front of wide receivers Marquise Goodwin and Randall Cobb. In rookie drafts, Penny is going behind fellow rookie running backs Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Nick Chubb. Penny has arguably the clearest path to a workhorse role (except for Saquon Barkley), and although his team is not the best for running backs, Penny could change that impression with stellar play in his early NFL years. Therefore, Penny is a fantastic selection in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts.

Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos

The only running back taken in the third round, Royce Freeman enters one of the most favorable fantasy situations for rookie tailbacks. Coming into a backfield with bust Devontae Booker and De'Angelo Henderson, Freeman has the chance to immediately become a workhorse back, just like he was in college. Freeman is a machine who possesses a three-down skill set, making him a very valuable running back to target in dynasty drafts. He has the potential to be one of the top rookie running backs this year, given his situation and skillset.

In dynasty drafts, Freeman is currently going 139th overall, right around Steelers running back James Conner and wide receiver Nelson Agholor. Although these are both fine picks, Freeman is still being undervalued by the dynasty community (as per the latest rankings). This year's running back class has the potential to be special, and Freeman has the potential to headline the group as one of the most productive backs in the league. In rookie drafts, Freeman is going at the end of the 1st round, behind wide receivers with less potential for rookie relevancy (Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, and Courtland Sutton). Although any one of these could blow up, the path to fantasy relevancy is much clearer for Freeman, making him a value pick if you are in the back end of the first round.

Kalen Ballage, Miami Dolphins

Most noted for a 2016 game where he scored eight touchdowns, Kalen Ballage is an intriguing college prospect who has the physical tools to succeed at the next level. Ballage was a 4th round pick in the draft and was selected by the Miami Dolphins. Although he is not being discussed as much as earlier running back picks, Ballage still has considerable potential to create fantasy points early on in his career. Coming into a backfield that has ancient Frank Gore and the electric Kenyan Drake, it is expected that Ballage will be the third running back on the depth chart to enter the season. However, Frank Gore cannot keep running forever and Drake does not seem to have completely earned the trust of the Dolphins brass thus far in his career. Although there is a world where Ballage has minimal value in his rookie year, he could also be a hidden asset that explodes onto the fantasy season as the lead back on the team. Ballage is not even in the top 200 picks in rookie drafts. He should be going higher than that but represents a terrific value as a late round flier. In rookie drafts, Ballage is going 19th overall, making him an intriguing option if you miss out on one of the top running backs early in your draft.

 

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Trout27 mins ago

Cracks MLB-High 10th Homer
Corey Seager2 hours ago

Removed From Game After Being Hit By Pitch
Naz Reid2 hours ago

Named Sixth Man Of The Year
Mitchell Robinson2 hours ago

Questionable For Game 3
Joel Embiid2 hours ago

Questionable For Game 3
DJ LeMahieu2 hours ago

To Be Shut Down For A Week
Zack Gelof2 hours ago

Likely Heading To Injured List
Alec Marsh2 hours ago

Leaves Game After Being Hit By Comebacker
Bam Adebayo2 hours ago

Looks Good In Win Over Boston
Ozzie Albies2 hours ago

Runs The Bases Wednesday
Kristaps Porzingis2 hours ago

Struggles Offensively In Game 2
Jayson Tatum3 hours ago

Has A Decent Showing On Wednesday
J.P. Crawford3 hours ago

Dealing With Oblique Soreness
Jaylen Brown3 hours ago

Leads The Way In Game 2
A.J. Puk3 hours ago

Rejoining Bullpen When Healthy
Zack Gelof3 hours ago

Nursing Abdominal Soreness
Tyler Herro3 hours ago

Gets It Done On Wednesday Night
Thairo Estrada3 hours ago

Experiencing Hamstring Tightness
Manny Machado3 hours ago

Expected To Return Friday
Sean Murphy3 hours ago

Hasn't Resumed Swinging
Cristian Javier3 hours ago

Plays Catch Wednesday
Christian Yelich4 hours ago

Still Not Swinging
Dallas Cowboys4 hours ago

Cowboys Pick Up Micah Parsons' Fifth-Year Option
Ezekiel Elliott5 hours ago

Cowboys Meeting With Ezekiel Elliott
Cincinnati Bengals5 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Requests A Trade From Bengals
Carlos Correa5 hours ago

Could Return Soon
Kevin Kiermaier5 hours ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Framber Valdez5 hours ago

Expected To Start This Weekend
Nic Claxton6 hours ago

Nicolas Claxton The "No. 1 Priority" For Nets In Offseason
Cal Raleigh6 hours ago

To Miss Wednesday's Game
Grayson Allen6 hours ago

Not Ruled Out For Game 3
Nikola Jovic6 hours ago

Available For Game 2
Ryan Lomberg7 hours ago

Could Be Back For Game 3
Cam Talbot7 hours ago

Starts Game 2 For Kings
Logan Thompson7 hours ago

Heads Out For Another Win Wednesday
Jake Oettinger7 hours ago

Tries To Bounce Back Wednesday
Nolan Jones7 hours ago

Not Playing Wednesday
Jani Hakanpaa7 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Tyler Myers7 hours ago

Battling The Flu
Michael Toglia7 hours ago

Rockies Recall Hunter Goodman, Option Michael Toglia
Lane Thomas8 hours ago

Dealing With Grade 2 Knee Sprain
Michael Penix Jr.8 hours ago

Could Be Among Top-Four Quarterbacks Selected
Jared Goff8 hours ago

No New Deal “Imminent” For Jared Goff
J.J. McCarthy10 hours ago

Broncos Interested In J.J. McCarthy
Detroit Lions10 hours ago

Penei Sewell Becomes Highest-Paid Offensive Lineman
Justin Fields10 hours ago

Steelers Not Expected To Pick Up Justin Fields' Fifth-Year Option
Rashod Bateman10 hours ago

Ravens Sign Rashod Bateman To Contract Extension
Ja'Marr Chase11 hours ago

Bengals Exercise Ja'Marr Chase's Fifth-Year Option
Amon-Ra St. Brown11 hours ago

Lions Agree To Four-Year Extension With Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nicolas Hague11 hours ago

Out For Vegas On Wednesday
James van Riemsdyk11 hours ago

To Make Series Debut Wednesday
Sam Bennett11 hours ago

To Miss Significant Time
William Nylander11 hours ago

Looking Unlikely For Game 3
Brett Pesce11 hours ago

Likely Out For Remainder Of First Round
Thatcher Demko11 hours ago

Listed As Week-To-Week
Ilya Sorokin11 hours ago

To Start Game 3
Cale Makar14 hours ago

Registers Two Assists In Game 2
Tom Wilson14 hours ago

Notches Two Points In Tuesday's Loss
Alexis Lafrenière14 hours ago

Alexis Lafreniere Collects Two Assists In Game 2 Victory
Filip Forsberg15 hours ago

Leads The Charge As Nashville Ties Series
Victor Hedman15 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Game 2
Carter Verhaeghe15 hours ago

Hits Overtime Winner In Game 2
Sam Bennett15 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury In Game 2
James Harden15 hours ago

Settles For 22 Points In Game 2
Luka Doncic15 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 32 Points In Game 2
Damian Lillard15 hours ago

Scores 34 Points In Losing Effort
Tyrese Haliburton16 hours ago

Collects A Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Pascal Siakam16 hours ago

In Fantastic Form Once Again Versus Milwaukee
Devin Booker16 hours ago

Leads Suns With 20 Points In Game 2
Anthony Edwards16 hours ago

Struggles In Game 2
Daniel Gafford1 day ago

Returns To Game 2
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Has A Rough Night On Tuesday
Jaden McDaniels1 day ago

Erupts In Game 2
Andrew Peeke1 day ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

Trade Remains "Very Much In Play"
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Patrick Surtain II
New England Patriots1 day ago

Patriots Haven't Received "Serious" Offers For No. 3 Pick
Kadarius Toney1 day ago

Still In Chiefs' Plans
Jake Browning1 day ago

Bengals Re-Sign Jake Browning
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

49ers Have Received Calls Regarding Brandon Aiyuk
Dak Prescott2 days ago

Not Trying To Be Highest-Paid Player
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Broncos Acquiring Zach Wilson From Jets
Matt Ryan2 days ago

Officially Retires From NFL
Cincinnati Bengals2 days ago

Sam Hubbard Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Survives At Talladega For First Win Of 2024
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Finishes Second At Talladega After Last-Lap Wreck
Anthony Alfredo3 days ago

Gets Best Finish For Beard Motorsports Since 2022
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

One Of The Strongest At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Finishes 36th At Talladega Superspeedway
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Fails To Deliver Value In DFS At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Fourth At Talladega
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Surprisingly The Most Consistent Driver At Talladega
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Acquits Himself Nicely In Drafting Debut
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Ends Talladega Wrecked From The Lead
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Quietly Captures Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Daniel Hemric3 days ago

Surges To Ninth-Place Result At Talladega
Harrison Burton3 days ago

Squeezes Into Top 10 At Talladega
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 14th For the GEICO 500
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Avoid Rostering Tyler Reddick At Talladega?
John Hunter Nemechek4 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster John Hunter Nemechek At Talladega?
Joey Logano4 days ago

Expect Joey Logano To Compete For The Win At Talladega
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Recommended For Talladega?
Justin Haley4 days ago

Is A Top DFS Value At Talladega
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win Talladega
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is Best Suited As A Tournament Play At Talladega
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF