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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 11 of 2024. His QB lineups advice for Week 11 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
What has been an unpredictable season continues. Once again, in Week 10, Bo Nix, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and yes, Will Levis all finished with 20 or more fantasy points and are among the leaders at the quarterback position.
This week, fantasy managers will be without Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Bryce Young as the Cardinals, Giants, Buccaneers, and Panthers sit this week out, thanks to their respective byes.
It's time to break down the Week 11 RotoBaller starts and sits for the quarterback position.
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Week 11 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Did you know that Justin Herbert has more completions than any other quarterback through the first five seasons in NFL history? More impressively, he has reached that milestone this season, chucking the ball to guys named Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Jalen Reagor, Will Dissly, and Ladd McConkey.
In the four contests before the Chargers' bye, Herbert dropped back at most 27 times in any of those contests. Since the Week 5 bye, Herbert dropped back less than 27 times just once, last week when he completed 14 of 18 passes (three incompletions hit the hands of his receivers) for 164 yards and a touchdown. The talk before the season was the Chargers' commitment to the run, but Herbert has thrown for 275 yards or more in three of his last four games. Since Week 7, Herbert has been the QB6 in fantasy.
Look for the good times to continue, as long as his receivers can catch the ball against the Bengals. Not only is Herbert closing in on the record for passing yards through the first five seasons as well (1,506 yards away from Peyton Manning's record), but he looks to get a good portion of those yards this week against a Cincinnati team that has yielded 2,300 passing yards to date, the ninth-most.
Cincinnati has also surrendered the fifth-most (20.36) fantasy points per game this season, including 40 to Lamar Jackson last week, and we know Justin Herbert is more than capable of breaking a few ankles himself.
Justin Herbert out here making guys touch turf 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/klxlq4YHJ0
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Russell Wilson - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Speaking of teams that allowed 40 fantasy points to the quarterback position last week, the Baltimore Ravens were guilty of doing so as Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and four scores last Thursday. I'm not saying Russell Wilson will produce at that kind of clip, but he should have a degree of fantasy success here in Week 11.
During the season, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the 22.21 that the Ravens have generously donated. Baltimore is tied with Tampa Bay in passing touchdowns allowed with 21, and they are in a league of their own with the 3,144 passing yards allowed, which is 326 more passing yards than the next closest team.
Baltimore has been consistently poor in coverage, and it shows over the last four weeks as well. They have allowed a league-high 22.31 points over that period, thanks to eight touchdowns and 1,196 yards. The Ravens added Tre'Davious White at the trade deadline. However, before his arrival, he had allowed the third-most touchdown receptions in coverage.
Since Week 7, Wilson has averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game, the 11th most at the quarterback position over that time. Wilson has posted a six-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio in his three starts this season, adding another touchdown with his legs. Wilson has produced three touchdowns in two of his three starts, and with a favorable matchup again this week, Wilson is primed for another top-12 fantasy finish.
Tough day for the Russell Wilson haters and losers, of which there are many
pic.twitter.com/wvXffapt4O— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) November 10, 2024
C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
C.J. Stroud has not been good for fantasy since he lost Nico Collins in early October. In fact, before the Collins injury, Stroud was coming off back-to-back 330-yard performances and averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game (QB11). In the five games that Collins has been absent, Stroud has averaged just 12.9 fantasy points per game (QB21).
We had all hoped that Collins would return on Sunday Night Football, but that never happened. Stroud finished that contest going 19 of 33 for 232 yards and a pair of interceptions. It was only the second time since Collins' injury that Stroud threw for more than 230 yards in a game. With a risk of re-injury around 15%, the Texans felt the risk was too great to have Collins return.
This week, that risk of re-injury lowers, and the matchup against the Cowboys has been the third-most favorable matchup for opposing quarterbacks as the Cowboys have allowed 23.18 fantasy points per game to the position over the previous four weeks. With a great matchup and the return of one of the best receivers in the game, Stroud's fantasy trajectory may soon be on the rise once more.
Week 11 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
It isn't easy to gauge Jordan Love this season. It's been The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly when it comes to the Packers quarterback. The good, Love has tossed 15 touchdown passes in seven games this season, and for fantasy that has equated to 18.5 fantasy points per game.
The bad, only Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Kirk Cousins have a worse turnover-worthy play rate this season than Love's 3.7%. Love is tied with Darnold and Geno Smith, who have had 10 interceptions each this season despite missing two contests due to injury.
The ugly could come this week against the Bears. Chicago's defense has recorded more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes surrendered (six). On the season, the Bears have allowed a league-low 10.43 fantasy points to quarterbacks. We know Chicago is good against the pass, but they struggle against the run, ranking 24th in EPA/rush. This has the makings of a Josh Jacobs game.
Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
Another difficult matchup for opposing quarterbacks is Kirk Cousins and the Falcons this week. The Denver Broncos have allowed just 15.71 fantasy points to the position over the last four weeks, raising their season average to 13.82.
Last week, Denver limited Patrick Mahomes to one touchdown and 266 passing yards, a week after the future Hall of Famer threw for 291 yards and three scores. On the season, Denver is allowing just 17.7 points per game, a number that ranks behind the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Minnesota Vikings. The 1.8 touchdowns per game allowed sits fifth.
It's hard to sit Cousins with four teams already on bye, but there are quarterbacks with more favorable matchups that fantasy managers could pivot to this week.
Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
You know, in Scooby Doo, when the gang takes off the mask of the ghoul, and to the surprise of many, the face is a familiar one. It's starting to feel that if a Bears fan were to take Caleb Williams' mask off, it might reveal a familiar face in Justin Fields.
Bears last 8 games with healthy Justin Fields:
• 5-3 record
• 24.5 points per gameBears first 9 games with Caleb Williams:
• 4-5 record
• 19.4 points per gameJustin Fields was NOT the problem.
— Sam Block (@theblockspot) November 10, 2024
Remember that Draft Day text that Williams sent punter Tory Taylor? The internet hasn't either. Williams said to Taylor in the text, "You're not going to punt too much here." Fun fact, Taylor's 2,153 punt yards tops Williams and his 2,021 passing yards. We thought Williams was in a situation like no other rookie on draft day. Solid line. An excellent running game with D'Andre Swift. Pass catchers in Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze. No rookie has ever been afforded that kind of weaponry.
Williams failed to reach double-digit fantasy production in each of the previous three contests. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels (16.9), Drake Maye (14), and Bryce Young (12.8) have done more with less. This week doesn't get any easier, facing divisional rival Green Bay, the fourth stingiest defensive unit (12.56) over the last four weeks.
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