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Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Thunder Dan Palyo identifies one player for each category on the Portland Trail Blazers.
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If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on several players from each team that we see as values for the upcoming season or that are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Portland Trail Blazers based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2022-2023 season.
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Fantasy Basketball Breakouts: Jerami Grant and Josh Hart
Sometimes I have to roll with two players in these categories instead of just one and I'm choosing two complementary pieces of this starting five as my breakout picks. Both Grant and Hart have been around the league for a while, so these aren't breakouts in the sense of young guys who are just bursting onto the scene. Instead, I'm talking break out as in "have really consistent roles on their new team and become excellent fantasy values."
Grant is on his fifth NBA team, but is still just 28-years-old and posted the best offensive stats of his career in Detroit. But he clearly wasn't cut out to be a #1 option on offense. His skill set really fits the "3 and D" category much better and I think he is going to thrive playing power forward in Portland. He's physical enough to guard opposing big men inside and athletic enough to cover wings on the perimeter.
His per-36 career averages in steals (.9) and blocks (1.5) are excellent and his offensive game is better suited for less volume, not more, as he was shooting 45% or better earlier in his career and then had his FG% dip to 42.5% in Detroit as he was taking a lot more shots.
Grant is going around pick 103 in drafts and I think he's a steal there if he can stay healthy. Playing alongside Damian Lillard should afford him plenty of open shots and Portland has been missing solid wing players to complement Dame now for several years. He could really be a huge offseason addition to boost Portland's defense and round out their lineup.
Josh Hart has a much different skill set than Grant, but I think he is also going to be a really complementary player to Damian Lillard and is likely Portland's best opening-day starter at SF in nearly a decade. At age 27, he is also in a similar spot as Grant in that he's bounced around a bit and has had to grind his way into becoming a starter in this league. He played off the bench in L.A. before eventually becoming a starter last year in New Orleans and posting some of the most well-rounded stats of his career.
Hart was dealt to Portland in the McCollum trade and went nuts statistically, posting 20-5-4 on 50% shooting with 2.4 threes and 1.2 steals in 13 games. Now, he was basically functioning as the top option on offense as Portland was rolling out a bunch of D-leaguers down the stretch, and eventually, he was even shut down too. But before coming over to Portland, he was still putting up solid numbers in New Orleans (13-8-4). The rebounding from an SG/SF is probably the most impressive aspect of Hart's game as well as the solid FG%.
When you look at Hart's numbers, they look more like those of a PF, than an SG/SF. He's a great glue guy who doesn't need plays run for him and does a lot of his damage by getting garbage buckets and taking what the defense is giving him. Like Grant, I see his game fitting in perfectly alongside Damian Lillard and he doesn't need to score a lot to provide really solid fantasy value.
You can grab Hart in the 90s (current ADP of 95) and feel good about it. Hart finished 78th in Basketball Monster's player value ratings last season and blocks are really the only area he doesn't help much in for 9-cat. I would definitely try to get one of these two in the later rounds of your draft as I think both are poised for solid seasons on this new-look Blazers team.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Anfernee Simons
Simons had a great run last year while Damian Lillard was out and after CJ McCollum was traded. In fact, he averaged 22-3-5.5 in 30 games that he played for Portland when Damian Lillard did not. But at the same time, he only averaged 14.6-2.7-3.2 playing shooting guard alongside CJ McCollum. I think Simons is a great young scorer, but I do think that the hype surrounding him might be a bit premature until we see how he fits alongside Lillard as his sidekick at shooting guard, something we don't have too big of a sample size of just yet.
Here are the two preseason lines for Simons so far starting at SG alongside Lillard.
13-0-1, 3 3PM, 4-13 shooting in 26 minutes
9-3-2, 1 3PM, 1 STL, 2-12 shooting in 25 minutes
Maybe he's rusty, or maybe he's just a gunner who was used to coming off the bench or playing in meaningless games when Portland was tanking?
Even with all this extra playing time and usage from both Lillard and McCollum missing time (McCollum was traded, not hurt), Simons still only finished the year at 131 in the BB Monster player ratings for 9-cat value. Most of his value comes from his ability to score the basketball, but if he's not playing point guard, then his assists dry up and he doesn't give you much in steals for a guard. Hart and Grant are going to gobble up boards and eat up some shots, too, leaving Simons with less volume. I think you're likely to see him average 16-18 points per game, but most of his value will be in points, threes, and FT%.
He's not a guy I would avoid totally and his ADP of 93 isn't all that inflated, but he's simply not a guy I get all that excited about rostering. I suppose there is some value attached to his role if Dame were to get hurt and he could be an interesting handcuff if you drafted Dame early, but Simons just feels like the one starter who is going to have the least value for fantasy purposes on this Portland team.
Fantasy Basketball Locks: Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic
I am pretty excited for Portland this year and I'd be happy to draft either one of these guys on my fantasy teams. They play really well together and form one of the more underrated pick-and-roll duos in the league. We are going to get our first real look at Damian Lillard without his sidekick CJ McCollum in what feels like forever and I think he could go absolutely nuclear this season if he stays healthy. I have him just outside my top-10, but I wouldn't blame anyone for grabbing him inside the top-10 in your drafts.
Dame finished 10th in 9-cat value back in 2021 and there simply isn't anyone other than Steph Curry who is a bigger value in points, threes, assists, and FT%. Could Dame surpass Steph this year with even more volume now that CJ is gone? Yeah, he really could, but his FG% will always hold him back a bit from being that top-five type of player. Regardless, you know what you're getting with Lillard and he should be rock solid for another big season. He seems motivated too and has always been a guy who seems to carry a chip on his shoulder.
Now, let's talk about Nurk! I have always loved his game and I think the return of Damian Lillard should do wonders for him as well. He has dealt with injury issues of his own, but when he's healthy, he's one of the more well-rounded big men in the game. We still haven't seen him develop his three-point shot, and we may never see it, but Nurkic is still a boon to your scoring, rebounding, FG%, and blocks while being an above-average passer too.
I'm not saying we will ever get 36 minutes per game out of him, but his career-per-36 averages are impressive. He's at 18.4-12.9-3.3 with 1.4 STL and 1.8 BLK on 50% from the floor - woah! His FT% is a drag at only 69% but he only takes around five attempts per game too. If you punt FT%, he jumps up all the way up into the top-60 with last year's numbers too.
Nurk's ADP of 82 is too low! I think we see him have his best pro season yet, assuming he's healthy and Dame stays healthy, and...well assuming everything goes right. I'd much rather have Nurkic than anyone being drafted 10-15 spots ahead of him. He's a lock for solid production this year, so circle his name and grab him in the seventh round already!
Conclusion
Portland should be a really fun team to watch and I think they are a dark horse in the Western Conference if things break their way. They should also be a great team to target for fantasy purposes as I could easily see their starters all play pretty heavy minutes. I'm the most bullish on Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic, but both Jerami Grant and Josh Hart are ADP values. Anfernee Simons is what he is and that's "just okay" in my book. Justise Winslow wasn't mentioned in the article yet but also has some deep league or streamer appeal if he carves out a 25-minute sixth-man "jack of all trades" glue guy role.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!
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