RADIO
Welcome to the RotoBaller waiver wire column which falls in-line with most fantasy “who should I pick up?” articles with a skew towards points leagues. Yes, there is positive correlation to standard 5x5 scoring but in our format, strikeouts, walks and non-homer extra-base hits are uniquely critical. In points leagues, specific categories matter less, and the accumulation of total stats is the ultimate objective.
We march into Week 6 of the 2019 baseball season and vigilance of the waiver wire becomes increasingly important as we enter May. The impact of one awful or great game is starting to become less meaningful as players gradually approach steady state.
Our points league waiver wire column will default to standard scoring and try to unearth three players under 50% ownership and three players under 25% ownership. For each group, we’ll identify an infielder, outfielder and pitcher. Let’s get hunting!
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Points League Pickups to Consider
Howie Kendrick (2B/3B/OF, WSH)
9% Owned
Old reliable Howie Kendrick is back in our lives as a fantasy-relevant geezer. The 35-year-old is scorching to a .356/.423/.610 slash with four long balls and 25 runs-plus-RBI in only 71 plate appearances. With the recent ailments of Anthony Rendon (elbow), Kendrick is getting regular starts at the hot corner.
A glance at Kendrick’s peripherals indicates the numbers are durable. An elevated .354 BABIP is in line with his past two seasons and the Statcast expected numbers are better than his actual production. While some mean reversion is expected, Kendrick’s exit velocity (93.4 MPH) and launch angle (11.3 degrees) are up substantially to start the season. Lump in an excellent 0.80 BB/K and you get a versatile veteran that pleasantly reeks of big extra-base upside.
Chris Davis (1B, BAL)
2% Owned
This is not a joke. After starting the season as a poster child for futility, Chris Davis has gone 13-for-40 for a respectable .325 average. He’s added six extra-base hits including three homers. The perennial slugger has an xSLG (.442) that is 100 points higher than his current clip, providing a regression-based power source free off the waiver wire.
The abominable strikeout rate can’t go ignored in points leagues, but prior to his mid-2018 swoon, Davis had insulated the impact with a walk rate above 10%. The fact that he doesn’t play every day could be a positive, he’s a usable spot-starter that isn’t a risk to kill your fantasy return on a daily basis. If we look at Davis as a Joey Gallo-lite, things appear palatable. Trading whiffs for a shot at 25 homers and doubles apiece on a part-time basis is a reasonable compromise.
Franmil Reyes (OF, SD)
41% Owned
Franmil Reyes enters Week 6 with eight homers in 100 plate appearances. Excluding a brutal opening week where he crushed with only one hit to show in 16 at-bats, Reyes is hitting a solid .280. For a prodigious power hitter with underrated plate discipline, it makes me giddy as a San Diego-native to tout a beloved Padre for rational reasons.
Reyes is seventh in barrels per plate appearance (13%), 17th in exit velocity (93.5 MPH) and carries an elite xSLG of .653. Despite the swing-and-miss stereotype, Reyes has lowered his strikeout rate from 28% to 22%. With a .222 BABIP and the prevailing batted-ball profile, the extra-base hits will come. Playing time was a risk for Reyes entering the season, but he’s been holding the majority share of starts in right field. Beware of the Franimal.
Christin Stewart (OF, DET)
3% Owned
Outside of Motor City, Christin Stewart is likely an anonymous entity. Combined with a lengthy IL stint from a quad strain, Stewart’s ownership is essentially zero. In deeper leagues, that deserves to change. Before his injury, Stewart racked up five doubles, a triple and three homers in just 64 plate appearances.
Entering the season as the Tiger’s No. 8 prospect, Stewart mashed 81 homers through three minor league stops between 2016-2018. While the .222 average looks ugly, his expected stats suggest he should be closer to the .260 rate he posted in the minors. Combine that with the power profile and passable BB/K and you have a bonafide under-the-radar slugger. Stewart is expected back in the lineup in about a week, he feels like a rest-of-season sleeper.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP, CHW)
22% Owned
Reynaldo Lopez has been a polarizing fantasy topic and I’ve been on both the pro and con side. A 6.03 ERA and 1.69 WHIP claims there is no argument, but a tasty 27.1% strikeout rate suggests otherwise. With a matchup against Boston upcoming as of this writing, let’s take on the doubters in real time!
Lopez endured a rough three-start stretch to open the season but has rebounded admirably to surpass six innings in each of his last three outings with a 2.50 ERA. He held a pushover Tigers squad scoreless on April 28 with a mouthwatering 14 strikeouts. Lopez’ downtick in velocity is worrisome, but the theory is that normalizes with warmer temperatures. If he ratchets the walks down from 4.9 BB/9 and HR/FB from 14%, he should serve as a quality innings-eater with a strikeout kicker in any points league.
Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN)
18% Owned
Anthony Desclafani has been a turnstile on the waiver wire over his career when healthy but is making a case for full-time ownership. The 29-year-old has mixed four fantastic outings (0.79 ERA) with two mega-clunkers (10.80 ERA) but has lifted his strikeouts from a career 21% to a robust 28%.
In 2019, Desclafani has added a cutter to an already-diverse pitch portfolio to spectacular results. Although he’s only throwing it 7% of the time, he’s registering a 4.42 wFC/C. As icing on the cake, it’s led to positive pitch values across his entire arsenal. Desclafani is touching over 94 MPH on his heater and if the repertoire remains effective, he could enjoy a breakout season. With expected stats that support his current performance, he’s certainly worth a speculative pickup.
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