Outfield: Overvalued/Undervalued For Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues

March 2, 2024

Joey Pollizze lists five OF fantasy baseball draft sleepers for points leagues (2024). Some of these outfielders are draft day values at their current fantasy ADP.

The outfield position has plenty of stars going early in fantasy baseball drafts this year, including consensus No. 1 overall pick Ronald Acuna Jr. Mookie Betts, Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker, Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge are also some other outfielders going within the first 15 picks of drafts in 2024.

That list doesn't even contain other outfielders like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yordan Alvarez. Needless to say, the outfielder position has some superstars going at the top of drafts. All nine of those outfielders are priced appropriately in fantasy drafts this season. However, some outfielders are valued too high and too low in fantasy in 2024.

So, let's dive in and see which players are overvalued and undervalued this year.

Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II has already shown his potential in just two years in the majors. The former National League Rookie of the Year has been a reliable bat in Atlanta's lineup, and that should continue in 2024. Despite a struggling start during the 2023 season, Harris winded up finishing with nearly identical numbers from his rookie campaign.

In 2022, he finished with a .297 average, 19 home runs, 64 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 27 doubles, 21 walks, and 107 strikeouts. Last year, Harris finished with a .293 average, 18 HRs, 57 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 33 doubles, 25 walks, and 101 strikeouts. The consistent numbers are great, but those stats make him a hard pass at his current ADP. He's currently going in the fourth or fifth round this season.

2/26 #Braves vs. BAL (1:05 pm ET)

Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Ozzie Albies 2B
Austin Riley 3B
Matt Olson 1B
Marcell Ozuna DH
Michael Harris II CF
Travis d'Arnaud C
Jarred Kelenic LF
Orlando Arcia SS

Max Fried SP pic.twitter.com/7O3sy9ku4O

— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) February 26, 2024

Harris does a little bit of everything to contribute fantasy points. However, his low home run and RBI numbers -- which are key in points leagues -- don't justify taking a fourth- or fifth-round pick on him. He also only has a career 4.7% walk rate and hit toward the bottom of the Braves lineup last year, which limits his RBI numbers.

Verdict: Overvalued 

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. has failed to stay healthy over the past two years, which has significantly hurt his fantasy value. In 2022, Chisholm played in just 60 games. Then, last year, he played in 97 games after suffering a turf toe injury.

So, seeing Chisholm going as high as he is in fantasy baseball drafts this season makes very little sense. The 26-year-old's current ADP is in the seventh or eighth round in most leagues. Sometimes he's going even earlier. That seems too high for a player who hasn't necessarily stayed healthy or put up big numbers when healthy. 

In 97 games last season, Chisholm finished with a .250 average, 19 HRs, 51 RBI, 22 stolen bases, and 12 doubles. It is nice to see the young outfielder contribute in a lot of ways, but he has never totaled more than 20 HRs, 20 doubles, or 55 RBI in a year. His sweet spot rate (25.3%), expected batting average (.224), strikeout rate (30.8%), and walk rate (6.8%) also ranked in the lower half of the league last year, making him a risky option at this point in the draft.

If he falls, I wouldn't mind taking a chance on him due to his upside. His ADP on ESPN is outside the top 150, which seems like more of a value. However, he is going inside the top 80 on most other platforms.

Verdict: Overvalued (except on ESPN)

Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies

In points leagues, HRs, RBI, and doubles are the most important because they provide the most points. Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos is a player who continues to provide elite numbers in those categories. That makes him a bargain at his current ADP of 112.6.

Despite entering his age-32 season in 2024, the right fielder has shown no signs of slowing down. After struggling in his first year with the Phillies in 2022, he bounced back in a big way in 2023. Castellanos finished with a .272 average, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, and 37 doubles.

30+ HR season for Nick Castellanos in 2024? 👀 pic.twitter.com/LYond5hGCu

— Justin Lever ❤️⚾️ (@JustinLever3) February 23, 2024

There's a lot to like about Castellanos in points leagues. For starters, he averages 25 HRs and 90 RBI per season over his 11 years. He also hits in the middle of a Phillies lineup that features Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, which should lead to more RBI chances -- hence his career-high 106 RBI in 2023. He's a great pick in the double-digit rounds and appears to be valued too low in drafts.

Verdict: Undervalued 

Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez might get overshadowed all year because he plays on a Los Angeles Dodgers team with Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani. However, for that reason alone, Hernandez should be someone to target in fantasy drafts. 

It remains to be seen where Hernandez will bat in the Dodgers lineup in 2024, but somewhere in the top five is possible. If that happens, the 31-year-old will be in a prime position to drive in over 95 runs this upcoming season with Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani all hitting in front of him.

The first runs of #SpringTraining come courtesy of Teoscar Hernández. 💪 pic.twitter.com/lghDHlBez6

— MLB (@MLB) February 22, 2024

The outfielder has already driven in 90-plus in two of the past three years, including 116 in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays. So, 95 RBI in the heart of the Dodgers lineup seems attainable. Hernandez has also hit at least 25 HRs in three straight seasons, making him a bargain at his current ADP. He is currently going outside the top 120 in most drafts this season.

Verdict: Undervalued 

Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida is coming off a solid rookie season where he finished sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. He ended with a .289 batting average, 15 HRs, 72 RBI, and 33 doubles across 140 games in 2023. However, Yoshida is going outside the top 150 even after a strong first year.

There's going to be a lot of struggles for any rookie playing in the majors, but Yoshida held his own for most of the year. He had just a 14% strikeout rate and an 18.3% whiff rate. Both of those landed him in the top 15% in baseball. On top of that, his average, RBI, hits (155), and doubles ranked top-five among all qualified rookies in 2023.

Maybe people don't believe Yoshida will take his game one step further this upcoming year. Nevertheless, it's certainly possible after the 30-year-old put together a strong rookie campaign.

Verdict: Undervalued

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