NFL Playoffs Wild Card Matchup Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins

Mo analyzes the matchup of the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Miami Dolphins on NFL Wild Card Weekend (2024). Who's the favorite, and which team has the edge on both sides of the ball?

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium for a Super Wild Card Weekend clash between the AFC’s third and sixth seeds. The game kick-offs at 8:15 pm EST, and is being shown on Peacock.

The Dolphins come into this after a Week 18 loss against the Buffalo Bills that lost them their shot at the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs come into this one on a two-game win streak, although they did rest most of their key starters in their Week 18 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

What can we expect from QB Tua Tagovailoa in his first playoff appearance? Are the Chiefs poised to make a run at another Super Bowl despite their offensive struggles this season? How much of a factor will the weather play in this one?

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Vegas Lines

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs Miami Dolphins

O/U 44

Weather

Reports indicate that the kickoff temperature for Saturday night in Kansas City is roughly five to -12 degrees, with a wind chill reaching up to -30 degrees. If the weather holds, it will be one of the coldest games in NFL history.

Likely, the bone-chilling weather may negatively impact the Dolphins’ offense more than it would the Chiefs. The Dolphins enter this game with the league’s most potent passing offense, having averaged 265.5 pass yards per game in the regular season. Their largest area of success this season may be taken out from under them.

That being said, the Dolphins have also found success on the ground at a high rate this season. Their 5.1 yards per carry average makes for the most amongst all 32 teams, and their 135.8 rushing yards per game average account for the sixth-most in the NFL. However, how much of their success on the ground has come from the threat of their passing offense, which may not be a factor in this matchup?

As for the Chiefs, they get the slight benefit of being somewhat familiar with the cold weather in their home city. QB Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 with a 94.1 passer rating in games with a temperature below below 40 in his career.

Miami Offense Vs. Kanas City Defense

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins offense is one of the highest-octane in the league. They enter this matchup having averaged the most yards per game, the second most points per game, the most passing yards, and the sixth most rushing yards. They have speed all over the field in the likes of WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as well as with their RBs De'Vone Achane and Raheem Mostert.

Miami’s offensive line held a pass-block win rate of 49% in the regular season, ranking them 31st in the league. Their run-blocking has been much better, holding a 72% win rate, the eighth-highest mark in the league.

The Chiefs' defense gears up for this one with a top-five defense in DVOA. They finished the regular season second in both points and yards allowed per game, as well as the third-best passing defense in the league. The one area of distress for them has been their run defense, a unit that allowed the 18th most rush yards per game in the regular season.

Their defensive line is bottom twelve in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. Their pass rush win rate of 40% ranks them 20th in the league, and their 27% run-stop win rate is the lowest of all 32 teams.

Miami does gain an edge here with their rushing attack, and based on the weather reports, will play a huge role in Saturday night’s matchup.

Kansas City Offense vs. Miami Defense

For the first time with Mahomes as their starter, it’s the Chiefs offense that has taken the backseat to their defense. The Chiefs ranked 15th in points per game, 19th in rushing yards per game, and sixth in passing yards per game. Some uncertainties at the wide receiver position and some statistical regression from star TE Travis Kelce have led the Chiefs to trend in the wrong direction offensively this season.

Their offensive line posted a 77% pass block win rate this season, the highest in the league. Their run block win rate sat at 70%, ranking them 20th in the league.

Miami’s defense isn’t quite as strong as Kansas City’s, but a formidable group nonetheless. They enter the matchup as the sixth-best defense in DVOA. They allowed the 22nd most points per game as well as the 18th most pass yards per game. Their run defense has been more stout, allowing the seventh least rushing yards.

Their defensive line finished in the top half of the league in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate.

Kansas City will need to rely heavily on starting RB Isiah Pacheco, who is coming off a 900+ rushing yard regular season on 4.6 yards per carry.

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