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Week 5 of the NFL season has arrived and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. Week 5 also means that the first batch of teams get their week off. The Browns, Chargers, Buccaneers, and Seahawks will take their bye week.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 5 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 14 - Detroit vs. Carolina
- 13 - Miami vs. New York Giants
- 12 - Kansas City at Minnesota
There is a bare slate in the locks group this week. The Lions are 3-1 with two impressive road wins. Now, they draw a winless Carolina team at home, where Jared Goff typically performs better. Miami was slowed (keyword: slowed, they still had 20 points and 393 total yards) by Buffalo in Week 4, but the lowly Giants' defense won't be able to do the same. The Chiefs didn't look their best on Sunday Night Football but get to face a much easier defense in Minnesota. Take Patrick Mahomes over Kirk Cousins in the battle of the Netflix quarterbacks.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 5 Pick 'Em Pools
11 - Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (in London)
The Jaguars play their second straight game overseas but this time they're the "road" team. Jacksonville does have the advantage of staying in London this week. However, this offense, which was pegged by pundits to become among the elite class, hasn't escalated into that echelon.
Week 1 for the Buffalo Bills stands out like a sore thumb. It's widely remembered that Josh Allen turned the ball over four times and handed the game to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. If you haven't watched Buffalo play since then, you're missing one of the true AFC contenders flourish.
The Bills, fresh off of a game where they sacked Sam Howell nine times, made life difficult for Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins scored 20 points, which brought their season average down to 37.5. If Trevor Lawrence struggles to score against the Texans, Chiefs, and Falcons, then his day against the Bills won't be pretty.
10 - Washington vs. Chicago
Is it too early for the NFL to invoke their right to flex Thursday Night Football games?
The Chicago Bears had several opportunities to clinch their first win of the season (including carrying a 14-point lead into the 4th quarter). But in great Bears fashion (at least in this era) a critical coaching error and miscommunication led to their demise.
The Commanders took the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles to overtime in the City of Brotherly Love and looked much improved after their shellacking by Buffalo in Week 3. Sam Howell should have no problem moving the Washington offense against a team lacking defensive stars.
9 - Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Baltimore Ravens dominated the Browns in Cleveland in Week 4 (although Deshaun Watson did not play). The Pittsburgh Steelers, on the other hand, looked to be taking a step back in their loss to the Houston Texans. Their routinely robust defense did not record a sack (against two backup offensive tackles), did not force a turnover, and allowed 30 points.
The only reason this game isn't higher on the confidence scale is because of the history between these two teams. This matchup is one of the ugliest rivalries in the game, which adds a layer of uncertainty for how the game will play out.
8 - Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams are the surprise good team of the season (notice I said good team, we'll get to the surprise bad team later). Their offensive playmakers are two fifth-round selections, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua, playing in their second and first seasons, respectively. As fellow RotoBaller writer Kyle Lindemann notes, there aren't any household names outside of Aaron Donald on the defense.
The Eagles are undefeated but flirting with fire. Three of their four wins have come in one-score games, including an overtime victory over the Commanders on Sunday. The offense isn't humming as it was in 2022 and their secondary is suspect. Still, the Eagles have the more talented roster and don't have a blemish on the season, yet. This could be a much closer game than the records indicate.
7 - Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans at home and the Tennessee Titans on the road are two different teams. In Week 4, their defense hit Joe Burrow nine times and held the Bengals' offense to 211 yards en route to a 27-3 victory. Just a week prior, Derrick Henry looked over the hill and the defense couldn't handle the Browns' offense. But the face of the split-personality act is quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
| Ryan Tannehill Games | Passing | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Result |
| Week 1 (Away) | 16-34 | 198 | 0 | 3 | L, 15-16 |
| Week 2 (Home) | 20-24 | 246 | 1 | 0 | W, 27-24 |
| Week 3 (Away) | 13-25 | 104 | 0 | 0 | L, 3-27 |
| Week 4 (Home) | 18-25 | 240 | 1 | 1 | W, 27-3 |
Next up on the Titans' schedule is a road game against Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson nearly led the Colts to a 24-0 comeback win over the Rams on Sunday (they forced overtime but allowed a touchdown on the opening drive of the period). The home team is the favorite in this divisional matchup.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 5
6 - Houston at Atlanta
We may be witnessing the birth of the next star quarterback in the NFL. C.J. Stroud threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh in Week 4. In fact, the rookie has thrown for over 300 yards in two of the four games he's played. Houston is running a similar offensive system to the ones seen in Miami and San Francisco.
Atlanta is the home favorite (-1) in this contest but these are two teams on opposite trajectories. Desmond Ridder can't throw the football with any sort of consistency, nor can Arthur Smith design plays to get the football into the hands of his top receiving options, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. In the last two games, they've been unable to score points once faced with a deficit.
5 - San Francisco vs. Dallas
The elite class of the NFC meets in the Bay Area on Sunday Night Football. San Francisco and Dallas met in the Divisional Round of last year's playoffs, a game in which the Cowboys lost by a touchdown.
San Francisco looks like the most complete team in the league. Brock Purdy threw one incomplete pass on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey is a walking touchdown. They scored 35 points with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle largely uninvolved.
Both of these teams have great defenses but San Francisco knows how to score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. At this point in the season, that's been the Achilles heel for Dallas. The Cowboys have gone 7-for-19 in red zone opportunities. That's just 36.8 percent.
4 - Green Bay at Las Vegas
A revenge game for Davante Adams!
The former Packers All-Pro sees old teammates and coaches in his new home in Las Vegas on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately for Adams, this game may not go in his direction.
Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) will likely return from a one-game absence but the offense isn't putting up points with or without him. 15.5 points per game is exactly what the Saints, Steelers, and Jets are averaging as well. Those offenses, at least in popular opinion, have a lot less going for them on that side of the ball than the Raiders. Prior to Week 4, Josh McDaniels had the best odds of being the first coach fired.
| Coach | Odds Of Being Fired First (Prior to Week 4) |
| Josh McDaniels | +150 |
| Matt Eberflus | +175 |
| Ron Rivera | +250 |
| Kevin O’Connell | +900 |
| Brandon Staley | +1,000 |
The Packers had zero answers for the Detroit Lions defensive line in Week 4, but the Raiders don't have that kind of talent up front. The Packers also get another week of rest for their best offensive weapons, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. Jordan Love won't have the same difficulty scoring early as he did on Thursday Night Football.
3 - New Orleans at New England
The battle between New Orleans and New England owns the second-lowest line of the week at just 39.5 points. That line implies that at least one team will score a touchdown more than their weekly average. The Patriots are second to last in the league at 13.8 points per game. The Saints aren't even two points per game higher (15.5). That would make sense if one of these offenses was playing against a defense like Denver or Chicago. Both New Orleans and New England have legitimately good defenses, though.
Derek Carr didn't look comfortable throwing downfield with his shoulder injury. Star wide receiver Chris Olave grabbed just one catch in Week 4 and running back Alvin Kamara set a record for the least amount of yards on the 13 catches he received.
The Saints have the offensive weapons to put up points if they can figure out the quarterback problem (or if Carr looks significantly healthier another week removed from his ailment). The Patriots also just lost two major starters on their defense, pass rusher Matthew Judon (bicep tear) and cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder).
2 - New York Jets vs. Denver
The Denver Broncos made Justin Fields look great (at least for 3.5 quarters). The Mile High defense is giving up the most points per game (37.5) and opposing offenses have tallied 1,846 yards in just four games. That's 230 yards more than the next-worst defense. Fields, who has looked like a backup all season, took advantage.
| Justin Fields Games | Passing | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Week 1 (vs. GB) | 24-37 | 216 | 1 |
| Week 2 (at TB) | 16-29 | 211 | 1 |
| Week 3 (at KC) | 11-22 | 99 | 1 |
| Week 4 (vs. DEN) | 28-35 | 335 | 4 |
Can they allow Zach Wilson to look like Aaron Rodgers? There was a stretch on Sunday Night Football when Wilson was placing footballs as good as or better than any other quarterback in the league. If he can do that against a good Kansas City defense, imagine what he'll do against Denver.
The Jets' defense made the game surprisingly difficult for Mahomes in the Meadowlands. Expect Russell Wilson to experience the same pains in Week 5.
1 - Cincinnati at Arizona
The Cincinnati Bengals are statistically the worst offense in the NFL. The team with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins can't score. That unit is averaging 12.3 points per game, which is dead last in the league.
How can pick 'em players trust the Cats in Week 5? They can't (hence why they're ranked at the bottom of the list). Arizona is competing with the top teams in the NFC (Dallas, San Francisco) despite lacking top-end talent. Still, the Cardinals are allowing over 25 points per game. The Bengals get one more game to get back on track before it's really time to panic.
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