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The 2023 NFL Mock Draft season is over. The amount of diversity in predicting where players would land was monumental. It was a game of mental chess that is now done.
After completing the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, we can pause and take stock of the damage or beauty that the first round gave us. There are still Rounds 2-4 to contemplate, but there is time.
This list is an instant reaction to Round 1. What players landed in the best spot for themselves and fantasy projections? Or what players landed in a spot that could hurt their fantasy football value?
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Round 1 Winners
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson goes to a team that led the league in rushing attempts per game (32.88) last season but was third in total rushing yards (2718) and fourth in yards per carry (4.9). Then Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota led the team in rushing attempts with 300. The second-most in rushing attempts was running back Tyler Allgeier with 210.
Last season at the University of Texas, Robinson had 257 rushing attempts. He finished the season with an impressive 1575 rushing yards. Robinson averaged 6.1 yards per carry with only two fumbles and profiles as the workhorse back in an offense that depends on the run game. Adding Robinson to your dynasty league is a no-brainer. He is also a solid redraft option.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
There could not have been a better landing spot for Richardson. New head coach Shane Steichen has worked with Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. What do these quarterbacks have in common? Nothing and that is the beauty of the pick for both the quarterback and the head coach. Steichen is known to mold the system to the quarterback and not the other way around.
Richardson is a project. He is raw. His short career in Florida consisted of 13 starts, 12 of which were last season. In the 2022 season, Richardson finished with a 53.8% completion percentage, passing for 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
But Richardson has the highest ceiling of all the quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft due to his freakish athletic abilities. At the 2023 NFL Combine, Richardson ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash. He had a vertical of 40.5" and a broad jump of 10'9". That is impressive for a 6-foot-4, 244-pound quarterback.
It is equally impressive that he finished the 2022 season with 629 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Out of the top four quarterbacks in the 2023 class, Richardson had the lowest percentage of pressures turned into sacks.
Head coach Steichen is the best choice to mold Richardson into a legitimate dual-threat quarterback. And with the acquisition of Gardner Minshew, the Colts don't have to put Richardson on the field immediately. The rookie is worth a high pick in dynasty fantasy leagues and a flyer in redraft.
Round 1 Losers
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Detroit's current roster of running backs includes D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, and Gibbs. There is a chance the Lions will trade Swift. But as it currently stands, Gibbs and Swift will be fighting for the 115 targets the Lions dispersed among their running backs. Swift was targeted 70 times. Justin Jackson saw 19 targets, and Jamaal Williams was on the receiving end of 16 targets.
Gibbs makes his money with his pass-catching ability. The Lions not only have a running back that fits that mold, but 10 teams passed the ball more to the running back position last season. Any of those teams would have been a better fit for Gibbs. For instance, what about the Los Angeles Chargers, who have a disgruntled Austin Ekeler? Or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who released Leonard Fournette? Both teams would have been better for Gibbs' fantasy value.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
The run of wide receivers being drafted started with the Seattle Seahawks' 20th pick and ended three picks later with the Minnesota Vikings. The issue with the Chargers' 21st pick of Quentin Johnston swirls around Mike Williams. The 'loser' tag is less of a "loser" and more of a quietly pessimistic decision.
Johnston is a vertical threat. He has the size at 6'3" and 208 pounds and is freakishly athletic. On his Pro Day, Johnston ran a 4.59 in the 40-yard dash. But his route tree is incomplete, and of the 32 touchdowns quarterback Matt Duggan tossed last season, only six were by Johnston. And it is disappointing that his eight drops outnumbered his touchdowns.
The WR's new quarterback Justin Herbert was the third-most accurate passer throwing the deep ball (68.2%), per statmuse.com. This pick could win if Johnston can elevate his contested catch rate and be more dependable in the red zone. But he also has to compete with Williams for the vertical targets. Currently, Williams (when healthy) is more dependable.
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