RADIO
Welcome to the Week 4 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Week 4 once again features an appealing combination of reasonably salaried players in attractive positional matchups and/or appealing DFS environments. Therefore, we have a solid array of candidates to consider at each position, including a couple of site-specific specials that could pay off nicely.
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Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jacoby Brissett, CLE at ATL | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $20
Brissett is a far cry from prime Deshaun Watson talent-wise, but as he's done on multiple occasions in his career when filling in for a big name, the veteran is more than holding his own during his interim stint in the top job. Brissett heads into a favorable Week 4 matchup with plenty of momentum after strong back-to-back performances against the Jets and Steelers where he's completed 74.1 percent of his passes for 449 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
The Browns have an implied total of just under 25 points Sunday, and with Brissett especially displaying impressive rapport with top wideout Amari Cooper over the last two games by facilitating a pair of 101-yard, one-TD efforts for his top target, the veteran quarterback figures to have a solid stake in that offensive success.
Additionally, the fact the Falcons are allowing 271.3 passing yards per game, an NFL-high 71.9 percent completion rate and even a relatively modest 9.9 yards per completion dovetail nicely with Brissett's typical preference to keep his throws in the short-to-middle passing windows. Finally, consider Atlanta has allowed a co-NFL-high seven red-zone passing TDs over the first three weeks, furthering Brissett's case for some touchdown equity.
Cooper Rush, DAL vs. WAS| DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $20
Another backup enjoying his moment in the sun is Rush, who's once again filled in admirably for Dak Prescott (thumb) over the last two-plus games after doing so briefly last season as well. The 28-year-old put together another solid effort to help lead the Cowboys to a second straight win against the Giants on Monday night, and he's thrown for 450 yards at a serviceable 64.5 percent completion rate over his first pair of starts in place of Prescott. The Commanders could well facilitate continued success for Rush, considering they've allowed 274 passing yards per game and the second-highest yards per completion (12.5) in the league.
Washington has also given up six red-zone passing touchdowns over the first three weeks, and the Commanders sport a No. 28 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA plus No. 20 and No. 21 ranks in yards per drive (33.8) and points per drive (2.2), respectively, per Football Outsiders. Moreover, dating back to last season, Rush now has a three-game body of work as a starter that's seen him average 258.3 passing yards per game and forge a 4:1 TD:INT, supporting the notion he could capitalize on this matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jared Goff, DET vs. SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $26
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Jamaal Williams, DET vs. SEA | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $23
The oft-injured D'Andre Swift is once again among the Lions' walking wounded, now dealing with a shoulder injury that projects to keep him out of this Week 4 matchup and possibly beyond. Swift was already limited last week against the Vikings while also managing the gimpy ankle he rolled back in the opener, which gave Williams a chance for an elevated workload that he parlayed into 87 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 carries, along with a pair of receptions for 20 yards. With Swift deemed unlikely to play this week, Williams should have the bulk of rushing volume to himself once more against a suspect Seahawks run defense.
Seattle has opened the season as a sieve on the ground, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (157.0) at a generous 5.1 RB yards per carry, per Football Outsiders. The Seahawks also rank in the bottom 10 in both second-level (1.61) and open-field (1.01) yards per carry surrendered, and they've even given up the fifth-most receptions (20) to RBs, certainly relevant when considering a player of Williams' pass-catching acumen. The fact Williams also enjoys a formidable red-zone role -- he's already halfway to his 2021 total of 24 touches inside the 20 -- is encouraging when considering Seattle has already conceded four rushing touchdowns in that part of the field over the first three games.
Breece Hall, NYJ at PIT| DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $17
Hall has enjoyed a solid start to his career, already flashing his vast potential through both the ground and air while splitting time, as expected, with the similarly talented Michael Carter. The rookie second-round pick now gets a chance to operate with Zach Wilson as his quarterback for the first time in the regular season, which could help lead to more upside for the offense as a whole. To date, Hall has seen his carries increase by one over the prior game in each of the last two weeks, and he logged his first double-digit target game (11) against the Bengals in Week 3, parlaying it into a 6-53 line through the air.
Hall now gets a crack at a Steelers defense that has plenty of talent, but that's nevertheless allowing 4.2 yards per carry to running backs, along with a 16-130 line through the air to the position over the first three games. Hall has matchup-transcending talent and is seemingly enjoying a bigger role each week, which could help him overcome the occasional stuff by Pittsburgh's front to get into space for some chunk plays. Hall's 76.2 percent positive run rate and the fact he's drawn a target on 34.0 percent of his 62 routes run further support the notion he could certainly offer strong returns with enough volume.
ALSO CONSIDER: Rashaad Penny, SEA at DET | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $22
DK/Yahoo Special: Khalil Herbert, CHI at NYG | DK: $5,700 Yahoo: $19
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. WAS | DK: $6,700, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $21
Having already enumerated some of the weaknesses of the Commanders' pass defense in Rush's entry, Lamb becomes an attractive target to pair with his quarterback to not only gain exposure to that matchup, but to plenty of potential production overall at a very reasonable combined salary. Lamb has been very much in sync with Rush over the latter's two starts as well, forging a 15-162-1 line on 23 targets, and that's with a costly drop on a deep pass Monday night against the Giants factored in.
Washington's tendency to give up chunk plays in the secondary should bode well for Lamb, who averaged 13.9 yards per catch and recorded 20 receptions of at least 20 yards across 16 games a year ago. While he's sporting a more modest average of 11.2 yards per reception over his first three games this season, Lamb's aDOT of 10.4 yards is just a tick below last season's career-high 10.5, and he's laying claim to an elevated 34.0 percent of his team's targets and 45.0 percent of the Cowboys' air yards thus far. The third-year wideout also generated a productive 11-127 line with a solid 73.3 percent catch rate in two games versus Washington last season, and he should be in for another busy day in Week 4.
Tyler Lockett, SEA at DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $18
Lockett is another Week 4 wideout undervalued relative to salaries and recent production, as the speedy veteran checks in with a 21-211 line for the season overall, including a 18-183 tally on 22 targets over the last two games. Much like Lamb, Lockett has impressively bounced back after a modest opening game of the season while adapting to working with last year's backup, Geno Smith, as his quarterback. Sunday, the duo gets a golden opportunity to keep their early-season rapport going versus a Lions defense that's had trouble consistently slowing down opponents in the early going of the season.
Detroit checks in allowing 265.7 passing yards per game and 11.1 yards per completion over the first three games, including 12.6 yards per grab to wide receivers specifically. The Lions have also allowed the third-most plays run in the league (211) and have given up an NFL-high 13 touchdowns, numbers that bode well for Lockett's chances of success when considering his team is projected for just over three touchdowns (22 points) as of Thursday. Lockett is already laying claim to 38.4 percent of Seattle's air yards and 26.0 percent of the team's targets, furthering his case in a game that has plenty of fantasy potential.
Alec Pierce, IND vs. TEN | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $10
Pierce's salaries jump off the screen on all three sites, leaving the rookie with an opportunity to potentially deliver handsome returns on those figures in what shapes up as a very favorable matchup on paper against a division rival. Pierce returned from a Week 2 absence due to a concussion to tally the first three catches of his career versus the Chiefs, taking the trio of grabs for 61 yards.
The second-round pick had been held catchless on two targets in Week 1, but now that he's broken the ice with quarterback Matty Ice, he comes into this contest with some momentum against a Tennessee squad that's allowed 256.3 passing yards per game thus far, along with 11.0 yards per completion.
The Titans are also tied with multiple teams with six receiving touchdowns surrendered to receivers over the first three games, and although Michael Pittman Jr. is the clear-cut No. 1 wideout in the Colts' offense, Pierce's 6-foot-3 frame and the fact he's already drawn three targets inside the 20 over two games makes him an appealing option against Tennessee's vulnerable secondary.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jerry Jeudy, DEN at LVR | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $17
DK/Yahoo Special: Amari Cooper, CLE at ATL | DK: $6,300, Yahoo: $23
Tight End DFS Value Plays
David Njoku, CLE at ATL | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $14
Njoku is yet another member of this week's Bargain Bin that has put a non-productive Week 1 firmly behind him over the next two games. The veteran tight end generated just a 1-7 line against the Panthers in Week 1 before building to a 3-32 tally in Week 2, and then setting a new career high with nine receptions, which he turned into 89 yards and a touchdown, in Week 3 against the Steelers. Now faced with one of the most favorable matchups for tight ends in the first three games of the season, Njoku makes for a great cost-effective partner with Brissett in lineups where you need salary to pay up at other positions.
The Falcons have allowed a 19-221-1 line to tight ends on 24 targets through three games, and their previously referenced propensity for allowing red-zone passing touchdowns could also be a boon to Njoku's fantasy production. The 2017 first-round pick has already logged five red-zone looks over the first three games of the season after not having garnered more than nine in any other campaign thus far, which is especially encouraging given the particulars of the matchup. Additionally, Njoku's spike to 15 targets over the last two games after he logged only one in Week 1 isn't necessarily an outlier, considering Brissett's ideal comfort zone passing-wise is in the areas of the field where Njoku typically operates.
Robert Tonyan, GB vs. NE | DK: $3,500, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $14
Tonyan hasn't quite reverted to his pre-injury, 2020 form as of yet, but he's showing some encouraging signs early this season. The tight end was especially involved against the Buccaneers in the Packers' big road win in Week 3, logging a season-high seven targets. Tonyan turned those six catches into a modest 37 yards, but the fifth-year pro certainly has the athleticism to serve as more of a downfield presence. The Patriots have been especially generous to tight ends over the first three weeks of the campaign, conceding 17 receptions, 142 receiving yards and an NFL-high four receiving touchdowns to the position.
Red-zone pass defense has especially been a problem for New England as those numbers imply, with the Pats yielding a 9-for-11, 61-yard, five-touchdown tally through the air in that area of the field. Tonyan has a solid catch rate of just under 80 percent and has been targeted on over 29 percent of his routes, rendering him a very viable and likely low-rostered option in a game in which the Pack is projected for 25 points, the fourth-highest total of Sunday's main slate.
ALSO CONSIDER: Tyler Conklin, NYJ at PIT | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $14
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