RADIO
Welcome to the Super Wild Card Weekend main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Super Wild Card Weekend main slate and I hunt for value plays that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Thanks to the NFL's expanded postseason format, the full wild-card weekend slate is now larger than a 4 pm only ledger during the regular season and as large as some 1 pm only schedules during the heaviest bye weeks. That means we have plenty of options to differentiate our rosters within tournaments, and a solid array of values at each position even with a relatively modest 12 teams in action.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. NYG | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $27
Cousins' salaries are certainly eye-catching when factoring in the type of ceiling he displayed on numerous occasions this season, including against the same Giants squad he'll face Sunday. The veteran signal-caller threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in Minnesota's Week 16 win against the G-Men, netting 24.2 fantasy points across all three sites. Minnesota's pass-heavy attack should only ramp up now that the stakes have risen, and New York makes for a good target once again, even if talented cornerback Adoree' Jackson is able to make it back from an extended absence due to a knee injury.
The Giants wrapped up the regular season allowing 242.4 passing yards per road game, compared to a much stingier 188.8 per home contest. New York also yielded the eighth-most completions per road game (22.8) at a robust clip of 10.7 yards per completion, as well as the third-most red-zone passing yards (349) and 16 red-zone passing touchdowns. That's especially relevant when paired with the fact the G-Men tied with several teams for third-most red-zone scoring attempts per road game allowed (3.8) and Cousins put up a career-high 109 red-zone pass attempts this season.
Daniel Jones, NYG at MIN | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $32
Jones makes for an attractive play on the other side of the Giants-Vikings tilt, especially with the game's projected total of 47.5 points tying for the highest of the slate as of Thursday afternoon. Like Cousins, Jones had a productive game in the Week 16 meeting between the clubs, throwing for 334 yards and a touchdown while adding 34 rushing yards. Jones' rushing upside -- he ran for a career-high 708 yards and scored a career-best seven TDs on the ground this season – makes him all the more appealing, as does the fact he scored at least 18 DK points and at least 17 FD/Yahoo points in nine of his 16 contests overall.
The Vikings finished the regular season allowing the second-most passing yards per home game (280.0) at 10.9 yards per completion in that split. Minnesota also surrendered a 66.6 percent completion rate at U.S. Bank Stadium and 5.5 yards per rush attempt to quarterbacks as well; the latter figure especially relevant when considering Jones, who rushed for a career-high 708 yards and 5.9 yards per carry in his first year in head coach Brian Daboll's offense. Jones logged 22 of his rush attempts inside the 10-yard line as well, while the Vikes gave up 15 red-zone rushing TDs and four on the ground to QBs overall.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Tom Brady, TB vs. DAL | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $24
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Travis Etienne, JAC vs. LAC | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $22
Etienne makes for a very intriguing play in a game that will likely see the Jaguars turn to the run a bit more than usual given the Chargers' elite pass defense. Los Angeles enters the wild-card clash having allowed just 202.2 passing yards per road game, along with a stingy 62.2% completion rate in that split. In contrast, the Bolts have yielded the fourth-most rushing yards per road game (156.0) and an NFL-high 5.6 yards per carry, and Etienne posted 75 total yards on 16 touches versus the Chargers back in Week 3 when he was still splitting time with the since-traded James Robinson. Etienne also gained 5.1 yards per carry and eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground five times in the 10 games between Weeks 7 and 17, with the former marking his first game as the lead back.
In addition to the worrisome metrics already provided, it's also worth noting the Bolts also tied with the Raiders for second-most receiving touchdowns given up to running backs (five). Los Angeles finished the campaign with the second-most rushing yards surrendered to running backs (2,164), and the Chargers also held ranks of No. 31 and No. 32 in second-level and open-field yards surrendered, respectively. Etienne counters with an elite 21.8 percent broken-tackle rate and eight runs of 20+ yards, including four of 40+. Given his elite speed, he certainly has the upside to bust past the first line of defense and exploit those vulnerabilities.
Leonard Fournette, TB vs. DAL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $15
Fournette spent most of the stretch run splitting time fairly evenly with rookie backfield mate Rachaad White, but now that we're in the postseason, it wouldn't be surprising to see the former leaned on a bit heavier, especially when considering his elite pass-catching ability as well. Fournette enjoyed plenty of success versus the Cowboys in Week 1 as well with a 21-127 line on the ground that yielded 18.7 DK/ 14.7 FD/Yahoo points, and he recorded multiple receptions in all but one game in which he logged double-digit snaps. The veteran bruiser also has a positive postseason history since joining the Buccaneers, averaging 21.2 DK/18.9 FD/Yahoo points back during the 2020 Super Bowl run and then racking up 31.7 DK/27.2 FD/Yahoo points in the wild-card loss to the Rams last January.
The Cowboys surrendered 132.6 rushing yards per road game this season and did so at 4.7 yards per carry in that split. Dallas was particularly effective in keeping backs out of the end zone -- Dallas tied with multiple teams for second-fewest rushing TDs given up to RBs (six) -- but Fournette has a robust enough role to be able to justify his salaries, especially considering he recorded a career-high 73 receptions and 523 receiving yards on 83 targets, giving him an impressive 88% catch rate.
ALSO CONSIDER:
J.K. Dobbins, BAL at CIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $18 // Elijah Mitchell, SF vs. SEA | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $14
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Joshua Palmer, LAC at JAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $15
Mike Williams remains very questionable to suit up for Saturday night's contest due to the back injury he suffered in Week 18 , with the star wideout failing to practice throughout the week. Given the veteran's injury history, that could well portend an absence, which would thrust Palmer back into the starting role he was often productive in this season (UPDATE: Williams has now been officially ruled out).
The second-year wideout produced a 60-640-3 line in the 11 games during which he logged at least 50 snaps, notching six double-digit fantasy-point tallies along the way. One of those games came against the same Jags defense he'll see again Saturday, with Palmer posting a 6-99 line that produced 15.9 DK/12.9 FD/Yahoo points back in Week 3 while filling in for Keenan Allen.
Jacksonville surrendered 238.5 passing yards per game overall on the season, and while the Jags were much tougher at home, they did tie for third-most touchdowns surrendered to wide receivers (18) on the campaign. Additionally, the Jaguars conceded 10.7 yards per completion at home -- the seventh-highest figure in the league -- along with 18 red-zone passing touchdowns for the season. For his part, Palmer finished the season with a superb 67.3 % catch rate and tiny 1.9% drop rate, and he lay claim to 22.3% of the Bolts' air yards despite not filling a starting role the entire season.
Gabe Davis, BUF vs. MIA | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $16
Davis may not have as high a rostering rate on the six-game slate as one would think, given he finished the regular season in a fairly modest fashion while averaging only 8.7 DK/7.0 FD/Yahoo points per contest in the last six outings. Davis mustered a 19-224-2 line during that span, but he did draw between five and 10 targets in five of those games and carries just the type of big-play upside that can help rocket you to the top of the standings in tournaments if he checks in at a low enough rostering rate.
The speedy wideout also boasts last January's unforgettable 8-201-4 line against the Chiefs in the divisional round as his most recent playoff experience, and he has more than enough skill to exploit the Dolphins' tendency to give up chunk plays through the air on the road.
Miami allowed the third-most passing yards per road game (253.9), along with the seventh-most completions (23.4) and 10.8 yards per completion on the road (compared to 8.3 at home). The Fins also yielded the seventh-most receptions (224) to wideouts at 11.7 yards per catch, and Miami surrendered 704 passing yards and eight touchdowns to Josh Allen and his air attack in the two regular-season meetings this season. Finally, consider Davis' 15.2-yard aDOT and 28.5% share of the team's air yards continue to afford him an expansive ceiling, even if he hasn't consistently demonstrated it in recent weeks.
Darius Slayton, NYG at MIN | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $17
Many might first go to Isaiah Hodgins or Richie James if looking at one of the many value Giants wideouts, but Slayton is the highest-upside play of the bunch for tournaments and potentially the lowest-rostered player of the trio. Slayton averaged a career-high 10.7 yards per target and 15.7 yards per catch, and he took 12 of his 46 receptions for 20+ yards. The veteran posted a solid 4-79 line on six targets in Week 16 against the Vikings, and Minnesota remains a highly targetable secondary after having allowed an NFL-high 250 receptions and 3,266 receiving yards to wideouts, along with 13 touchdowns.
Slayton's peripheral metrics all speak to the ceiling he offers for tournaments -- he laid claim to 28.1% of the Giants' air yards this regular season while sporting a 12.0-yard aDOT and averaging an elevated 1.9 yards/route run. He also proved to be a legitimate asset after the ball was in his hands, impressively averaging just under 6.0 yards after the catch per reception. Then, the fact Minnesota gave up a robust 13.1 yards per reception and 66.3% catch rate to wideouts dovetails nicely with Slayton's downfield role and the fact he generated a career-low 4.2% drop rate.
ALSO CONSIDER:
K.J. Osborn, MIN vs. NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $16 // Richie James, NYG at MIN | DK: $3,900, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $20
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Evan Engram, JAC vs. LAC | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $17
Engram's 26-337-2 line in Weeks 14-16 is a bit in the background now that the veteran tight end finished with just five catches for 43 yards in the Jags' last pair of regular-season contests, which actually makes him more appealing as a tournament. Recent game logs should make Engram a bit less rostered than he would have been had he remained hot, and with the Chargers doing such an effective job against receivers the majority of the season, he should be a solid part of the game plan, especially with Los Angeles allowing a robust 13.9 yards per catch to tight ends.
L.A. finished the season ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per completion allowed (11.0), including 11.7 over the last three games. All those figures dovetail nicely with Engram's profile in Doug Pederson's offense, a scheme in which he posted the second-highest yards per target in his career (7.8) and second-most receptions of 20+ yards (10). Engram also averaged a robust 1.54 yards per route run this season, a figure that dwarfs the 0.94 he posted in his final Giants season in 2021.
Dawson Knox, BUF vs. MIA | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $19
Knox posted a combined 10-123-1 line on 12 targets in two games against the Dolphins this regular season, and he closed out the campaign with a touchdown reception in each of his last four contests. That led to tallies of 12.8-21.8 DK points and 11.3 to 18.8 FD/Yahoo points in those games, solid-to-excellent returns on his current salaries. The Dolphins were also one of the most vulnerable teams to tight ends all season, surrendering the third-most DK (15.2) and FD (12.1) points per game to the position.
Those figures stem from Miami conceding the third-most receptions (98) and eighth-most receiving yards (954) to tight ends, along with the third-most touchdowns (10). Miami also tied for second-most passing touchdowns (24) given up in the red zone, while Knox logged four of his 11 red-zone targets in the last three games of the season and posted a 45.5% touchdown conversion rate on his passes inside the 20 this season. In turn, the Fins yielded a 65.8% touchdown scoring percentage in the red zone on the road.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dalton Schultz, DAL at TB | DK: $4,300, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $18
DK-Only Special: T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. NYG | $5,100
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