NFL DFS Prop Picks for 10/7/19 - Monkey Knife Fight

There are just two undefeated teams remaining in the National Football League and one of them, the San Francisco 49ers, is at home for the Monday nighter against a resurgent Cleveland Browns team. It’s a primetime opportunity for both teams to prove that they are for real.

The 49ers are 3-0, playing at home, and coming off a bye week and have an impressive defense that has allowed 4.7 yards against per play.

Cleveland has had some ups and downs early in the season, though that is substantially better than what has been standard Browns behavior for years. They are 2-2 and put up 40 points at Baltimore in Week Four.

Can the 49ers remain unbeaten? Can the Browns build on their recent progress?

Here are some angles to consider when making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.

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CLEVELAND-SAN FRANCISCO

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – Although Garoppolo has averaged 246.3 passing yards per game, that does include better production (563 passing yards) in the past two games after a meagre 166 yards in the season opener. However, the Browns Defense has been strong against the pass, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt (which is about average) and giving up 215.3 passing yards per game which ranks in the top quarter of the league.

Baker Mayfield OVER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – The Browns are more likely to be chasing in this game as the underdogs so that should provide more opportunities to throw and Baker has averaged 286.8 passing yards per game. He does face a stout 49ers Defense that is allowing just 208.3 passing yards per game and an impressive 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

Odell Beckham OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS – This is more about Beckham being capable of more than what he’s been able to provide thus far. He had just two catches for 20 yards against the Ravens last week and while he’s averaging 77.0 receiving yards per game, he’s been held to 76 yards or fewer in three of four games this season.

Nick Chubb UNDER 86.5 RUSHING YARDS – The rising star in the Browns backfield has 261 rushing yards on 43 carries in the past two games, and that’s against the Rams and Ravens, so it would come as no surprise if the Browns try to turn Chubb loose against San Francisco. At the same time, this is a 49ers defense that is strong against the run in its own right, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and 75.0 rushing yards per game.

George Kittle OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS – Although the 49ers tight end has been underwhelming early in the season, putting up 17 catches for 165 yards in three games, he is the focal point of the San Francisco passing attack and expecting a little bit more in this game is not an unreasonable position to take.

RAPID FIRE

George Kittle -1.5 receptions vs. Jarvis Landry – Coming into Week Five, Kittle is averaging 5.7 receptions per game and Landry is averaging 4.5 receptions per game. That makes the 1.5 margin reasonably close. But, with Landry coming off of a concussion and given their respective roles in their teams’ offense, it makes sense to side with Kittle.

Matt Breida +36.5 rushing yards vs. Nick Chubb – As noted above, Chubb has picked up the pace in the past couple of games but so too has Breida, who has 189 yards on 26 carries (7.3 ypc) in the past two games. San Francisco’s superior run defense also works in Breida’s favor for this matchup.

Odell Beckham -32.5 receiving yards vs. Deebo Samuel – While it’s conceivable that Samuel could cover this number against Beckham if he has one of his mediocre weeks (and he’s had three already!), OBJ’s ceiling is so much higher, to go with a much more proven track record, that he’s worth the play here.

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