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NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key NFC West coaches.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFC West to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will maintain their core offensive coaching staffs. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams will make a change at offensive coordinator and the Arizona Cardinals will have a whole new coaching staff.
Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the NFC West!
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Los Angeles Rams
2023 Head Coach: Sean McVay
Sean McVay has previously worked as an offensive coordinator for Washington (2014-2016) and has served as the Los Angeles Rams head coach since 2017. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Los Angeles Rams players in 2023.
Comparison To NFL League Averages
| Year | Games | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points | PPR TE Fantasy Points |
| 2014 | 16 | 7.66 | -27.52 | -3.32 | 7.52 | -37.72 | 11.52 | 7.22 | -47.92 | 26.52 |
| 2015 | 16 | -20.4 | -16.08 | 55.38 | -23.1 | -12.98 | 67.86 | -25.8 | -10.04 | 80.5 |
| 2016 | 16 | 15.84 | 38.74 | 60.84 | 13.4 | 47.34 | 79.76 | 11.12 | 55.94 | 98.68 |
| 2017 | 16 | 82.18 | 55.42 | -35.88 | 78.06 | 63.36 | -46.9 | 74.1 | 71.14 | -57.92 |
| 2018 | 16 | 96.14 | 119.3 | -26.06 | 89.86 | 139.44 | -33.38 | 83.58 | 159.42 | -40.54 |
| 2019 | 16 | -29.68 | 67.64 | 28.88 | -51.98 | 95.66 | 46.28 | -74.44 | 123.84 | 63.68 |
| 2020 | 16 | -1.76 | -20.24 | 10.14 | -14.36 | 0.34 | 16.56 | -27.12 | 20.92 | 22.98 |
| 2021 | 17 | -43.79 | 225.96 | -31.75 | -58.26 | 263.05 | -38.71 | -72.73 | 300.14 | -45.84 |
| 2022 | 17 | -68.48 | -27.31 | -24.77 | -82.57 | -21.48 | -23.37 | -96.83 | -15.65 | -22.14 |
Above are the number of fantasy points that Sean McVay's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.
| Sean McVay Career Team Fantasy Value Vs. Year By Year League Average Fantasy Value | |||||||||
| Category | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points |
PPR TE Fantasy Points
|
| Net Value | 37.71 | 415.91 | 33.46 | -41.43 | 537.01 | 79.62 | -120.90 | 657.79 | 125.92 |
| Yearly Avg | 4.19 | 46.21 | 3.72 | -4.60 | 59.67 | 8.85 | -13.43 | 73.09 | 13.99 |
| Per Game Value | 0.26 | 2.85 | 0.23 | -0.28 | 3.68 | 0.55 | -0.83 | 4.51 | 0.86 |
| Best Season | 96.14 | 225.96 | 60.84 | 89.86 | 263.05 | 79.76 | 83.58 | 300.14 | 98.68 |
| Worst Season | -68.48 | -27.52 | -35.88 | -82.57 | -37.72 | -46.90 | -96.83 | -47.92 | -57.92 |
2023 Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
Prior to taking the offensive coordinator job with the Los Angeles Rams this past offseason, Mike LaFleur had previously worked as an offensive coordinator for the New York Jets (2021-2022) at the NFL level. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Los Angeles Rams players in 2023.
Comparison To NFL League Averages
| Year | Games | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points | PPR TE Fantasy Points |
| 2021 | 17 | -42.89 | -13.54 | -51.85 | -42.36 | -8.45 | -67.31 | -41.83 | -3.36 | -82.94 |
| 2022 | 17 | -24.68 | -45.21 | -9.97 | -19.77 | -52.88 | -9.07 | -15.03 | -60.55 | -8.34 |
Above are the number of fantasy points that Mike LaFleur's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.
| Mike LaFleur Career Team Fantasy Value Vs. Year By Year League Average Fantasy Value | |||||||||
| Category | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points |
PPR TE Fantasy Points
|
| Net Value | -67.57 | -58.75 | -61.82 | -62.13 | -61.33 | -76.38 | -56.86 | -63.91 | -91.28 |
| Yearly Avg | -33.79 | -29.38 | -30.91 | -31.07 | -30.67 | -38.19 | -28.43 | -31.96 | -45.64 |
| Per Game Value | -1.99 | -1.73 | -1.82 | -1.83 | -1.80 | -2.25 | -1.67 | -1.88 | -2.68 |
| Best Season | -24.68 | -13.54 | -9.97 | -19.77 | -8.45 | -9.07 | -15.03 | -3.36 | -8.34 |
| Worst Season | -42.89 | -45.21 | -51.85 | -42.36 | -52.88 | -67.31 | -41.83 | -60.55 | -82.94 |
Sean McVay and Mike LaFleur's Takeaways & Expectations
Sean McVay is well-known for being a football genius, but how have his teams looked in terms of fantasy performance?
The data for each position is pretty interesting. Outside of the stretch where Sean McVay had prime Todd Gurley as his running back, McVay's running back room has pretty consistently been below average. Jumping to the wide receiver position, McVay has been one of the best in the business in getting fantasy production out of the position group. Lastly, looking at the tight end position, McVay's offense did a good job keeping the position involved during his time in Washington (2014-2016) but has been more middling during his time in Los Angeles.
Based on this information:
- Cam Akers seems overvalued at his current ranking (50th overall on FantasyPros) for the 2023 season
- Cooper Kupp is still a clear first-round fantasy pick in this offense, and there's a strong chance at least one of Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Puka Nacua can end up being in the FLEX mix this year.
- Tyler Higbee will be fantasy-relevant as a streamer but you should still be shooting for more upside in fantasy drafts
Besides Sean McVay, we should also briefly take a look at how new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur's offenses have done in terms of fantasy production in case he has to take over play-calling duties.
During his two years with the Jets, all of Mike LaFleur's position groups were below average in terms of fantasy production. While a large part of this almost certainly has to do with the subpar quarterback play from Zach Wilson, with Matthew Stafford's recent injury history there's a strong possibility he will end up working with subpar quarterbacks during the 2023 season as well.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Matthew Stafford, Brett Rypien, Stetson Bennett, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers, Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee, and Brycen Hopkins
San Francisco 49ers
2023 Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan
Kyle Shanahan has been the San Francisco 49ers' head coach since 2017. In addition, he has previously served as an offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans (2008-2009), Washington Redskins (2010-2013), Cleveland Browns (2014), and Atlanta Falcons (2015-2016). Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Shanahan's team offensive statistics over the course of his 242-game career in an offensive coordinator or head coach role to get a better understanding of how the 49ers may utilize their offensive players in 2023.
| Year | Games | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points | PPR TE Fantasy Points |
| 2008 | 16 | -4.9 | 102.82 | 9.26 | -5.7 | 121.1 | 17.28 | -6.5 | 139.38 | 25.46 |
| 2009 | 16 | 38.88 | 56.8 | 50.44 | 55.78 | 63.1 | 70.1 | 72.68 | 69.24 | 89.92 |
| 2010 | 16 | -19.98 | -44.06 | 47.02 | -20.74 | -53.14 | 62.14 | -21.66 | -62.38 | 77.1 |
| 2011 | 16 | -38.28 | -18.42 | -0.98 | -33.1 | -20.04 | 2.72 | -27.92 | -21.5 | 6.42 |
| 2012 | 16 | 10.62 | 28.02 | -30.14 | -3.76 | 29.14 | -39.7 | -18.14 | 30.1 | -49.1 |
| 2013 | 16 | -26.54 | -0.1 | 3.18 | -42.04 | 16.1 | 8.54 | -57.38 | 32.3 | 13.9 |
| 2014 | 16 | -0.24 | -38.92 | -20.12 | -22.38 | -44.12 | -29.28 | -44.68 | -49.32 | -38.28 |
| 2015 | 16 | 35.2 | 35.12 | -38.02 | 38 | 58.72 | -43.04 | 40.8 | 82.16 | -47.9 |
| 2016 | 16 | 118.54 | 98.44 | 21.04 | 124.1 | 107.54 | 11.96 | 129.82 | 116.64 | 2.88 |
| 2017 | 16 | -26.02 | -20.68 | 7.72 | -27.14 | -20.24 | 5.2 | -28.1 | -19.96 | 2.68 |
| 2018 | 16 | -30.36 | -60.2 | 72.34 | -45.14 | -83.56 | 83.52 | -59.92 | -107.08 | 94.86 |
| 2019 | 16 | 103.32 | -41.96 | 39.48 | 91.02 | -62.44 | 52.88 | 78.56 | -82.76 | 66.28 |
| 2020 | 16 | 51.04 | -79.44 | 31.64 | 50.44 | -94.36 | 41.56 | 49.68 | -109.28 | 51.48 |
| 2021 | 17 | -61.49 | 17.26 | 20.05 | -76.46 | 1.85 | 19.59 | -91.43 | -13.56 | 18.96 |
| 2022 | 17 | 48.62 | -38.61 | 45.53 | 44.03 | -48.78 | 39.93 | 39.27 | -58.95 | 34.16 |
Above are the number of fantasy points that Kyle Shanahan's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.
| Kyle Shanahan Career Team Fantasy Value Vs. Year By Year League Average Fantasy Value | |||||||||
| Category | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points |
PPR TE Fantasy Points
|
| Net Value | 198.41 | -3.93 | 258.44 | 126.91 | -29.13 | 303.40 | 55.08 | -54.97 | 348.82 |
| Yearly Avg | 13.23 | -0.26 | 17.23 | 8.46 | -1.94 | 20.23 | 3.67 | -3.66 | 23.25 |
| Per Game Value | 0.82 | -0.02 | 1.07 | 0.52 | -0.12 | 1.25 | 0.23 | -0.23 | 1.44 |
| Best Season | 118.54 | 102.82 | 72.34 | 124.10 | 121.10 | 83.52 | 129.82 | 139.38 | 94.86 |
| Worst Season | -61.49 | -79.44 | -38.02 | -76.46 | -94.36 | -43.04 | -91.43 | -109.28 | -49.10 |
Kyle Shanahan's Takeaways & Expectations
Kyle Shanahan is one of the better offensive minds in the league and has seen some great fantasy seasons from his teams.
Looking at the data, Shanahan's offense has gotten very strong fantasy production from the running back room since 2015, has been consistently below average in fantasy production for the wide receiver room since 2017, and has been consistently above average in terms of getting production out of the tight end room.
Based on this information:
- Christian McCaffrey is clearly worth a top 5 pick
- Deebo Samuel is more likely to have a WR2 season (rank between WR12 and WR24) than bounce back to being the WR1 he was in 2021.
- Brandon Aiyuk's ceiling is more of a FLEX play
- George Kittle will continue to be one of the better fantasy tight ends in the league...as long as he stays healthy
Fantasy Relevant Players: Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Trey Lance, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Danny Gray, Chris Conley, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, and Cameron Latu
Seattle Seahawks
2023 Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
Shane Waldron has worked as the Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator since the 2021 NFL season. Prior to joining the Seattle Seahawks, Waldron served as the passing game coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams (2018-2020) and had also previously spent time with New England (2008-2009) and Washington (2016). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Waldron's experiences running an offense to get a better understanding of how the Seahawks may utilize their offensive players in 2023.
| Year | Games | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points | PPR TE Fantasy Points |
| 2021 | 17 | -0.79 | 48.66 | -19.05 | -12.76 | 38.25 | -22.51 | -24.73 | 27.84 | -26.14 |
| 2022 | 17 | -13.48 | 35.09 | 57.23 | -18.07 | 43.42 | 73.13 | -22.83 | 51.75 | 88.86 |
Above are the number of fantasy points that Shane Waldron's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.
| Shane Waldron Career Team Fantasy Value Vs. Year By Year League Average Fantasy Value | |||||||||
| Category | Standard HB Fantasy Points | Standard WR Fantasy Points | Standard TE Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR HB Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR WR Fantasy Points | 0.5 PPR TE Fantasy Points | PPR HB Fantasy Points | PPR WR Fantasy Points |
PPR TE Fantasy Points
|
| Net Value | -14.27 | 83.75 | 38.18 | -30.83 | 81.67 | 50.62 | -47.56 | 79.59 | 62.72 |
| Yearly Avg | -7.13 | 41.88 | 19.09 | -15.42 | 40.84 | 25.31 | -23.78 | 39.80 | 31.36 |
| Per Game Value | -0.42 | 2.46 | 1.12 | -0.91 | 2.40 | 1.49 | -1.40 | 2.34 | 1.84 |
| Best Season | -0.79 | 48.66 | 57.23 | -12.76 | 43.42 | 73.13 | -22.83 | 51.75 | 88.86 |
| Worst Season | -13.48 | 35.09 | -19.05 | -18.07 | 38.25 | -22.51 | -24.73 | 27.84 | -26.14 |
Shane Waldron's Takeaways & Expectations
Shane Waldron has been a pretty good offensive coordinator in terms of fantasy football production over his two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks.
While he has only been an offensive coordinator for two years thus far, there are a couple of trends to monitor with Shane Waldron's offense. First, his running back room as a whole has actually been below average in 0.5 PPR formats in each of the last two years. This is concerning for Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet owners because not only is the backfield looking like a committee, there's a strong chance the size of the pie is smaller as well in this offense.
Second, Waldron's wide receiver room has had an above-average fantasy output in each of the last two years. This is great news if you roster DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba since it indicates that this is a point of emphasis in the Seahawks' offense.
Lastly, the tight end room has had one above-average year and one below-average year in terms of fantasy output. You shouldn't draft Noah Fant in your fantasy draft(s), but he will be a solid matchup-based streamer on a week-to-week basis.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Geno Smith, Drew Lock, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, DeeJay Dallas, Kenny McIntosh, DK Metcalf, Dee Eskridge, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, and Nick Bellore
Arizona Cardinals
2023 Offensive Coordinator: Drew Petzing
Drew Petzing has previously worked for the Minnesota Vikings as an offensive assistant (2014-2015), assistant wide receivers coach (2016-2017), assistant quarterbacks coach (2018), and wide receivers coach (2019) as well as for the Cleveland Browns as a football operations intern (2013), tight ends coach (2020-2021), and quarterbacks coach (2022). 2023 will be his first time in an offensive coordinator role.
Drew Petzing's Takeaways & Expectations
It's hard to get a great read on what Drew Petzing's offensive philosophy will be given this is his first time in an offensive play-calling role at any level – high school, college, or NFL. Given how much time he has spent working around Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski in both Minnesota and Cleveland, there's a good chance that he operates in a similar manner with a more run-centric offense than the Cardinals have had in the past.
If this is indeed the case, running backs James Conner and Keaontay Ingram are going to be undervalued in fantasy drafts and good buys before the season starts. As for receiving weapons, Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz are the only ones worth even considering drafting in this offense and may still be overvalued given the play-calling change and the question marks around starting quarterback Kyler Murray's health for 2023.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, David Blough, James Conner, Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, Ty'Son Williams, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal, Michael Wilson, Zach Ertz, and Trey McBride
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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