NFL Coaching Matters: NFC South Preview

July 23, 2023

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key NFC South coaches.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFC South to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints will maintain their core offensive coaching staffs while the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have new play-callers in 2023.

Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the NFC South!

Atlanta Falcons

2023 Head Coach: Arthur Smith

Arthur Smith has been the Atlanta Falcons' head coach since 2021 and also served as an offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans from 2019 to 2020. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Atlanta Falcons players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Arthur Smith's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone

Dave Ragone has worked as an offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons since 2021. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Atlanta Falcons players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Dave Ragone's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Dave Ragone has only served as an offensive coordinator as a part of Arthur Smith's coaching staff, this section will primarily focus on what fantasy production we've seen from the offenses that Arthur Smith has been a part of as an offensive coordinator or head coach.

Looking at Smith's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of trends to pay attention to. First, Arthur Smith's offense has always resulted in above-average fantasy production for the running back room. Secondly, Smith's wide receiver room has pretty consistently been average or below average for fantasy production. Lastly, Smith's tight-end rooms have generally been good for fantasy purposes over the course of his career, with the exception of the 2022 season.

Based on this information:

• As much as some people may worry about drafting a rookie in the first round, Bijan Robinson is about as safe a bet as you can get since he has both the talent and the offensive situation to be successful. He should be a first-round lock in your league and you could even make the case that he should be taken top five overall.
• Smith's offenses haven't done a good job with fantasy wide receivers over the course of his career. Drake London is the only wide receiver even worth considering in fantasy drafts on this team, and even he seems a little pricey.
• Kyle Pitts was one of the biggest busts last year in fantasy leagues, but it likely was an outlier based on Arthur Smith's previous track record. He's a good buy-low opportunity at his current ADP for redraft leagues.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley, Drake London, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, KhaDarel Hodge, Jonnu Smith, and Kyle Pitts

New Orleans Saints

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael Jr.

Pete Carmichael has been the New Orleans Saints' offensive coordinator since 2009. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Carmichael's team offensive statistics over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator role to get a better understanding of how the Saints may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Pete Carmichael's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Pete Carmichael's Takeaways & Expectations

Because New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen has been more defensive-minded over the course of his career, we will look at long-term Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael's data in this section.

There have been a couple of trends to take notice with Pete Carmichael Jr.'s offense. First is that while Carmichael's running back room had been above-average in fantasy production for every single season from 2009-2020, it has been below the NFL league averages in each of the last two seasons. Second, the Saints' wide receiver room has struggled over the past four years in Carmichael's offense. Third, we haven't seen the Saints' tight end room be very good for fantasy purposes since Jimmy Graham was on the team.

Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• The running back room as a whole bounces back a bit from a fantasy production standpoint. Because the team most likely rolls with a committee between Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Miller we should expect the starting running back Alvin Kamara to be more of a mid to high-end RB2 this year.
• Pete Carmichael's wide receiver rooms have struggled over the past four years. Chris Olave should be a strong WR2 for fantasy, but Michael Thomas is a very risky investment at this point in his career since this offense may be only able to support one starting-caliber fantasy wide receiver.
• This offense has had just one above-average fantasy year for the tight end room since 2016. Don't waste your draft pick on Juwan Johnson, he's a matchup-based streamer in this offense.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Derek Carr, Jake Haener, Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Keandre Miller, Dwayne Washington, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Tre'Quan Smith, James Washington, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Jesse James

Carolina Panthers

2023 Head Coach: Frank Reich

The Carolina Panthers hired a new head coach this offseason in Frank Reich. Frank Reich had previously served as the San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator (2014-2015), the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator (2016-2017), and the Indianapolis Colts head coach (2018-2022).

Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Reich's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Panthers may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Frank Reich's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Frank Reich & Thomas Brown's Takeaways & Expectations

Because head coach Frank Reich has more experience in an offensive play-calling role and offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will be a first-time offensive coordinator at the NFL level in 2023, we will primarily focus on Frank Reich's previous tendencies in this section.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Frank Reich's 0.5 PPR data. First, his running back room has consistently been above average in terms of fantasy production. Second, his wide receiver room has been generally below average for fantasy purposes over the course of his career as a head coach. Third, Reich's tight end room has consistently been above-average over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller.

Based on this information:

• There is value in the Panthers backfield and Miles Sanders should be a solid RB2.
• The Panthers' wide receiver room already wasn't the most talented on paper, but when you add in the fact that Frank Reich's track record isn't very good for fantasy wide receivers it makes it hard to believe that any of Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., or Jonathan Mingo will be more than a BYE week fill-in on most fantasy teams.
• Hayden Hurst is criminally undervalued at his current ADP and has a real shot to be a TE1 in this offense. He's a fantastic dice roll late in drafts.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, Matt Corral, Miles Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear, Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo, Laviska Shenault Jr., Shi Smith, Damiere Byrd, Hayden Hurst, Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Dave Canales

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fired Byron Leftwich and hired Dave Canales to be their new offensive coordinator this past offseason. This will be Canales's first time as an offensive coordinator at the NFL level. Prior to taking the job, Canales spent his entire NFL career with the Seattle Seahawks, working as a wide receivers coach (2010-2017), quarterbacks coach (2018-2019, 2022), and passing game coordinator (2020-2021).

Dave Canales's Takeaways & Expectations

It's hard to get a great read on what Dave Canales's offensive philosophy will be given this is his first time in an offensive play-calling role at the NFL level, Given his long history with the Seattle Seahawks, we can take a guess at how his offense will look by examining some of the offensive coordinators that Canales has worked under – Jeremy Bates (2010), Darrell Bevell (2011-2017), Brian Schottenheimer (2018-2020), and Shane Waldron (2021-2022) – and get a better idea of how his coaching philosophy may have been influenced over the years.

If Canales rolls under a similar approach to the two coaches he worked the longest with, Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, then the running back room will be utilized more than they were last year. This would be good news for anyone rostering Rachaad White and suggest that he's a good value at his current ADP.

As for the wide receiver room, it's hard to see them getting 458 targets (26.94 per game) again next year – as talented as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans may be. We should expect some scale back here in terms of volume and efficiency given the coaching and quarterback changes for the Buccaneers.

Lastly, the Seattle Seahawks were pretty up and down in utilizing tight ends in the passing game during Canales's time as a position coach. Based on this, Cade Otton more than likely will be a matchup-based streamer for fantasy leagues in the 2023 season.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, John Wolford, Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Patrick Laird, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins, Kaylon Geiger, Cade Otton, and Payne Durham

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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