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Benjamin Chase breaks down the recent trade between the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers that sent Michael Busch and a reliever to Chicago for two prospects. Will this impact 2024 fantasy baseball, and what about future seasons?
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers hooked up on Thursday, January 11 for a trade that will have an immediate impact in all fantasy baseball leagues, but the deal could have tentacles that reach out for quite some time due to the players that were involved.
The interesting part of this was two teams matching up with their strengths in a deal. The Dodgers utilized their impressive MLB-ready depth to entice the Cubs to give up two well-regarded members of one of the deepest farm systems in the game.
Let's take a deeper look at the deal!
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Cubs-Dodgers Trade and 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Cubs Acquire: 1B/3B Michael Busch, RP Yency Almonte
Dodgers Acquire: SP Jackson Ferris, OF Zyhir Hope
Michael Bush - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers did not have a full-time spot in their lineup for Michael Busch, a player they drafted in the first round in 2019 out of the University of North Carolina. The former Minnesota prepster crushed 32 home runs in 184 collegiate games. He's continued to show impressive power throughout his minor league time, hitting 79 home runs in 357 career minor league games while slashing .283/.390/.529.
All along the way, Busch has posted high walk rates and improved his strikeout rate. This year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, Busch posted a 13.9% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate in 98 games before a 27-game audition in the majors showed him striking out too much.
After three years playing in the upper levels of the minor leagues, Busch simply needed to take the next step to the majors, and the Cubs offer him that opportunity. Jed Hoyer has already stated that Busch will be heading into the season at first base for the Cubs, though he has the defensive ability to handle third and second as well.
Fantasy owners should be wary of expecting a high batting average out of the gate with Busch, but he's shown throughout his minor league tenure that he adapts well at a level and cuts down on swing and miss the longer he's at a level. Even with a potentially rough April/May as he works through his first full-time opportunity around the league, Busch should still clear 25 home runs and has a chance at 30 with his natural left-handed power, Wrigley as a home park, and the opportunity to hold down the position for an extended time.
Yency Almonte - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Analysis
Another player made available due to the depth of the Dodgers, reliever Yency Almonte was, at best, going to be a sixth-inning guy. With no options remaining, a player in that role is quite "movable" for Los Angeles. He isn't likely going to be stepping into a setup role with the Dodgers, but the 6-foot-5 righty will be looking to have his first season with more than 50 appearances.
Almonte is a slider-dominant reliever that sits 95+ mph on average with his fastball that he utilizes 42-45% of the time. His slider that he used 50%+ in 2023 is 83-85 mph, which is a wicked pitch. After a brilliant season statistically in 2022 where he posted a 1.02 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 33 appearance, Almonte had nearly equal underlying statistics in 2023 and produced a 5.06 ERA. The biggest difference was a 96% strand rate and 7% HR/FB rate, exceptional outliers in his major league career.
While Almonte is not likely to supplant Albert Alzolay as the closer for the Cubs, he very well could move into a setup role, though he pitches in the fourth through sixth inning. Almonte posted a 1.08 ERA and allowed a .490 OPS in 18 appearances while from the seventh inning or later, he posted a 7.42 ERA and allowed an .812 OPS.
Jackson Ferris - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Analysis
The top piece acquired by the Dodgers in this deal is left-handed pitching prospect Jackson Ferris. The Cubs drafted Ferris in the second round in 2022 and signed him for just over $3 million, nearly double the draft slot value for the 47th pick of $1.66 million. Ferris was ranked No. 19 in MLB Pipeline's pre-2022 draft rankings. The 6-foot-4 lefty struggled in his senior season in high school with consistency, leading many clubs to assume that he'd head to the University of Mississippi, allowing him to drop to the Cubs, requiring a huge signing bonus to keep him from Ole Miss.
Ferris did not come pitch in the pros in 2022, but he made his pro debut in Low-A with Myrtle Beach this season, pitching 18 times, tossing 56 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, a 13.9% walk rate, and a 32.5% strikeout rate. Ferris struggles significantly with command and control right now, but his mid-90s fastball mixes with a plus curve and slider along with an average change to give him a very impressive repertoire.
The Dodgers have a reputation of helping guys with rough deliveries find their role and excel at it. Ferris was able to limit contact despite his struggles with command. He's a legit top-100 prospect, though until he shows the ability to show control to last as a starter, dynasty owners would be wise to view him as a high-variance player.
Zyhir Hope - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Analysis
The second player acquired by the Dodgers is outfield prospect Zyhir Hope, a 2023 11th-round draftee out of high school in Virginia. The Cubs liked Hope well enough that they gave him a $400,000 bonus to sign, nearly triple what a draft pick in the 11th-20th rounds is slotted to receive.
Hope is 6 feet tall and listed at 193 pounds. He's absolutely extremely athletic, with power and speed along with impressive feel early on in his minor league career that led to a .286/.419/.543 line in the complex league over 11 games, with three home runs and three stolen bases. Hope also posted an 18.6% walk rate and 30.2% strikeout rate over 43 plate appearances.
The lefty-swinging outfielder interestingly resembles a player who finished third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting this year for the Dodgers, James Outman. Hope is an elite runner, posting one of the top five 60-yard dash times among 2023 draftees, and he's shown well in center field but has an above-average arm that would work in right field as well.
There's plenty to like about the fit in the Dodgers system, though Hope will likely be a slow-burn player that takes time to develop. He's an excellent guy to target late in first-year player drafts this winter in a deep league where you can let him develop. In smaller leagues, Hope is a guy to put on a watch list because he very well could jump quickly onto the national prospect consciousness at some point when his natural athleticism translates into viable on-field talent in full-season ball.
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