Misery In Miami: How Tua's Injury Affects Miami Dolphins Fantasy Outlook

September 16, 2024

Tua Tagovailoa's concussion spells major problems for some Dolphins players, but it's not all bad news. John Johnson dives in to the repercussions of Tagovailoa's upcoming absence for the Miami Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a major concussion in their loss against the Bills on Thursday, and there's no doubt he will miss time. This shakes up the fantasy outlook massively for the Miami Dolphins, who have multiple star players that will be greatly affected.

Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane will face new challenges without their QB1, and opposing defenses will change their strategies to adapt to backup QB Skylar Thompson. It's almost always bad when a team loses their starting QB.

All managers of Dolphins players in fantasy are nervous about what the next few games hold. Some may even consider benching some of their players. There is one player who could end up being just fine though. Let's dive into what Tagovailoa's injury means for the Dolphins in fantasy.

How Much Time Will Tua Tagovailoa Miss?

This we don't know. This is Tagovailoa's third recorded concussion, and there are serious concerns about his ability to return any time soon. Tagovailoa needs to focus on his health first, and will have to be cleared by an independent neurologist with the knowledge that this is his fourth major concussion in five seasons - Tagovailoa was also concussed in at Alabama during the 2019 college football season.

Tua Tagovailoa is walking back to the locker room after taking a hit to the head

Something major to monitor given his concussion injury pic.twitter.com/JemPkzYtIM

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 13, 2024

Given the high-profile nature of Tagovailoa's head injuries, it's unlikely that he's cleared to return soon. Fantasy managers should expect a minimum of four games but be prepared for the possibility he misses the rest of the 2024 regular season.

How Will Miami's New Quarterback Fare?

Nowhere near as good as Tagovailoa. Dolphins 2nd string quarterback and new starter Skylar Thompson was a 7th-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He's only started two games in his NFL career, and he has just a 57.1& completion rate with 1 passing TD and 3 INTs. His career passer rating is 63.5.

bad interception from skylar thompson pic.twitter.com/h8crjuSItE

— josh houtz (@houtz) August 26, 2023

Thompson is highly inexperienced and wasn't a premier NFL QB prospect coming out of college.  Meanwhile, Tagovailoa, a former 5th overall draft pick, has a 66.8% completion rate with 83 passing TDs and 40 INTs, with a fantastic passer rating of 96.4. Thompson is a huge downgrade.

How Will Tyreek Hill's Fantasy Outlook Change? 

It's about to get a lot worse for Hill. Tagovailoa isn't seen as an elite NFL QB, but he is absolutely a huge part of Hill's incredible success. Hill is a solid bet to make the Hall of Fame, and an elite NFL receiver, but no amount of talent can overcome terrible quarterback play.

Hate to do this but ...

Tyreek Hill averages is Skylar Thompson's 3 full games in 2022:

9.0 targets
5.3 catches
46.3 yards
0 TDs

And WR Jaylen Waddle:

5.3 targets
3.7 catches
37.0 yards
0 TDs

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 13, 2024

Hill did not record a touchdown during Thompson's starts in 2022, and there's little reason to believe touchdowns will become much easier to come by in 2024. Hill could regress to WR2 numbers for the length of Thompson's starts this year, and that's alarming for managers who invested a top-5 pick in him.

While Hill should still make nice plays, the vertical element of the offense could be almost completely eliminated, and Thompson will probably struggle to sustain drives, creating even fewer opportunities for Hill. Hill is likely to be a midrange to low-end WR2 with Thompson under center.

He could always have his boom games, but it'll be tough sledding, and bust games are nearly inevitable.

How Will Jaylen Waddle's Fantasy Outlook Change? 

It could become incredibly bleak. Waddle is already coming off a disappointing 2023 that saw him finish as the WR34 in PPR, plummeting 26 spots down from his WR8 finish in 2022. Waddle scored 16.2 and 8.5 PPR points in his first two games of 2024.

His fantasy totals for the rest of the season will likely look a lot closer to his Week 2 numbers. Waddle averaged just 3.7 catches for 37.0 yards per game in 2022 under Thompson. Those are barely startable numbers, and outside of deeper leagues he was best left on the bench.

Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle for a Touchdown 🤩🔥 pic.twitter.com/A0QzbDbPNh

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) December 17, 2023

Plays like this are a thing of the past without Tagovailoa on the field. At best, they will become exceedingly rare.

How Will Raheem Mostert's Fantasy Outlook Change?

There's more bad news for the Dolphins' situation. With Tagovailoa out of the lineup, the threat of the deep pass is almost eliminated. That means defenses will happily stack the box and play the run. Mostert isn't likely to be used a ton as a receiver in 2024, so he could bear the brunt of new defensive attention.

Raheem Mostert (@RMos_8Ball) was a BLUR on Sunday Night 💨

(by @FastTwitchDrink) pic.twitter.com/d3IavQACU4

— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2023

Mostert is already 32 years old, likely had his clear RB1 role usurped by Achane, and doesn't have the receiving upside to salvage his scoring in PPR. Plays like this will, again, be a relic of the past, as defenses will likely stack the box to take away as much of the interior run game as possible.

Mostert had just six carries for nine yards (1.5 yards per carry) in Week 1 against the Jaguars, and that was with Tagovailoa playing the full game. Mostert's value plummets. With consideration to the injury he's working his way back from, he could be a low-end RB3 or worse.

How Will De'Von Achane's Fantasy Outlook Change?

If there's any silver lining for fantasy managers who own Dolphins players, it's seen only by Achane owners. Achane has been the engine of Miami's offense in the 2024 season, handling a huge workload and putting up stellar numbers. Achane is perfect for the short passing game as well.

De'von Achane ties the game for the Dolphis!
What a great block by Alec Ingold. pic.twitter.com/ay8V5KN7t3

— The GOAT 🐐 (@TheG0ATPlays) September 13, 2024

Achane has been dynamite as a pass catcher, running routes from the backfield and receiver position and catching checkdowns while consistently moving the ball down the field. Achane has carried the offense on his back and had more receiving yards than Waddle and Hill combined in Week 2.

De'Von Achane high points the ball after running a Wheel route thru the B-gap

Not many RBs can make that look as fluid as Achane did pic.twitter.com/Iu40nMW1uM

— Cole Topham (@crtopham_) September 13, 2024

Achane has looked like the WR3 of this team, and that means he'll be matched up with linebackers and lower-tier defensive players when he runs his routes. He could see massive target volume with Thompson under center. Fantasy managers in PPR leagues may not see a dip in Achane's scoring at all.

De'Von Achane high points the ball after running a Wheel route thru the B-gap

Not many RBs can make that look as fluid as Achane did pic.twitter.com/Iu40nMW1uM

— Cole Topham (@crtopham_) September 13, 2024

Achane is a revelation for the Dolphins' offense and could be the only player keeping them competitive for the time Tagovailoa misses.

What Should I Do With My Dolphins Players? 

The truth is there's not much you can do. You're unlikely to get much value trading away Hill, Waddle or Mostert, as most managers are rightfully apprehensive about their potential in an offense without Tagovailoa. Hill likely is talented enough to stay in starting lineups, but Waddle could end up on benches.

Mostert might not be a factor at all. The best thing you can do is pray for Tagovailoa to recover quickly and return to play soon, but that's not likely given his history of brain injuries. There's no telling how cautious the Dolphins will be with him.

If you own Achane, though, keep him in your starting lineups. He could end up seeing ~10 targets a game, and his talent gives him legendary upside no matter who's in the backfield. Be happy if he's the Miami player you drafted this year.

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