March Madness Bubble Report for Monday, March 8

March 8, 2021

Nick Federline's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/8/21. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 14, 2021.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

Michigan State

Like clockwork, Tom Izzo finds his Michigan State Spartans surging at the right time, and now back in the bubble conversation. A huge Sunday victory over in-state rival Michigan, alongside February victories over Illinois and Ohio State has placed the Spartans squarely on the bubble entering the Big Ten tournament. The problem, however, is a low NET ranking (72nd after Saturday's games), and damaging losses to Northwestern, Minnesota, and a 30-point beatdown by Rutgers.

Junior guard Aaron Henry has grown his game year-over-year to finally being the lead dog in East Lansing. Sophomore forward Joey Hauser, a Marquette transfer, has not quite had the impact that Coach Izzo may have hoped, but is still chipping in 9.9 points per game and 5.9 rebounds per game. Rocket Watts was electric off-the-bench, with 21 points in the upset of the Wolverines. To earn their spot in the bracket, Michigan State will need a few Big Ten Tournament game wins, starting with a Thursday morning tilt with projected #10 seed Maryland.

Status: Stock up (Projected First Four Out)

Saint Louis

A Saturday loss in the Atlantic-10 tournament semifinals to Saint Bonaventure could have put the final nail in the Billikens' coffin. While currently still in my projected field below, Saint Louis sits on the precipice, and at risk of teams jumping them from below. Coach Travis Ford's team will keep a close eye on potential bid thieves from the Mountain West, and other multiple-bid leagues. Additionally, teams that are still alive (see Michigan State above) have current opportunities to improve their resumes, while all Saint Louis can do is sit and wait.

With four key seniors leading the way, Saint Louis would be an experienced threat for a potential #5 or #6-seed opponent. Senior guard Jordan Goodwin is an electric 6-foot-3 fireball, averaging a double-double (14.5 ppg and 10.3 rpg). Senior Javonte Perkins, meanwhile, is a native Missourian sharpshooter that's poured in 17.0 points per game. No matter where the Billikens end up, there is a very real chance that next year's roster will lose four starting seniors and have a large rebuilding project on their hands.

Status: Bubble position is perilous, but currently projected in the field (Projected #11 seed)

Rutgers

Coach Steve Pikiell's team was the talk of the town in the early-going, with a 6-0 start, and reaching a high ranking of #11 back in December. That was followed by an untimely 1-6 stretch. The dips and highs have continued, with losses in four of their last six games. The Scarlet Knights enter the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday as the #7 seed, with an opening date with Indiana.

Entering the tournament with such little steam is an immediate pressing need for Coach Pikiell to fix. Junior guard Ron Harper, the son of former NBA point guard Ron Harper of the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers' championship team, leads the way with 15.3 points per game, and a strong 5.9 rebounds from the guard position. Top-100 recruit Cliff Omoruyi, a 6-foot-11 center from Nigeria by way of Roselle Catholic High School sitting a mere 16 miles down the Garden State Parkway from Piscataway, has proven a valuable rebounder and rim protector off the pine who should become a key cog going forward.

Status: Stock down (Projected #9 seed)

Boise State

Coach Leon Rice's team opened the year with a 13-1 record and garnering Top 25 poll votes. Since that moment in late January, the Broncos have faltered a bit, with six losses in February and March. A recent 3-game slide, which was capped by a loss last Tuesday to Fresno State, has dropped their bracket position into uncomfortable territory.

Senior point forward Derrick Alston, a third-year starter, has shown his value night-after-night to the tune of 17.5 points per game, and a strong closer down the stretch with an 86.3% free throw shooting percentage. The Broncos will open the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Thursday against Nevada. A win over the Wolfpack would set up a likely semifinal match with San Diego State, where a win would go a far way towards shoring up their position in the field.

Status: Stock down (Projected #10 seed)

Drake

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Drake Bulldogs are yet another example of a team hitting a strong start, only to slip up a bit towards the end of the year. An 18-0 start that went well into February attracted national attention. Losses to Valparaiso, Bradley, and Loyola (twice) hurt, but don't completely ruin the otherwise stellar resume. Coach Darian DeVries' team has paired a strong offense (77.9 points per game/43rd in the nation), with a strong defense (64.3 points per game allowed/40th in the nation).

The loss to Loyola in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship was expected, with the Bulldogs placed as 8.5-point underdogs, and having played without two starters in ShanQuan Hemphill and Roman Penn. Drake was overmatched from start-to-finish in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship, and will now sit anxiously to learn their final result. Drake will be rooting against potential bid thieves, and hoping that the volume of victories outweigh Kansas State being the best nonconference victory on the docket.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected #12 seed/Last Four Out)

Projected Bracket

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be Louisville, Drake, Xavier and Arizona. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Colorado State, Michigan State, Utah State, and Seton Hall. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps.

* - indicates pending NCAA appeal

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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