RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! Another four-game slate to break down with some big favorites and some unappealing underdogs. This article will be more straightforward than most but still has a chance to be a fun one. Yesterday, @nolanroth nailed it with his recommendation of JDG/KDF so hope you tailed! We look to tomorrow's slate where LSB is again using their whole challenger squad and has to face the best team in the world in T1. TES looks to move up to second place tomorrow, but teams below them still have games to play if they win. GEN faces off against KT in the last match of the split for both these teams. Lastly, WBG is up against IG, as TheShy faces his old organization for the first team since departing. In this last match, KE will be substituting for Lucas on the IG side. Let's get right into which spots I'm targeting tomorrow.
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we SHOULD GET LCK lineups before the 4:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Friday, March 18th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: LSB(+926) vs. T1(-1618)
We most likely should be getting starting lineups before lock for this match, so set an alarm about 15 minutes before lock if you want to be certain. The T1 starters look to be healthy and starting again unless we get a surprise Covid case within the T1 org, and the LSB team should be running out their same roster as the last match, which features all five Challenger players. The odds tell the story here, as this may be the most lopsided match of the LCK this split, or even ever.
The question here is will T1 smack LSB around so badly that they won't be able to pay off their prices? T1 is the second most expensive stack on the slate behind TES, so it's easier to get to them in full stacks. They are still pretty expensive however and probably need to be paired with an underdog or maybe WBG with a jungle captain. LSB was bloody in their loss to KT last time out, giving up 37 kills in their sweep loss, and gave up 38 kills in their sweep loss to BRO the match prior. T1 showed in their last match vs BRO's Challenger squad that they are willing to run up the kill count as well. LSB's challenger squad seems to be unafraid of getting scrappy and team fighting when not necessary. This sets up as a prime spot for T1 to smash in two games here, and should be a cash priority and will be a GPP play for me as well. The ownership may be there but for good reason. Faker was actually pretty uninvolved in their last series, so getting to him in the Captain spot could provide some serious leverage in giant field contests.
Top T1 plays: Gumayusi, Oner, Keria, Faker, Zeus(load up on the Telecom squad)
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6:00 AM: GEN (-349) vs. KT (+269)
For this LCK match, we should see Doran/Peanut/Chovy/Ruler/Lehends for GEN and Rascal/Cuzz/Vicla/Aiming/Life for KT. This match means little for GEN in the sense that GEN has already locked up second place, but the stakes are higher for KT. This is the last match for both teams this split, and KT is currently tied with BRO(7-10) for the last playoff spot, and both have 1 more match remaining. KT has unfortunately drawn GEN in their last match, but BRO has to face off against the in-form DK for their last match. That is if BRO has a healthy amount of players to participate as they just had to forfeit due to them not having enough. Assuming both KT and BRO lose their series, they would have the same series record, but then the tiebreaker I believe would be head to head, in which they split, so the next tiebreaker would be a higher game-winning percentage I believe. This means if KT can steal a game off of GEN tomorrow, and BRO gets swept by DK, which is the likely outcome, then KT would make it into the playoffs as the final sixth seed is my understanding. KT did sweep GEN earlier in the split, and if anything they look better with Vicla in the lineup than when they first faced GEN and swept with Aria in the mid lane.
This match should be interesting, as KT has definitely improved with Vicla entering the starting lineup. KT has seen an improvement in its EGR(early game rating) but is still slightly behind GEN in EGR, MLR, GSPD%, GD@15, FB%, and vision numbers. GEN is just a different beast similar to T1. GEN honestly has the stronger players in every role but has been experimenting with different drafts recently. Chovy is back and is still the primary carry of this team, so Vicla will have his work cut out for him. Peanut has been in good form as well, so the mid/jungle duo for GEN will be looking to get ahead early, along with Doran, who faces off against his former team. It seems that Aiming and Life, up against his old teammate in Ruler, will once again be the primary focus for KT if they want to win this series. There have been times where GEN just lets Ruler and Lehends farm through the laning phase and focus on the top side of the map. This is the avenue needed for KT to find success, and the only angle I can find myself buying is that since GEN has already locked up second place, they will experiment with new champions/new compositions that KT can perhaps take advantage of. I see this game as a dog or pass situation, and KT would be my main focus from this match but mainly in small stacks of Aiming and Rascal, with some Vicla in there too.
GEN may shape up to be a chalky favorite considering their prices, so in GPPs KT is a solid look but again mainly for small stacks, with some full stacks in case KT can pull off an upset sweep, which is a tall order even against a GEN that may be trying out new concepts tomorrow. If this were a mid-season matchup I would play GEN 90 times out of 100, but considering the circumstances with GEN not being able to move up or down in the standings, I truly think they may try some new ideas for playoffs that could result in some bloody and sloppy matches. There is definitely some added motivation for Rascal and Life facing off against their old team as well. GEN is a scary fade but it's definitely a leverage spot on tomorrow's slate with not many appealing underdogs and expensive pricing all around that may force people onto full stacks of GEN with small stacks of WBG.
Top KT plays: Aiming, Rascal, Vicla, Life
LPL Matches
5:00 AM: LGD (+473) vs. TES (-679)
We head over to the LPL where TES faces off against the playoff eliminated LGD. TES has been surging ever since Wayward entered the starting lineup, 8-2 series record since, as well as Tian finding comfort in this meta revolving around Hecarim and Xin Zhao but still finding his most success on Viego if the opposition gives it to him. LGD is a bloody team in losses and is playing spoiler tomorrow so I don't expect their playstyle to change. These odds do seem slightly heavy but TES has found their groove, barring their recent loss to IG. TES can't afford to lose to bottom-tier teams as they are looking to climb up the playoff seeding ranks, and as the most expensive stack on the slate, their ownership may actually be suppressed considering T1 and GEN are also public-favored teams that can score well in DFS.
I prefer TES over T1 in GPPs but will have similar exposure to both. I do prefer T1 in cash as I wouldn't be surprised if TES drops a game here, but similar to their last series vs AL, LGD is a very volatile team that gives up kills in bunches and isn't afraid to scrap. LGD plays a very aggressive style similar to AL that results in some crazy kill games that allow the opposition to reach their ceilings more often than not. With TES looking to climb up the standings and maximize their game-winning percentage by looking to sweep teams, I see them bringing a fully focused and concentrated effort tomorrow. I'm definitely not comfortable getting to LGD even in GPPs, so I will be prioritizing Jackeylove in the Captain slot tomorrow, followed by Knight. These two are near always the top two scores on this team, and I'm looking to pair them with Mark and Wayward tomorrow, fading Tian mostly after his highest-scoring outing of the split last slate. Tian is definitely still in play but with jungle captains looking to be chalky tomorrow, I'm looking to get to more ADC and MID captains on this slate. TES smash hopefully and look to push the pace against a greatly inferior team.
Top TES plays: Jackeylove, Knight, Mark, Wayward
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7:00 AM: IG (+228) vs. WBG (-289)
Our last matchup of the day features two struggling teams although they are still on different sides of the spectrum. IG is eliminated from playoff contention while WBG is locked in. WBG has been terrible in their recent losses, looking uncoordinated and making bone-headed decisions. IG is still Inconsistency Gaming, as we have seen flashes of good gameplay from them, like vs TES, but have seen some awful gameplay as well, like the last series vs FPX when they tilted in game two and lost while only securing one kill. It's very hard to pin this IG team down, but WBG has seemed to lose focus a lot more in the second half of the split. With the inconsistencies these teams have, and the odds listing this game as the closest of the slate, I do expect IG to draw some ownership as an underdog for value. IG will be subbing in Ke for Lucas, and Ke has played for some of the top-tier LDL teams in the past, mainly Young Miracle(JDG academy) and TES's academy team.
That being said, I do still prefer the WBG side here in a "get right" spot. I think we see a form of WBG that was working for them earlier in the split. WBG has been playing sloppy and disrespectfully by overextending for vision or potential plays that are simply coin flips. I expect a more disciplined WBG to come out tomorrow and look to take advantage through their vision numbers against a team that does like to fight for the sake of fighting. Xun was a sore spot for IG in their last series, and I expect SofM to be a key factor in this series along with Angel tomorrow. TheShy faces his old team tomorrow and will probably continue to play his hyper-aggressive style, but will be assisted by Angel and SofM, considering that I consider IG a top-side focused team. Wink and Ke will have their hands full against Huanfeng and ON, so I still expect Huanfeng to be strong later in the game as an insurance carry, but the top side of WBG will be my focus. I like WBG to sweep here and get back on track against an unmotivated IG who lost any hopes of playoffs in their last series vs FPX. I will be mainly focusing on Angel/SofM small stacks or Angel/TheShy small stacks, as I think WBG will be more reserved in this series and not necessarily break the slate with kills, and is probably my favorite TEAM slot play tomorrow besides T1. IG is in play for large field contests as WBG has been giving up kills in losses recently, but I really see this as a get-right spot for WBG and won't be getting to any IG.
Top WBG plays: Angel, Sofm, Theshy, TEAM, Huanfeng
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on TES, T1, and KT tomorrow. WBG is also a full-stack potentially, but I think they will play more reserved tomorrow to get back on track and play how they were finding success earlier in the split with a slower more methodical playstyle. WBG team and KT team are solid TEAM value for me tomorrow, along with KT for small stack value as a priority for me over WBG, while loading up on TES and T1 full stacks. Fading GEN as I think they will be experimenting with new champions/drafts to prepare for playoffs and KT takes advantage and has been playing well with Vicla.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are TES/KT and T1/KT. KT and WBG full stacks are also in play for me but in small amounts, will be prioritizing TES and T1 full stacks.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like T1 with WBG, probably need to get to jungle captain if mid doesn't fit. TES is super pricey which is why I prefer TES in GPPs.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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