Lions vs. Chiefs Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs

September 5, 2023

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Lions and Chiefs on Thursday Night game in Week 1 (2023). Ryan Kirksey provides detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

We know that the eye-gouging matchups are coming for Thursday Night Football, but for one glorious NFL opening night, we are in for a treat. The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the upstart Detroit Lions in a matchup of two of the league's top projected offenses. Let's remember and cherish this beautiful pairing when Week 9 comes and we get Titans vs. Steelers and a dozen throws out of bounds by Ryan Tannehill.

This matchup of the borderline-dynasty Chiefs and the NFC contender Lions features fantasy options all over the field on both sides of the ball. Let's just hope that it's a better time than the opening night game where the NFC North was involved. The Packers won that barn-burner 10-3 over the Bears that night. 

I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this Thursday Night matchup that kicks off the 2023 season.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:20 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Travis Kelce (TE, KC) - Knee - OUT
• Richie James (WR, KC) - Knee - Questionable
• Jameson Williams (WR, DET) - Suspension - Out

The Chiefs-Lions Matchup

UPDATE: Travis Kelce has been ruled out of Thursday night's matchup with the Lions. Read below for impact on Noah Gray.

This game is quite the banger to start the 2023 regular season. We have the team who was first (Kansas City) and eighth (Detroit) in passing yards per game in 2022 slugging it out on opening night. Both teams were also top-six in yards per pass attempt last season, so we should be prepared to see some gun-slinging as the Chiefs open up their 2022 title defense.

On Tuesday night, this game and its projections were flipped on its head when it was reported that Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice and may not be available for the matchup to start the season.  On Wednesday, it was officially declared a bone bruise and not a long-term injury. Kelce is officially listed as Questionable for the Thursday night game. If Kelce does sit, it not only impacts the over/under of this game but also projections for every other Chiefs skill player on offense. Patrick Mahomes would get a slight downgrade while players like Skyy Moore, Noah Gray, and Kadarius Toney could all potentially see an increase in targets

Detroit was the hotness last year after appearing on Hard Knocks and then knocking hard on the door of the playoffs before eventually falling short. At least we now have an all-time coaching legend in Dan Campbell. This season, with Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay and the Minnesota defense looking more "Vulnerable than Viking," the NFC North is up for the taking. The Lions hope to take that first step on Thursday night.

At 54.5 implied points, this game has the highest total on the entire weekend by three points over the next closest game. The prognosticators and pundits all predict a shootout, and three of the last four NFL Kickoff games have totaled at least 54 points. The real question for the total and for the line (KC -6.5) is can the Lions hang all night on the road and in an extremely hostile environment? In the end, I think Detroit just doesn't do enough in Kansas City to cover the spread or hit the over on the total.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Whether you're in a 10-team standard league, a 16-team Superflex, or anything in between, if you drafted Patrick Mahomes, he is in your lineup as long as he can pick up a football. The last time Patrick Mahomes played an opening night game (2020), he completed 75% of his passes and threw for three scores.

Last year, the Lions allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and allowed the highest opposing quarterback average depth of target (DADOT). Detroit fancies themselves as an up-and-coming defense, but they will need to improve on a league-worst 11.8 opponent's yards per completion.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Kelce, as mentioned above, is now in danger of missing this contest, but he is an elite play if he does suit up. Only the Arizona Cardinals (12) allowed more receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Detroit Lions did last season (11). You know you're starting Travis Kelce no matter what, but it's always nice to have a reminder of just what a difference-maker he is. Kelce had 40 more targets than any other tight end in the game last season and had more receiving yards than all but seven wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven he is elite at three specific things in his two short years in the NFL. First, he is elite at demanding targets. At a 32.3% target rate on his team, he ranked behind only Drake London and Tyreek Hill. Second, he has become a yards after the catch monster. St. Brown was fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch in 2022 as he excels at turning easy passes into big yards. Third, he knows every wide receiver taken in front of him in the 2021 draft and he has been going scorched earth on them ever since that day.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

Here's your fun fact for this Thursday night game that tips the scales in Jahmyr Gibbs' favor. No team allowed more running back receptions than the Chiefs did in 2022, and they allowed the fourth-most receiving yards. Gibbs, even in his first real NFL game, has an easy path to 14 carries and six targets in this game. Don't be surprised if Gibbs is second on this team in targets by the time Jameson Williams comes back. The Lions were top-12 in targets to running backs last season and that was with T.J. Hockenson playing 10 out of 17 games in Detroit.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jared Goff (QB, DET)

This game has a high enough total and plenty of shootout potential, so I won't blame you for starting Jared Goff even if he is your only quarterback option or you are already playing the QB streaming game. Goff improved as the season went along in 2022. In games 1-10, he averaged 244 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. That improved to 285 yards and two passing touchdowns per game in his last seven. Now, he adds an elite pass-catching back to his arsenal.

If you're in a 10- or 12-team league, chances are you have a better talent at quarterback on your roster. But I can guarantee you won't have a better game environment and shootout potential than this matchup on Thursday night.

Noah Gray (TE, KC)

Travis Kelce will miss Thursday night, so Noah Gray immediately becomes a player who needs to be picked up off of waivers and considered in your starting lineup for Week 1. I would start Gray over other tight ends such as Dalton Schultz, Greg Dulcich, and Cole Kmet. I would have Gray right alongside a player like David Njoku as a borderline top-10 option with Kelce missing.

The Chiefs threw to the tight end position 201 times last season, second in the NFL to Baltimore in 2022. Kelce, however, out-targeted Mark Andrews by almost 40 last year, and Gray looks to pick up all the tight end targets for this game. The Lions allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position last season. If you punted tight end in your draft, this is likely the best spot a waiver wire pickup will have at the position.

Skyy Moore (WR, KC)

If Skyy Moore sticks in the slot this season (as he was playing in the preseason), we may have to change our evaluation of him and move him up the ranks. Slot receivers have been very good friends to Patrick Mahomes (see JuJu Smith-Schuster last year) and they get the most Mahomes targets after Travis Kelce.

Skyy Moore, the Chiefs projected starting slot receiver, has:

* Started both preseason games with the first-team offense

* Lined up in the slot on 16-of-25 snaps

Among active QBs since 2021, Mahomes leads all in slot targets to his WRs (309, 9.1 per game) per @PFF.

— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) August 21, 2023

Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC)

It was a tale of two halves for both rookie Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon last season. In Weeks 1-10, Pacheco was RB60 in fantasy points per game (3.9) while McKinnon was RB45 with 5.8 half-PPR points per game. From Week 12 to the end of the season, both Pacheco (11.9 points per game) and McKinnon (16.5) were top-20 running backs. They are often complementary and not necessarily game-script-dependent for production.

The Lions and their strong pressure rate and imposing front line do cause problems for opposing rushers. They allowed only 16.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last year. It's very likely that one of these guys will get a touchdown on Thursday night, but predicting which one it will be can often be a fool's errand.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, KC)

At various points throughout 2023, both Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are going to have mega-spike weeks. Just how are we supposed to know when they are coming? Without JuJu Smith-Schuster around, it's hard to tell who Patrick Mahomes prefers to throw to if Travis Kelce is not an option. Removing Kelce and Smith-Schuster from the equation, five different receivers had between 171 and 687 receiving yards last year. None had more than four touchdowns.

If I have to choose one of these guys to fill out my roster, it's going to be MVS. He does not have the injury concern Toney is dealing with plus Detroit's league-worst opponents' yards per completion tips the scales in his favor.

Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)

Reports out of training camp were glowing for Sam LaPorta and he may fill the T.J. Hockenson-sized hole for the tight end position sooner rather than later for Detroit. But the truth is tight ends don't typically perform well right away as rookies. Kyle Pitts is the only rookie since 2017 to amass at least 725 receiving yards in a season. The Chiefs were top-10 in the fewest receptions allowed to tight ends in 2022.

Marvin Jones, Jr., Kalif Raymond, and Josh Reynolds (WR, DET)

All three WRs are out of your fantasy lineups and are merely window-dressing pieces to make the more featured parts of the offense look good. Perhaps Jameson Williams can make a big impact when he returns in Week 7. But for now, these Detroit wide receivers belong on the waiver wire. 

Kirksey’s Picks

Thursday Night season record:

Spread (0-0), Over/Under (0-0) -  It can only go downhill from here!

At 24 implied points for the Lions on Thursday, we have to consider how hard that number will be to hit on the road and in the first game of the season. The good news? Detroit hit at least 24 points in 11 of 17 games last season. The bad news? The Lions scored over 33 points per game at home, but only 19.4 points per game on the road. I just don't think they will be firing on all offensive cylinders to start the year with at least four touchdowns.

Chiefs -6.5, Under 54.5

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