First Base (1B) Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers: Later-Round Values (2025)

March 3, 2025

RotoBaller's first base fantasy baseball draft sleepers for the later rounds of 2025 drafts. These are sneaky fantasy baseball 1B value picks with upside.

Welcome back to our first base fantasy baseball draft sleepers and later-round upside value picks for 2025. We are here to identify and help fantasy managers find more fantasy baseball draft sleepers. Today, we focus on the first base position, which has a sizable gap in tiers once the top four are off the draft board. If you cannot land any of the elite first basemen or miss out on one of the fallback options, such as Christian Walker, there are some names with intriguing upside.

Below are some late-round first basemen for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority late-round draft target? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2025 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2025 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2025 Draft Kit.

Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

Earlier in the offseason, the Houston Astros acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes, among other pieces, from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Kyle Tucker. Last season, Paredes struggled as he posted a .238/.346/.393 line with just 19 home runs. Across his first 101 games in Tampa Bay, Paredes was on track to enjoy another strong season as he went deep 16 times with a .435 SLG. However, when he moved to the Northside of Chicago at the deadline, the 25-year-old hit just three long balls with a .307 SLG across 52 contests.

Isaac Paredes just hit a homer. Pull side of course. pic.twitter.com/NszdHQfRUS

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) February 28, 2025

However, moving to Daikin Park in Houston should help Paredes' output significantly. This park is home to the famous Crawford Boxes, which are just 315 feet away from home plate alongside left field, which is well suited for Paredes' hitting profile due to his 52% pull rate. According to Statcast, Paredes would have gone deep 26 times if he played his entire 2024 season in Houston. In 2023, Paredes launched 31 home runs playing the entire campaign in Tampa Bay, which is another favorable park for pull hitters.

In addition to the expected power surge, Paredes also boasted a strong 11.9% walk rate and 16.4% K rate last season, which placed him in the 93rd and 81st percentile among qualified hitters. This gives him a substantial boost in points leagues. On the NFBC, Paredes has seen his ADP increase significantly since this trade and currently sits with a 207.45 ADP since the new year, making him a great target if you choose to avoid a top option at the hot corner.

-- Andy Smith - RotoBaller

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand entered the 2024 season with the prospect of being a 30-homer hitter. Encarnacion-Strand hit 13 homers in 63 games for the Reds in 2023, following his promotion from the Minors. Prior to the call-up, he had hit 20 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. Given Cincinnati's hitter-friendly ballpark, everything pointed towards Encarnacion-Strand being a premium home run provider for fantasy managers.

Unfortunately, a wrist injury limited him to 29 games last year, and we failed to see what Encarnacion-Strand could do over a full season. This year, the Reds slugger is going later in drafts and could be a cheap power option in your drafts. After appearing in the Arizona Fall League, it seems like Encarnacion-Strand will be healthy heading into Spring. While the Reds do have a congested batting lineup, if Encarnacion-Strand does display his power and stays healthy, he should be an everyday player.

Given he is generally available after pick-200 (NFBC ADP 233) in drafts, fantasy managers seem concerned about playing time and health. If Encarnacion-Strand allays those fears with a healthy and productive spring, he will be an excellent power source available to fantasy managers in the later rounds of drafts.

-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle could be poised for a bounce back in the power department with the modifications to Camden Yards. Over the past two seasons, the Orioles pushed back their left-field wall, hindering power production. However, the team decided to bring the left-field wall back in for the 2025 season, which should bode well for a right-handed power bat like Mountcastle. Last season, the 27-year-old hit just 13 home runs with a .271/.308/.425 line.

Ryan Mountcastle - 7/6/24 pic.twitter.com/4TZw5bBX0v

— Os HR A Day (@OsHRADay) January 17, 2025

However, he still generated impressive power metrics under the hood, suggesting he should see positive regression in 2025. Last summer, he generated a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a 36.2% LA sweet spot, which were both well above the average marks. However, he lowered his pull and fly-ball rate to career lows, possibly due to trying to combat the ballpark modifications. Now, with the fences returned to a more favorable position, Mountcastle could see his power production soar if he can return to the 33% and 32% flyball rates he posted during the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.

During those seasons, Mountcastle went deep 33 and 22 times and tallied over 80 RBI in each season, respectively. Seeing that he continued to hit the ball hard despite the poor hitting environment is an encouraging sign for his fantasy stock. However, he carries minimal risk in drafts going off as the No. 19 first baseman and at pick 249.6 on NFBC drafts as he is being drafted at his floor. Fantasy managers should select him confidently in all formats as a corner infielder with high power and RBI upside.

-- Andy Smith - RotoBaller

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia has prodigious power and he put it on full display in 2024, blasting 25 home runs on the back of a 98th-percentile barrel rate of 17.3%. Combined with a HardHit% of 50.2% and an average EV of 92.1 mph, both of which are above the 90th percentile, fantasy managers can expect more of the same in 2025. However, with the big power comes big swing-and-miss, as the former first-rounder notched an unsightly 32.1% K% (fourth percentile) that led to a .218 batting average.

On the other hand, the switch-hitter drew a walk 11.8% of the time last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile, but that number tells only half the story. Before the All-Star break, Toglia walked at just a 7.8% clip, but after, he drew free passes at a 14.7% rate – fifth-best in baseball during that timeframe (min. 200 PA).

Still, ATC projections see the 26-year-old making only a modest BA improvement to .228 in 2025. With as much power as he provides, Toglia should post better counting stats to accompany it, which is why RotoBaller ranks the UCLA product at 160 overall, 17 spots above his NFBC ADP of 177.

-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller

Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays infielder Jonathan Aranda is building buzz going into 2025 after February reports of regular designated hitter work surfaced. The 26-year-old could also be a lefty-swinging platoon bat at first base alongside Yandy Diaz. Aranda has seen injuries and a shuffle-happy Tampa infield rob him of consistent chances thus far, but has shown glimpses of greatness. He delivered at least a .318 batting average in three straight minor-league campaigns of 95 games or more between 2021-23, with 25 home runs in 434 plate appearances at Triple-A in '23.

Jonathan Aranda returned to the Rays in Sept and hit 5 HR in his final 62 PA while slashing .273/.339/.582.
While a small sample, Aranda has a strong track record of pulling fly balls and had an avg EV on pulled FBs of 99.6 mph last season. He could feast in Steinbrenner Field. https://t.co/jTJRakLIXb pic.twitter.com/hbktDeB1ji

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) February 3, 2025

But the success wasn't translating to the majors, including a .213/.288/.319 slash line over 52 PAs in late spring last season before an oblique injury sidelined him (he'd fractured a finger in March). However, he crushed five home runs and five doubles in 91 PAs after returning. A small sample, but his overall 16.5 percent barrel rate ranked sixth in MLB out of those with over 90 batted-ball events. If he's figured it out against major-league pitching as a LHB who calls a mirror of Yankee Stadium home then sneaky 25-homer pop is in play.

But we must note that the Rays were awarded a fourth option year for him and are notorious for toying with depth. ATC only projects 15 HRs and a .251 average across 105 games for now. Eloy Jimenez may also make the team and siphon DH reps. But with an average ADP of 356, Aranda's upside is worth a late pick despite any playing time or consistency concerns.

-- Nick Mariano - RotoBaller

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis