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We're far enough into the season that we can dive into expected stats with some sense of reliability. Let's begin with everyone's favorite - xwOBA!
Its given name is expected weighted on-base average and what it represents is the quality of each at-bat by a hitter. Statcast uses a combination of exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed to determine how well each batter is performing throughout the course of the season.
As is our custom, we shall identify some players who are performing surprisingly well or poorly in this metric and evaluate the significance for the 2022 fantasy baseball season. Look for more Statcast analysis for fantasy leagues as well as Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds on RotoBaller each week!
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xwOBA Leaders
All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/16/22
Joc Pederson, San Francisco Giants
.448 xwOBA (5 of 307)
It's been a minute since we highlighted Pederson after his torrid start to the season. I want to point out his placement at fifth on the xwOBA leaderboard for a specific reason, though.
We are over a month into the 2022 season and most batters of consequence in fantasy leagues have well over 100 plate appearances under their belts. That doesn't mean a hot week or two won't skew season-long numbers. Pederson is a prime example of this. One glance at the Statcast charts and you'll see nothing but red by his name. He's above the 90th percentile in every expected stat and exit velocity-related metric.
But all of his damage came in the first weeks of the season up until he injured his groin on April 27. He avoided the IL but since then has been a different player. In May, Pederson is slashing .065/.167/.161 with one homer, four RBI, and two runs scored. Either the injury is affecting him at the plate or the couple of days off broke his rhythm.
It should be noted that his home run came last night (Sunday) and a clean MRI result means no real damage has been done physically so he could heat up again once he snaps out of this slump. Pederson has always had upper-deck power and is prone to hot streaks but he's never going to be in contention for a batting title as his .232 career average attests to. Don't be fooled by the Statcast numbers in thinking he'll have a career year at the age of 30 in a pitcher's paradise for a new home park.
J.D. Davis, New York Mets
.435 xwOBA (9 of 307)
One domino has fallen with Robinson Cano being waived by the Mets a week ago. That clears up the DH spot for Davis to platoon with Dominic Smith, albeit on the short side. It's ironic that he would be held out vs righties when he actually hits better against them than lefties for his career. Davis is also hitting far better than Smith this season, so he might just deserve a full-time lineup spot even though the numbers suggest the opposite.
Davis is only batting .204 with a homer and six RBI across 66 PA this season but his contact quality shows that he deserves better. He has earned a .267 xBA and .426 xSLG and a .387 xwOBA that is obviously among the best in the league. He's scorching the ball at an average exit velocity of 88.5, leading to a hard-hit% in the 100th percentile. You can't get better than that. Literally.
JD DAVIS DRIVES IN TWO RUNS WITH A TRIPLE! pic.twitter.com/k6hXxvLuXa
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 15, 2022
So why don't his numbers reflect this? How about an insane 72.7% ground ball rate? Davis is specializing in worm burners this season and that doesn't bode well for anyone's batting average, even if he did have good speed (he doesn't). If Davis corrects his launch angle... you guessed it - power binge! At the very least he should be hitting more line drives that fall in for base hits. He's always been strong with the bat and the introduction of the DH to the National League brings a much-needed opportunity for him to get regular at-bats. Consider him a buy-low candidate.
Yonathan Daza, Colorado Rockies
.408 xwOBA (19 of 307)
The league-wide batting average sits at .234 as of May 16. That's 10 points lower than last year and 21 points lower than it was both five and 10 years ago. Just when stolen bases were looking like the rare commodity to chase in roto leagues, a high batting average is quickly becoming hard to establish.
Enter a player like Daza, who could be considered the NL version of Luis Arraez. Daza doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of now, but among hitters with at least 50 PA, he is second in the majors behind only Taylor Ward with a .383 AVG. This is no fluke either. Daza hit .282 last season with the Rockies after hitting .364 at Triple-A in 2019, .306 at Double-A in 2018, and .341 at Single-A in 2017.
ATC Projections gave Daza a .277 AVG this season, which doesn't seem impressive except that it placed him top-40 in the majors, same as Bryce Harper and higher than Manny Machado. Daza will absolutely not hit for power and he doesn't have the knack for stealing bases despite a sprint speed in the 90th percentile. He's been caught twice with no successful steals this season.
Daza won't bring a ton to the plate (literally) but those in deep-enough leagues who need a boost in batting average can buy into his start. He's currently splitting time with Sam Hilliard, so he's best left for leagues with daily lineups when you can insert him as needed.
xwOBA Slackers
Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
.182 xwOBA (307 of 307)
First of all, is it just me or is every single catcher doing terrible this season? Other than Tyler Stephenson, who keeps missing time with injury, and Willson Contreras, no other regular backstop is hitting over .270 and providing any semblance of power. Salvador Perez is hitting .209, J.T. Realmuto is at .243, and Yasmani Grandal is at .165. So much for grabbing an elite catcher early to secure offense at a thin position.
Kelly was considered a great discount option if you waited on the position in fantasy drafts. While Daulton Varsho was the one to target, he's really an outfielder who still qualifies at catcher. Kelly is the true starter at the position for Arizona, which we should have known was a bad combination. The D-Backs own the second-worst team batting average in the majors (.204) and rank 24th in runs scored. It's not just Kelly who is struggling but he's definitely standing out.
Kelly is slashing .105/.150/.123 with zero home runs and one RBI over 60 PA. Last week, I looked at the Swing/Take leaderboard and didn't highlight Kelly but this is a good time to mention that he ranks 298 out of 300 with a -11 run value. He's actually doing a good job laying off pitches outside the zone but isn't doing anything positive with pitches across the heart of the plate. He's hitting a lot of weak choppers on fastballs and is whiffing at anything else. Not a good combo.
Kelly will never be a high-end fantasy option even for a catcher but this year he's proving to be a complete waste of a roster spot. He'll turn things around to some extent but the inconsistencies across his MLB resume don't inspire much long-term hope.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
.253 xwOBA (288 of 307)
If Arozarena was going to have a true breakout year, this should be it. He is at the prime age of 27, has a full season of major league experience under his belt, and doesn't have to worry about playing time in any way. Rather than being the lynchpin of the Rays' lineup, Arozarena has struggled to a .227 average with just one home run. If not for the six SB, he wouldn't warrant a spot in fantasy lineups.
The issue is nothing new and has been identified by fantasy analysts since last year - he hits far too many grounders. His 49.2% GB% last year was high enough but he's taken it to another level in 2022 with a 57.6% GB%. If you're Yonathan Daza, that's not a big deal. If you're a top-50 fantasy draft pick expected to hit 25+ HR, it's a huge problem. You can't go deep regularly when you have a 10% fly ball rate.
There should certainly be some positive regression in this sense, as well as his 5.3% HR/FB so the homers will start to show up. That said, it doesn't seem as if he will ever live up to the expectations he set during his record-setting postseason power binge in 2020. If I had Arozarena on a roster, I'd wait until he heats up and then try to trade him away for a high-end asset.
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
.254 xwOBA (287 of 307)
Oh boy. At some point, we have to just feel bad for the kid. Only a pair of catchers, Robinson Chirinos and the aforementioned Carson Kelly, have a lower xBA than Kelenic. Only 20 hitters out of 307 have a lower xwOBA. His strikeout rate has increased to 37.5% this season and his exit velocity is an atrocious 84.5 MPH.
Sadly, there is no silver lining here. Kelenic just looks overmatched at the big-league level and is going backward. He'll occasionally get a hold of a fastball but his recognition of offspeed and breaking stuff is not getting any better.
It's hard to give up on a high-end prospect like Kelenic this early, but for redraft leagues, it's time to move on. Trade him away for whatever you can get.
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