March 18, 2016

Tony Peters profiles four pitchers who could be fantasy baseball sleepers in 2016 after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2015.

With so many pitchers taken down by Tommy John surgery every year, it can be hard to keep track of where they all are in their recovery. RotoBaller is here with an update on four starting pitchers to remember for draft day and into the early part of the season. These players may start the season on the DL, but those who stash them will be rewarded when they return.

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From (Elbow) Blowout to Breakout

Alex Cobb (RB SP Rank: 126)

Date of Surgery: 5/14/15 | Estimated Return: July

Alex Cobb enters Spring Training as a spectator while he continues to recover from last May's surgery. Once he returns to Tampa Bay's rotation around the All-Star Break, he is likely to be plying his trade for a strong contender at a very crucial time in the season. This means that while his pitch counts will be monitored closely, there will be no dancing around his position at the front of this rotation. He'll be thrown right into the fire.

With that knowledge, fantasy owners can pencil him in for 12-15 starts. Before the injury, Cobb came off two seasons with sub-3.00 ERAs, a feat that is far too much to ask for right away. He will certainly be more hittable as he gets back into the rigors and rhythms of pitching again, but his strong K/9 and HR/9 rates pre-surgery (8.1 and 0.6, respectively), along with a premier defense behind him, will keep his ERA south of 3.50. The only real strike against him is a shaky bullpen that will likely cost him a couple wins.

Prediction: 5 wins, 3.30 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP

Homer Bailey (RB SP Rank: 121)

Date of Surgery: 5/8/2015 | Estimated Return: May

Homer Bailey is currently targeting a May return to a Reds rotation that is completely different than the one he left: he's now the only veteran left. Considering that Alex Cobb had his surgery a week later yet isn't expected back until July, that May return date for Bailey seems mighty optimistic. With the Reds facing another losing season already, there shouldn't be any urgency pressuring him into returning early, so keep it mind that timetable could be pushed back to June or July.

With the team behind him questionable at best offensively and defensively, Bailey isn't likely to win more than a handful of games, regardless of how well he pitches. Always a bit more generous with batters than the ideal team ace, he's going to have to work a little harder than normal to keep his ERA under 4.00 this season. To provide fantasy owners with usable stats, Bailey's going to need his K/9 and BB/9 to rebound to where they were in 2013 and 2014, his most effective seasons. If those approach 8.0 and 2.3 respectively, Bailey could even beat my predictions for him.

Prediction: 4 wins, 3.80 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 1.30 WHIP

Brandon McCarthy (RB SP Rank: N/A)

Date of Surgery: 4/30/2015 | Estimated Return: July 2016

At the very start of his first season as a Dodger, Brandon McCarthy's arm blew up and forced him to have Tommy John surgery, missing the remainder of the year. This was a big blow to a team that was counting on McCarthy in the wake of his best overall season. Hopes were high that after his first 200-inning season, McCarthy had finally shed his injury-prone label, and they were quickly dashed.

Despite spending 2014 pitching for two clubs with hitter-friendly home parks, McCarthy didn't appear at all phased by the built-in disadvantage, ERA aside. He was able to raise his K/9 to 7.9 and GB% to 52.6, both career highs. Advanced ERA metrics say his 4.05 mark was inflated by half a run. If McCarthy can hold onto those gains, and his small 2015 sample say he will, there is no reason he won't have a successful comeback season. With McCarthy finally getting a chance to sink his teeth into a pitcher-friendly home park plus the added motivation from him returning during the Dodgers' likely pennant hunt, there is additional underlying upside beyond my prediction below.

Prediction: 5 wins, 3.80 ERA, 75 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP

Zack Wheeler (RB SP Rank: 90)

Date of Surgery: 3/25/2015 | Estimated Return: July

You just can't think of many things worse that could happen to a young starting pitcher than needing Tommy John surgery following his first full season. But that is exactly what happened to young Mets' phenom Zack Wheeler in 2014. As the player with the least experience on this list, Wheeler stands a larger chance of struggling when he returns. Hopefully, he devoted the proper amount of time and effort to the non-throwing aspects of pitching during his recovery, otherwise he's likely to often find himself frustrated. Fantasy owners don't want to see that anymore than you'd expect he would.

In 2014, Wheeler struggled in two key areas: walks and lefties. Though his BB/9 of 3.8 was less than the previous year's 4.1, he is still allowing too many free passes. That matter is made worse when Wheeler faces a left-hander, as they not only drew more than half of his walks given up, but also hit .256/.353/.392 and struck out fewer times.

Wheeler is going to be an ace starter sooner rather than later, but to expect him to miss more than a full season, recover from a major surgery, and make all the adjustments necessary to push his game to the next level is unrealistic. He'll be good this year, but don't overreach because of his potential past this season.

Prediction: 5 wins, 3.80 ERA, 80 strikeouts, 1.30 WHIP

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