Fantasy Football ADP Values on Yahoo - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

Mike analyzes undervalued Yahoo fantasy football ADPs and sleepers, plus overvalued fantasy football picks for Yahoo drafts. Who are bargains in 2024 drafts?

The 2024 NFL Hall of Fame Game between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans is nearly here. Many fantasy football redraft leagues will have their draft over the next few weeks. Therefore, now is the time to start preparing for your redraft leagues, whether they are home leagues with a bunch of friends or competitive leagues with a significant buy-in.

Many factors go into winning a redraft fantasy football league. However, they all boil down to two things -- finding players who are undervalued and avoiding those who are overvalued based on average draft position (ADP).

Let’s look at five overvalued and five undervalued players in the Yahoo ADP who fantasy players should avoid or target during their 2024 drafts.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players In Yahoo ADP

Tua Tagovailoa: ADP 99.8

Tagovailoa began the 2023 season on fire, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three contests. However, his production significantly declined in the second half of the year, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular-season matchups.

The veteran also struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees (per Fantasy Points Data). Tagovailoa averaged fewer fantasy points per game (15.9) than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last year.

Aaron Jones: ADP 51.6

While the veteran running back was the RB2 in the playoffs on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, fantasy players should be nervous about drafting Jones in 2024. He struggled to stay healthy during the regular season, missing six games.

More importantly, the veteran ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should draft Ty Chandler several rounds later than Jones at his ADP.

Raheem Mostert: ADP 70.5

Mostert was outstanding last season, ending the year as the RB2, averaging 16.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the veteran scored over 52% of his career touchdown total last season, leading the NFL with 21 offensive scores.

Furthermore, 51.9% of Mostert’s fantasy points were from finding the end zone. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 and had 21 offensive scores. Yet, only 35.2% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns last year. Mostert will likely see his workload diminish with the addition of Jaylen Wright and De'Von Achane’s expanding role in 2024.

De'Von Achane hype from @WingfieldNFL (top MIA beat) on a recent pod:

"My god, De'Von Achane is going to have a monster year. This might be the next Christian McCaffrey in terms of overall versatility and usage. This guy is going to be a freaking superstar."

Full quote👇 pic.twitter.com/CGCRrdSboo

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) July 6, 2024

Stefon Diggs: ADP 45.2

There are two reasons why I won’t draft Diggs anywhere near his current ADP this season. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. Furthermore, the veteran was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data).

More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% targets per route run rate from last year in Houston with Nico Collins and Tank Dell healthy. The veteran wide receiver will be the third option in the passing game for C.J. Stroud and should be a sixth-round draft pick.

Dallas Goedert: ADP 110.3

While Goedert remains a solid starting-caliber NFL tight end, fantasy players should avoid drafting him as their TE1, especially as a 10th-round pick in 12-team leagues. He averaged 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, his lowest average since his rookie year in 2018.

Goedert had three receiving touchdowns in 2023, making it the third time in the past four seasons that he had three or fewer scores. The Philadelphia Eagles’ passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving the tight end struggling to earn significant targets. More importantly, Goedert’s role on offense will decline after the team added Saquon Barkley this offseason.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players In Yahoo ADP

Jayden Daniels: ADP 115.1

Quarterbacks who can make explosive plays with their legs are worth their weight in gold, making Daniels a potential league-winner as the 14th quarterback off the board. He had 2,019 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns during his two years at LSU.

Meanwhile, Daniels is also an excellent passer, posting a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2023. The Washington Commanders have a solid set of weapons and could add Brandon Aiyuk. Furthermore, they will be chasing points for much of the upcoming season, giving Daniels plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points.

Zamir White: ADP 66.1

White was the RB8, averaging 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game during the four weeks Josh Jacobs missed with an injury last year. He had the fourth-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.06) among running backs with at least 30 attempts during those four weeks, ranking ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data).

The former Georgia star had 20 or more touches in every contest, totaling 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but one game. He will be the featured guy in the backfield this upcoming season. White is one of my must-have running backs despite having only one rushing touchdown in his young career.

Zamir White hits paydirt for #RaiderNation #LACvsLV on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/ga7O4RMwdt pic.twitter.com/IS3mppzXyP

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2023

Malik Nabers: ADP 71.8

While the New York Giants will have one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL in 2024, fantasy players should expect Nabers to be a start because of his high target share. The Giants lack any proven pass-catchers following Darren Waller’s retirement.

Meanwhile, Nabers ranked first in the rookie draft class in yards per route run (3.64) among wide receivers with at least 20 targets last season (per PFF). The former LSU star has made several highlight-reel receptions during training camp so far. Don’t be surprised if Nabers is a top-15 wide receiver as a rookie.

Chris Godwin: ADP 95.8

Fantasy players struggled with starting Godwin, as he scored 9.6 or fewer half-point PPR fantasy points in 64.7% of the games last year. Furthermore, he averaged fewer than 10 fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018. However, Godwin is primed for a bounce-back season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are moving him back into the slot in 2024. The veteran averaged 0.41 fantasy points per route run in the slot compared to 0.26 lined up outside last year (per Fantasy Points Data). There is a chance Godwin outscores Mike Evans this season despite having an ADP several rounds later.

Pat Freiermuth: ADP 131.4

While Freiermuth is coming off the worst season of his career, fantasy players should give him another shot. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense should be significantly better after upgrading their quarterback room this offseason, swapping out Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky for Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

Furthermore, Arthur Smith taking over as the team’s offensive coordinator is excellent news for Freiermuth. The Atlanta Falcons tight ends averaged a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red-zone target share in 2023. With Diontae Johnson in Carolina, Freiermuth could see the volume needed for a breakout season in the final year of his rookie contract.

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