Overvalued Infielders To Avoid In Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

2 months ago by Jamie Steed

We're well into fantasy baseball draft season. Most people who have partaken in a draft (mock or real) will have identified where they need to take their favorite players before someone deprives them of that joy. But as in all drafts, you'll never be able to get all your favorites and will need to pivot to alternatives.

While having sleepers and undervalued players on your wish list is important, it's equally key to know which players to avoid. Those who are being overvalued and ones that come with significant risk. And it's those players we're looking at here; infielders who are names to avoid in drafts.

These aren't players who should be ignored at all costs. They are players who have significant question marks, which leaves them very avoidable in drafts. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Without further ado, here are five infielders to give a wide berth to in 2024.

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Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins

NFBC ADP: 49

I'll preface this by saying that Royce Lewis is an MVP candidate. If he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, that's a huge if. A player who has one significant injury, overcomes it, and shows some signs of staying healthy is certainly worthwhile betting on. For Lewis, it's been more than one significant injury.

Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an ACL tear. That came on the back of having no 2020 minor league season. Two years of no baseball isn't ideal in any circumstance. In 2022, Lewis played a total of 46 games in Triple-A and the majors before tearing the ACL in his right knee again. Last year, Lewis also had IL stints for an oblique strain and a hamstring strain.

There's no denying his talent when healthy. Lewis hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers, 52 RBI, 36 runs, and six steals in 58 games for the Twins last year. When using a fourth-round pick on a player, it's preferable they haven't had two major surgeries on the same knee and missed another eight weeks with other injuries. All within the space of three years. The upside is a top-10 player. The downside is playing 20 games.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP: 97

Arenado has been a model of consistency for many seasons. Last year was not a vintage one for Arenado. His regression in 2023 could be down to playing through some health issues. Regardless of the cause, it was a significant drop-off from someone who had a career-high 150 wRC+ in 2022. The dysfunction within the organization likely didn't help matters. It all culminated in what was a disappointing season with the bat for Arenado.

Last year saw Arenado end the season on the IL due to back spasms. It became apparent that he had suffered back issues for much of the season. Given it was Arenado's first IL stint since 2020, health shouldn't be a concern. However, back issues for a player in their mid-30s who has missed just 72 games in the last nine years might be an indication that general wear-and-tear is catching up to Arenado.

Arenado isn't someone that should be completely disregarded. However, third base is deeper than it was last year and many intriguing options are going a few rounds after Arenado. If you need power, Max Muncy and Jake Burger can be taken ~50 picks later. If you want solid contributions across the categories, Ryan McMahon and Jeimer Candelario are going ~100 picks later. It's tough to justify Arenado's ADP given the later options.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP: 102

The Triston Casas hype train has been picking up momentum this offseason. In 2023, Casas hit .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers, 65 RBI, 66 runs, and no steals (132 games). The hype is largely down to what he did in the second half of 2023. We can see his splits between the two halves of last year and they paint an interesting picture that may offer hope of a step forward in 2024. Or one that causes reluctance in drafting him.

Split	PA	HR	xHR	BA	xBA	SLG	wOBA	ISO	Barrel%
1st half	291	9	14	.225	.232	.398	.320	.173	14%
2nd half	211	15	14	.317	.279	.617	.433	.300	13%

Across the entire season, Casas was solid. While his first half appeared to be a bit unlucky, his second-half surge appeared to be fueled in part by improvements and in part by luck. If we flipped the halves around, we'd be looking at a hitter who regressed as the season went on and likely looking at Casas in a completely different light. Casas only hit .215 against left-handed pitching (LHP) and his season ended early due to a shoulder issue.

It's reasonable to suggest that Casas made adjustments and developed as he faced more major league pitching. Especially considering he is only 24 years old and last year was his first full season in the majors. First base is a position you need to get significant production from. If you miss out on an elite option, waiting until the later options come your way seems a better plan. Don't expect Casas to repeat his second half over the entirety of 2024.

Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

NFBC ADP: 116

After hitting 32 homers in 2019, Marte hadn't come close to replicating that. In 2023, he hit the second-most of his career, while also playing the second-most games in his career. On the season, Marte hit .276/.358/.485 with 25 homers, 82 RBI, 94 runs, and eight steals (150 games). He set a career-high in plate appearances (650), so it may seem strange to fade Marte this year.

That's largely down to his expected numbers. Marte's .266 xBA, .427 xSLG, and .342 xwOBA (.361 wOBA) aren't vastly different from his actual numbers, but do suggest we'll see regression on his slash line this year. Marte also had 23 xHR, so some slight regression in his power is also likely. That would also lead to a drop in his RBI and runs. All in all, it's difficult to see Marte replicating last year's numbers in 2024.

After hitting .329/.380/.534 in the postseason, it feels like Marte is being overvalued based on his performance in the playoffs as well. Marte will need to repeat his 2023 numbers to provide value on his ADP. After hitting 26 homers in the previous two seasons (227 games), that doesn't look likely. There are many more intriguing second-base options going after Marte, many of whom could outperform him at a later pick.

Luis Arraez, 2B, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: 160

At this point, we know what we're getting with Arraez. The likely batting title winner and not a whole lot else. Last year, Arraez hit .354/.393/.469 with 10 homers, 69 RBI, 71 runs, and three stolen bases (147 games). He set career-highs in home runs and batting average while also putting up a career-low 5.5% K%. This isn't to say batting average isn't important, but it's all Arraez offers. And that is set to regress.

Another career-high for Arraez last year was his .362 BABIP. Arraez unsurprisingly had a lower expected batting average in 2023 (.329 xBA). That still led the league, but wouldn't have helped nearly as much as his actual batting average. In 2022, Arraez hit .316 with a .288 xBA. Given ATC projects Arraez to hit .317, his 2022 numbers seem much more likely this year. We also saw his batting average regress as the season went on.

Even after winning the batting title, Arraez failed to score or drive in many runs. The lack of counting stats can be attributed to the Marlins' lightweight offense. Their 666 runs scored in 2023 were fifth-fewest and the departure of Jorge Soler isn't going to help that. In head-to-head leagues, Arraez might single-handedly win you a category most weeks. But when he's only hitting .280 for a spell, he's just a black hole in your offense.

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