Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 11

July 19, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo highlights some starting pitchers who are set to go off in the second half and a few others who may struggle.

So, what did you do for the last four days? Did you watch the HR Derby and the All-Star Game? Did you make any fantasy baseball trade offers or tinker with your rosters by making some waiver claims?

I am not going to lie, I took some time away from analyzing every stat I could find and worked on several major projects at my house as I am trying to prepare to sell it and move my family to a slightly bigger, more suburban home (that also just happens to have a pool!) But I would also be lying if I claimed not to have been working on some content over the break with my remaining hours, and I wasn't going to miss a chance to do some midseason reflection and even make some second-half predictions.

So this week, I am going to give you my top buy-low (breakout) and sell-high (fakeout) candidates for the second half (and a runner-up for each, too, while I am at it). I am staking my reputation on these pitchers bouncing back (breakouts) and fading (fakeouts), so I have given these picks a considerable amount of thought. Here goes nothing, let's dive into the analysis!

Thunder Dan's Second Half Big Breakout Candidate

Jesus Luzardo - Philadelphia Phillies

First Half Stats: 8-5, 4.14 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27.3% K%, 8.1% BB%

Luzardo came out of the gates on fire to start the season with his new team, posting a 1.73 ERA in March and April. However, he's pitched to a 5.00 ERA or higher in May, June, and through two starts in July.

Those numbers look bad, but Luzardo's run prevention on a per-game basis has been much better, and his ERA is being inflated by just a few bad "blow-up" starts. He surrendered 12 earned runs to Milwaukee on May 31 and then another eight earned runs to the Blue Jays on June 5 (his next start).

That's 20 earned runs (41%) of the 48 total earned runs that he has allowed this season in two very fluky bad starts! He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of 19 starts, putting his team in a good position to win far more often than not.

Luzardo's underlying stats look just fine, and he's likely due for some positive regression in his ratios. His SIERA of 3.45 and xERA of 3.47 are nearly identical and suggest that he's deserving of a better ERA.

His strikeout numbers are solid and are in line with what he had done in Miami from 2022-2023, while his walk rate is right at the league average of 8%. He's featured one of the nastiest pitches in baseball this season, a new sweeper that's yielding major results in the whiff department (42.8%) and inducing soft contact (.209 xwOBA).

Jesús Luzardo, Nasty 85mph Sweeper. ✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/8goIEIvoBO

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 9, 2025

His arsenal has been taken to the next level with the addition of the sweeper as he can now throw two breaking balls at the same speed with much different shapes. The velocity on his fastball is solid (96 mph), and he's not overusing it (just 35% usage) as he mixes in a sinker and changeup, too.

What's pretty wild about Luzardo's inflated ERA is that he's been very good at preventing the home run ball this year with a career-best 0.60 HR/9 and 7% HR/FB%. He's been incredibly unlucky, however, at giving up hits in general. His .370 BABIP is 40 points higher than the next qualified starter (Chris Bassitt - .330). Luzardo's career BABIP is .309, and the league average usually hovers around the .300 mark most years.

When it's hits and not walks that are driving up a pitcher's WHIP, then there's a lot of room for improvement with some better luck over the larger sample size of the full season. The pitcher can control his walk rate to a much larger extent than his hits allowed.

Luzardo is currently ranked just 359 on Yahoo! as his ratios are dragging his ranking down in a big way. There is a clear path to improved ratios in the second half as well as more opportunities for wins and big strikeout totals.

Runner Up: Dylan Cease

First Half Stats: 3-9, 4.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 29% K%, 8.8% BB%

Cease is another guy to buy low and has possibly been even more unlucky than Luzardo. His first season in San Diego last year went well, as he finished with a 3.47 ERA, 14 wins, and 224 strikeouts. He was a workhorse for the Padres, making 33 starts and going over 160 innings pitched for the fourth straight season.

This year, Cease can't seem to buy a win at just 3-9. He continues to rack up innings and strikeouts and is on pace to match last year's totals, but his ERA is nearly a run and a half higher.

The good news for Cease is that his ERA indicators all suggest he has been better than his ERA suggests. His SIERA of 3.41 and xERA of 3.65 are much closer to what we saw from him last season. Cease's .320 BABIP and his 68.1% strand rate are both the sixth-lowest marks among qualified starters.

He's had some bad luck with home runs, too, as his 13.3% HR/FB% is the 15th-highest among qualified starters and his worst mark since 2020.

Cease is throwing more sliders than ever before, which helps to explain his elite K% as it's easily his best pitch.

Cease is always going to be somewhat HR-prone as a fly-ball pitcher, but I would expect some course correction in that category as well as his overall run prevention. He's still a guy with ace-level stuff and elite strikeout chops. I won't be surprised if he turns in a stellar second half.

Thunder Dan's Second Half Fakeout Regression Candidate

Seth Lugo - Kansas City Royals

First Half Stats: 6-5, 2.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21.9% K%, 7.7% BB%

I am sure I will get some push back on this from some, but I implore you to run, don't walk, away from Seth Lugo as fast as you can. If he's on your roster, thank him for his excellent first-half performance and then send him packing to another team where a different manager can experience the inevitable regression that is coming.

Because it's coming...

I'm not here to tell you that Lugo is a bad pitcher, but I am here to yell loudly that he is a very, very average pitcher at this stage of his career. He's overperforming across the board! Let's take a quick look at all the red flags. We can start with his StatCast slider page, which is conveniently featured in this tweet.

Boston needs another frontline starter. A lot of names have been tossed around, but one I'd avoid altogether? Seth Lugo. pic.twitter.com/8vYqgPuga6

— Nicholas Kane (@Nick_the_Voice) July 17, 2025

Yikes, that is A LOT of blue. I mean, it's ALL blue. Yes, Lugo has thrown nine different types of pitches this season, which in itself tends to scream "junkballer who doesn't have a good fastball or one dominant breaking ball."

Here's a closer look at the top six pitches that he features. Each pitch is between 10% and 23% usage.

The cutter is the only pitch that doesn't have a higher expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. This is why Lugo's xERA stands at 4.58, nearly two runs higher than his current ERA.

He's striking out only 21.9% of hitters, which is right around league average and around where he was last season. Sometimes we see average strikeout pitchers get great results because of a high ground-ball rate, but Lugo is not a ground-ball pitcher with just a 38.8% GB%. He has a 90.1% Z-Contact% and just an 8.2% SwStr%. Both those numbers suggest that even his K% could regress in the second half as well.

When it comes to BABIP and LOB%, Lugo is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Cease and Luzardo. His .239 BABIP is the fourth-lowest among qualified starters, and his 87.9% strand rate is the best in all of baseball. For reference, Lugo's career marks are .281 (BABIP) and 77% (LOB%).

Pitching at Kauffmann Stadium is a big advantage for a pitcher (the third-fewest home runs have been hit there this season), but Lugo has still given up seven home runs at home and another eight on the road. If the good luck he's having on other batted balls runs out, we are looking at big-time regression in his ERA.

Lugo is simply not this good! Pitchers without dominant stuff simply can't keep getting these types of results against major league hitters. It's going to catch up to Lugo, sooner or later.

Runner Up: Clay Holmes

First Half Stats: 8-4, 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 19.2% K%, 9.5% BB%

Stop me if you have heard this before. Clay Holmes has now pitched 33 more innings this season than in any other season of his career. The converted reliever threw 70 innings in 2021 between the Pirates and Yankees and then 63 innings the following three years in a row.

The Mets have to be thrilled with what they got out of Holmes so far this season, and fantasy managers can likely celebrate, too, as Holmes was a late-round pick in most drafts. But Holmes feels like a ticking time bomb, and there are already signs that his production is starting to tail off.

In three July starts, Holmes has a 5.28 ERA with six walks and just eight strikeouts across 15 frames. That's a 12.5% K% and 9.4% BB% in July, woof! He's wearing down and simply not missing many bats anymore. He can get away with that more than others, as he's still posting a 55% GB%, but even that number is a career low for Holmes, who owns a 63% GB% for his career.

The walks are troubling and are already starting to raise his WHIP. If his batted ball luck runs out (.268 BABIP), we are looking at a 1.40 WHIP or worse with how often opposing hitters are putting the ball in play.

I am not saying Holmes has a ton of value right now in fantasy baseball, but I do think you can try to sell his high win total and respectable ratios to someone else, that way you aren't stuck with him when he eventually blows up.

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