Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 13)

June 15, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 13 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 6/13)   

There are a couple oddball names in here, but Otto Lopez and Freddy Fermin could be value plays in DFS. Lopez also notably has five stolen bases on the season, so if he stays hot, he could become rosterable in redraft leagues.

Alex Bregman (14)

Alex Bregman was mentioned in the "Highest ISO Last Seven Days" section of this article a couple weeks ago and all he's done since then is hit. Prior to this current hit streak, Bregman's batting average sat at .206. During the streak, the 30-year-old has gone 20-for-55 (.364) and has raised his BA all the way to .240, which is just a hair below league average (.241 in 2024).

Bobby Witt Jr. (14)

After a 2-for-3 day at the plate on Thursday, Bobby Witt Jr. extended his hit streak to 14 games. During that stretch, he has gone 26-for-61 (.426) with four doubles, a triple, and two home runs. The former first-round draft pick had a 10-game hit streak just before this one as well, meaning he's hit safely in 24 of his last 25 games, hitting .381 (40-for-105) since May 17.

Bobby Witt Jr. x2 💥 pic.twitter.com/6oC0pZxoML

— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2024

Steven Kwan (8*)

*not listed in table above

If you haven't noticed, Steven Kwan has been on absolute fire since he came off the IL back on May 31. Kwan was hitting .353 before he went on the IL, but he's been even better since reinstatement, going 15-for-30 over his last eight games with three doubles, a home run, five RBI, 11 runs scored, and more walks than hits (6:3). It's shaping up to be a career year for the 26-year-old, slashing .380/.445/.534 with a .428 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He's on pace to easily surpass his career-best mark of six home runs and is striking out at an unbelievably low rate of 7.7% (while walking at a 9.3% rate).

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/12) 

Check out the names on this list. They aren't as intriguing as they have been lately, as most of these are bigger names, but we'll discuss a couple of them in depth below.

Teoscar Hernandez (.417)

We already talked about Kwan at the top of the list, and it's pretty surprising to see Carlos Correa's name up there these days, but look at the total bases for Teoscar Hernandez (28). He's gone 10-for-24 in his last six games, and eight of those hits have gone for extra bases (three doubles, five home runs). You could say he's fitting in just fine with his new club, holding a .262-17-50-40-4 line with a .366 wOBA and 141 wRC+ on the season.

Teoscar Hernández follows his heroics last night with a solo shot to open the scoring tonight. pic.twitter.com/X105tymsho

— MLB (@MLB) June 9, 2024

Corbin Carroll (.417)

Don't look now, but maybe Corbin Carroll is breaking out of his season-long funk. Carroll's average stood at .192 on June 5, but since June 6 (six games), the reigning NL Rookie of the Year has gone 10-for-24 (.417) with two doubles and a triple, raising his average back above the Mendoza Line to .213. Perhaps even more telling that maybe he's getting back on track: he hasn't struck out once over the last six games (while adding four walks).

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/12)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Paul DeJong (.423)

Probably should have saved Hernandez for this section, and sure we could talk about Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Luis Robert Jr., but you already know those guys can hit for power. Look at the last four names on this list for some value names for DFS over the past week that could be values again heading into the weekend and next week, notably Paul DeJong. The veteran is going to cruise past his home-run total of 14 from last season, having belted 13 already on the back of a career-high Barrel% of 11.3%. Over the past week, he's hitting for average, too, batting .308 (8-for-26).

Paul DeJong! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/hlzGAqCjR4

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) June 9, 2024

Seiya Suzuki (.421)

Seiya Suzuki got hot over the last week as well, hitting .368 (7-for-19) with two doubles and two home runs. What he's also got going for him are the two steals this past week with most others on this list with zero. The 29-year-old only has four steals on the season, but three of them have come since May 29. He's set to sail past the six steals he put up last season in 138 games, and he's got a solid .349 wOBA with a 128 wRC+ over 42 games thus far.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 6/12) 

David Hamilton (4)

One name on this list you may not be overly familiar with unless you're a Red Sox fan is David Hamilton. Injuries have opened the door to Hamilton's playing time and he's made the most of it. The 26-year-old is batting .296 with four home runs, 10 RBI, 21 runs scored, and what feels like an under-the-radar 13 stolen bases on the season. If this is news to you, you may also be happy to know that he's available in 60% of Yahoo leagues with both 2B and SS eligibility.

David Hamilton refuses to stop hitting. pic.twitter.com/VsIDsz6cNE

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) June 14, 2024

xSLG Underachievers

(data through 6/12, minimum 100 AB)

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Jackson Merrill (.389 vs. .484)

After going through a power outage for 20 games where he did not record a single extra-base hit, Jackson Merrill has exhibited a power surge over the last seven games, collecting four doubles and two home runs. The 21-year-old is hitting for average as well, going 10-for-27 over this stretch (.370). Despite the recent outburst, the youngster still has one of the highest discrepancies between actual SLG and xBA, so look for this surge to continue as he's making good contact (84.2%), striking out at a low rate (14.8%), and barreling the ball up at a decent rate (7.1%).

JACKSON MERRILL #WALKOFF BLAST pic.twitter.com/zS8fYGmWjr

— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2024

George Springer (.295 vs. .381)

On the surface, it seems George Springer is having a poor season, batting .198 with just 14 RBI through 61 games. Looking deeper, perhaps he's just well overdue for a turnaround. The veteran has a career-high Contact% (80.0%, tied with 2023 rate), striking out well below average (15.5% vs. 22.2%) and walking at an above-average rate (10.9% vs. 8.3%). The .217 BABIP compared to a career BABIP of .296 certainly stands out. Looking at his xBA of .260, it appears some hits just aren't falling in. Granted, he's not barreling the ball or hitting as hard as he used to, but he should be better than this.

xSLG Overachievers

(data through 6/12, minimum 100 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who will eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Jeimer Candelario (.473 vs. .375)

Jeimer Candelario had a powerful 2023, hitting 39 doubles, three triples, and 22 home runs in 576 PA. As far as home runs are concerned, that's .038 HR/PA. This season, the 30-year-old has 11 home runs, with seven of them coming in his last 18 games. His rate this season is .044 HR/PA, which would put him on pace for about 26 home runs if he were to record 576 PA again. This despite the fact he's got a higher K% this season compared to last year, a lower contact rate, higher chase rate, lower barrel rate, etc. The numbers are saying there should be regression from here, and I suspect there will be.

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