X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 10)

Colt Keith - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 10 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 5/23)   

Jurickson Profar (12)

We spoke about Ketel Marte the last couple weeks, so while his 21-game hit streak is impressive, we'll skip down to Jurickson Profar, who has the highest average during their streak of anyone on the list (Marte has the lowest, interestingly). Profar is having a career year so far, providing some pop and average. The switch-hitter has a .339-7-32-31-3 line with a .416 wOBA and 178 wRC+. The 31-year-old has an unusually high BABIP of .371, so there may be some regression coming, but his xBA is still good at .310 and xwOBA is still an impressive .378.

 

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/22) 

Check out the names on this list as there are some interesting ones for sure that could help in both season-long and DFS, but we'll discuss the top two names in depth below.

Matt Chapman (.611)

Matt Chapman was batting a meager .206 through May 15, but since then he's caught fire, going 11-for-18 over his last five games. The hot streak includes five doubles and home runs in two straight games. The former All-Star has seen his batting average rise all the way up to .245 with a .311 OBP and .426 SLG. This white-hot streak is reminiscent of his start to last season when he went 23-for-47 (.489) over the first 12 games but hit .214 the rest of the way. Hopefully this is sustainable, and perhaps it is as he's posting a career-high contact rate of 79.5%, but buyer beware.

(Update: Chapman went 2-for-5 Thursday with a home run in a third straight game)

Colt Keith (.571)

Two weeks ago, I had Colt Keith in this article, but further down under the "xBA Underachievers" section because his numbers were indicating he was due for a turnaround. Well, it doesn't always happen the way it should, but in Keith's case, it did. He's hitting .571 over the last seven days and is 15-for-33 (.455) since he was mentioned as an underachiever.

The 22-year-old is known for his power and hit 27 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but has yet to homer in 2024. Now that he's putting the bat on the ball with some consistency, the power should come. The left-handed hitter is available in over 80% of Yahoo leagues and is also eligible at both 2B and 3B for those buying the breakout.

(Update: Keith went 0-for-3 on Thursday)

 

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/22)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Nolan Gorman (.714)

Nolan Gorman was a big power guy coming up through the minors, hitting no less than 15 home runs in any minor league season and ultimately belting 16 long balls in just 43 games at Triple-A before he got the call to the majors in 2022. The former first-round draft pick hit 14 more for the Cardinals in just 89 games in '22, and went on to hit 27 last season. But instead of taking another step forward, the 24-year-old has regressed, hitting just .207 in 2024 and relegated to a platoon role at second base.

You can see his numbers over the last seven days in the table above, but he's been hitting for almost two weeks now, slashing .345/.472/.828 (1.30 OPS) since May 10 with a .483 ISO. Gorman has certainly been a disappointment in season-long, but perhaps he's still usable in DFS while he's hot. With the lowest Contact% (61.7%) in all of baseball among qualified hitters (by a wide margin) and second-highest strikeout rate (35.8%), this may not be sustainable. At least the 16.3% barrel rate points to some additional home runs along the way.

Dylan Moore (.684)

Dylan Moore filled in admirably while J.P. Crawford was out, but since Crawford came back Monday, Seattle has found a way to keep Moore's bat in the lineup, playing second base, third base, and left field at some point over the last three games. You can see the numbers he's put over the past week, but in just Tuesday's and Wednesday's games alone, the 31-year-old is 5-for-8 (.625) with a double and two home runs. The utility man is eligible at 2B, SS, and OF in Yahoo leagues, and has also stolen six bases on the season. He can be a solid bench bat that can help managers plug holes in season-long lineups.

 

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 5/22) 

Luis Rengifo (3)

Luis Rengifo stood out before the season began as one of the players who increased their walk rate the most year-over-year from 2022 to 2023, going from 3.3% to 9.2%. The 27-year-old hasn't been able to repeat quite that level of success in 2024, but his 7.0% BB% is still near much better than it was two seasons ago.

The switch-hitter's Contact% is at a career high of 81.9% and the K% is at a career low of 14.8%, which has buoyed his career-best OBP of .362. All of this has upped his stolen-base opportunities and he's taken advantage, stealing 12 bases so far, six better than his previous career high.

Rengifo wasn't getting regular playing time earlier in the season, but that hasn't been an issue as of late. The power output has been a bit disappointing after he hit 17 and 16 home runs the last two seasons. With a 2.0% Barrel%, we might not be able to expect many more than his current total of three, but a .308 batting average might be a fine consolation prize. He's also eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF in Yahoo leagues, making him all the more useful.

 

xSLG Underachievers

(data through 5/22, minimum 50 AB)

Normally we look at xBA here, but many of those same names still appear on that list, so we'll look at xSLG this week and revisit xBA next week. Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Corey Seager (.404 vs. .544)

Corey Seager managers will be happy to see that he's got one of the biggest discrepancies in SLG and xSLG and that he should be slugging much better than he is. It's not that he's been bad, having tallied eight home runs thus far, but he's got just three doubles after hitting the second-most doubles in the entire league last season. The 30-year-old should continue to hit homers based on his 13.9% Barrel%, but his SweetSpot% has dropped from 86th percentile to 70th percentile, so perhaps the left-handed hitter just needs to work on some launch-angle improvements.

 

xSLG Overachievers

(data through 5/22, minimum 50 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who will eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Isaac Paredes  (.512 vs. .387)

Isaac Paredes has nine home runs on the season and is batting .308, but can he keep it up? The 25-year-old is a career .241 hitter and his current .336 BABIP is well above his career rate of .251, so regression seems like it is coming. Many of his other numbers like K%, BB%, Contact%, and Barrel% are all mostly in line with career numbers, so a repeat of last year's 31 home runs might be doable, but his xSLG also points to regression.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Day'Ron Sharpe

Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Moritz Wagner

has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Bobby Portis

Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
James Harden

Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Dorian Finney-Smith

Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Kevin Porter Jr.

Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
Ryan Blaney

Is Always Strong at Atlanta
Joey Logano

Wins Pole, Looking for Third Atlanta Win
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF