FAAB Bidding - Week 4 NFL Waiver Wire Targets

September 25, 2018

In fantasy football leagues that use FAAB (free agent acquisition budget), it can be hard to know how much money to spend on key players at QB, RB, WR, or TE. Kev Mahserejian gives fantasy owners his recommendations on how to spend FAAB for Week 4.

As an addendum to our famous Waiver Wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, in this column we also present suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These auction values are here to provide a baseline to understand roughly how much you should be targeting to spend on a particular player. If you want to go wild and blow a chunk of your budget on a guy you believe in, by all means, carry on. However, these players are not a dime a dozen. Guys get injured and other guys replace them and their production all the time, every year. You only have so much FAAB money, so spend it as wisely as possible.

We're three weeks into the year so make sure you are set for the long haul with some FAAB in your pocket. Don't be disappointed if you don't get one of these guys because someone spent significantly more, because it's likely that they overpaid. As the year winds down and the playoff race gets tighter, that's when you're going to want this fake money the most. With that being said, below are our FAAB auction bidding recommendations for Week 4. Good luck, and happy bidding!

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 3-4%
33% owned         

Completely ignore his most recent game against Carolina and look forward. The Bengals have one of the easiest fantasy schedules in the league going forward. The most daunting defense they will face before Week 13 is Baltimore in Week 11 and they already dismantled them last Thursday (sans C.J. Mosley). Dalton is not going to be a world beater, but he's probably the best quarterback available in most leagues and this fantasy schedule is undeniably favorable. Tyler Boyd has stepped up in recent weeks and seems to be breaking out. Once Joe Mixon returns from his knee injury this offense should be even more solid.

Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 1%
14% owned

The Baltimore Ravens' offense is much improved from last year. The receivers have been reliable for Joe Flacco. Alex Collins and Javorious Allen are proving to be a solid one-two punch in the backfield. The offensive line is doing their job well. None of this makes Flacco "elite" but it makes him better than he has been in recent years. He should continue to provide decent yardage totals and a couple of touchdowns per game with the occasional pick or two. Don't expect much, but definitely feel confident streaming him. His schedule is solid up until the Ravens' Week 9 BYE, with the only challenging defense being Carolina.

Josh Allen (QB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
3% owned

This is a purely speculative add. Allen is by no means worth starting in 1-QB leagues for now but he showed some promise in this past weekend's matchup in Minnesota. The Vikings roll out one of the toughest defenses in the league week in and week out yet somehow Josh Allen managed to put up over 20 fantasy points on them and helped lead Buffalo to a win. Various factors went into this triumphant upset. First and foremost, Buffalo's defense was voracious throughout the game and forced three turnovers out of Kirk Cousins giving Buffalo's offense amazing field position a couple times. Secondly, Minnesota's defense wasn't ready for Allen's mobility and athleticism. Allen scored two touchdowns with his legs and was constantly getting away from a staunch pass-rush that happened to be missing Everson Griffen. Had he played, the game might have looked a bit different, but we shouldn't speculate.

According to Evan Silva, Allen leads all QBs in red-zone carries and scrambles inside the ten-yard line. there could be value here. The defenses in his division aren't elite and he still has that rocket arm. The biggest hindrance to his production outside of his raw skills will be the offense around him. The receivers stink, the offensive line stinks and his running backs (assuming LeSean McCoy can't play all year) stink. Allen doesn't have much help if any at all and is going to have to do a lot of things by himself. However, that is sometimes very fantasy friendly. Best case scenario, he's a poor man's Cam Newton. Worst case, he's back on the wire. Give him a shot if you need QB upside.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Corey Clement (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 7-15%
60% owned

With Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out, Clement touched the ball nearly 20 times on Sunday. This sort of volume is nothing to scoff at going forward. Clement is a must-own in all leagues just based on the fact that Sproles and Ajayi probably won't stay healthy all year. Clement owners only need one of these guys to go down for a while to have a cheap RB2 in Clement going forward.

Javorius Allen (RB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 7-15%
27% owned

Javorious "Buck" Allen refuses to go away. He is not efficient on the ground one bit, yet continues to get touches in Baltimore's backfield. His ability in short yardage situations and passing downs have basically put him on a level playing field with fourth-round fantasy pick Alex Collins points-wise and it is infuriating Collins' owners. Allen has four touchdowns in three games and while chasing TDs isn't a wise fantasy strategy, it could pay dividends on occasion. This is a weird situation where fantasy value trumps actual talent so pick up Allen if you want a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX. His value will not be predictable going forward because his floor without these touchdowns is pretty low. It's pretty doubtful that he keeps up his scoring pace but it's hard to say that he is not worth a pickup.

Marlon Mack (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
35% owned

Marlon Mack was inactive Sunday against Philadelphia due to a nagging hamstring injury. Despite this, he is still worth grabbing in leagues given the fact that Indianapolis is devoid of talent in the backfield. As long as Mack can get and stay healthy, he should see plenty of touches in the future. He showed a good amount of talent backing up Frank Gore as a rookie last season. Jordan Wilkins has not shown much thus far so competition is thin. Only the addition of a running back like Le'Veon Bell via trade could hamper Mack's outlook on the rest of the year.

Chris Ivory (RB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
6% owned

No one really wants to own a Buffalo Bills running back in 2018. However, with LeSean McCoy's rib injury and legal situation, there might be some value in journeyman Chris Ivory. He has back to back double-digit half PPR performances and could be a high volume starting RB if McCoy misses more time. Josh Allen showed some flashes of what he could become this past Sunday. This is just speculation, but maybe defenses will key in on Allen a bit more opening up some running lanes. Ivory is a built like a workhorse back but just does not have the talent. If given volume, he will put up low-end RB2 numbers based on his usage in goal-line situations alone. He's more viable as a handcuff for McCoy owners and not worth much of a bid unless you're RB starved.

Wendell Smallwood (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
2% owned

The Eagles leaned on Smallwood heavily throughout the course of Sunday's game against Indianapolis. With Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out of commission, Smallwood and Corey Clement took the reigns of the backfield and did their jobs decently. Smallwood is not likely to see too many carries while Ajayi is healthy, but he has low-end RB2 potential if Ajayi continues to miss time. Don't blow much on him just after Sunday's performance because he's just a flier to throw on the end of your bench if you're desperate for RBs.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%
17% owned

Tyler Boyd is breaking out. This follows with the third-year WR trend and all indications point to a good season for him. Boyd is Dalton's favorite receiver to target when under pressure, and given the state of his offensive line at times, that should be often. A.J. Green is currently dealing with a groin injury but he has constantly been hampered by nagging injuries in the past that made him exit games early. Boyd is young, healthy and available in most leagues. He may be in line for a season akin to Nelson Agholor in 2017. He's playing primarily out of the slot and getting targeted heavily. Add him if he's available.

Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%
44% owned

Calvin Ridley has more touchdowns in 2018 than Julio Jones did in 2017. Let me rephrase that. Calvin Ridley had as many touchdowns in one game Sunday as Julio Jones did in all of 2017. Add Calvin Ridley. Rookie wide receivers usually aren't worth our time, but this one is. Ridley is older than your typical rookie and has shown it over the past two games with over 200 yards and four touchdowns. He will continue to get soft coverage thanks to Julio Jones playing opposite him which will lead to more opportunities to blow by opponents. He is officially the Falcons' WR2 and should continue to produce in a highly talented offense that is going to have to throw a ton thanks to their defense.

Antonio Callaway (WR, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
33% owned

Baker Mayfield is officially the starting quarterback for the Browns and he is going to be slinging the rock. Callaway is one of the beneficiaries of this QB change and will be of value going forward. despite posting a mediocre 20-yard outing in this past week's game, Callaway was targeted 10 times. Double-digit targets may not be a trend, but he is still going to get his fair share of looks as the team's best outside receiver.

Geronimo Allison (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 8-15%
34% owned

Geronimo Allison has lowkey been productive thus far in 2018. He has amassed double-digit PPR points in every game so far with two touchdowns in these three games. As the Packers' WR opposite Davante Adams, Allison will typically see the weaker outside cornerback. He is not much more than a WR3/Flex in fantasy right now, but if his production keeps up, he could rise into WR2 territory. The only concern right now is his declining target share. Allison's game log has shown his targets go from eight to six to four over these past few weeks. This should stabilize to roughly five or six per game going forward which would make him a valuable bench piece at worst

Chris Godwin (WR, TB) - FAAB Bid: 8-15%
42% owned

Chris Godwin has three touchdowns in three games yet isn't owned in more than 50% of leagues. This will change after waivers clear in the middle of the week. Godwin's target share has increased in every game so far, going from four to six to ten. He has built a great rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and draws a healthy amount of red-zone targets. He's quickly turning into a WR2 and you're gonna have to pay a bit for it.

Christian Kirk (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 3-7%
7% owned

Arizona has finally turned to rookie Josh Rosen to start at quarterback and this may lead to a decent change in the offense. Although they might not win many games, Rosen should be much more capable of landing completing passes to his receivers so a starter like Kirk should become a lot more fantasy viable. Kirk is talented and should be able to make some plays with the ball in his hands going forward. Only concern is the offensive line not giving Rosen enough time to release the ball.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
51% owned

Tyler Eifert! Remember Tyler Eifert? Well, I do and notably, his target share has increased over the past three games from three to four to eight. Pick Tyler Eifert up if you are struggling at tight end and pray that he is about 75 percent of who he was because that is still a million times better than what is typically on the wire. Eifert's snap count has increased up to 65 percent which is very solid for a primary receiving TE especially one with his upcoming schedule. He could be a steal off the wire for the right price.

Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, ARI) FAAB Bid: 2-4%
22% owned

In the same light as Christia Kirk, Ricky Seals-Jones should benefit from Sam Bradford being benched. Josh Rosen loved throwing to his tight ends in college and should that trend follow, RSJ could be a viable TE2. He is literally playing almost every down with snap rates above 90 percent in his first two games and 84 percent in this most recent one. RSJ could be targeted in the red-zone more assuming that Arizona can find themselves more often. He's not worth bidding too much on, but definitely worth a shot off the wire.

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 1-4%
17% owned

Hooper isn't going to win any matchups, but he should put consistent points up at the tight end position. Enough so that he can be a solid streamer or filler for an injury-riddled team. There isn't much to say about Hooper fantasy wise aside from that. He gets some red-zone targets and could end up with four or five scores by the end of the year, but you just have to be patient.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Chargers D/ST - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
60% owned

The Chargers defense has underwhelmed thus far and been dropped in several leagues. Do not allow this to distract you from the fact that they are missing Joey Bosa and have played the two best offenses in the league through three games. Their upcoming schedule is extremely favorable even without Bosa. Pay a little bit, start them, and leave them in until their BYE.

New York Jets D/ST - FAAB Bid: 1%
31% owned

The Jets' defense has been a pleasant surprise through the first few weeks of the season. After an absolutely dominant start against Detroit, they have cooled down a bit, yet remain a solid mid-tier streaming option. Todd Bowles is officially taking over play-calling duties on D going forward so we should see some interesting looks going forward. In shallower leagues, they are better off as a streamer against bad offenses but for deeper leagues, they are should get the job done.

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