X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Picks - RBC Heritage PGA DFS Lineup Advice

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the RBC Heritage on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy. 

Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad. 

Featured Promo: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RBC Heritage

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

 

Harbour Town

7,099 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

Designed in 1969 by Pete Dye, with the help of Jack Nicklaus, Harbour Town provides the ideal blend of strategy and positional awareness off the tee for a property that measures in at just under 7,100 yards. All of that probably sounds as you might expect when you think of Dye and Nicklaus working together, but it is worth noting that this venue was the first time the 'Golden Bear' tried his hand at developing a course, which makes the masterfully pieced together components all that much more impressive.

When we start trying to figure out what to weigh from a statistical perspective, the lack of length sticks out like a sore thumb, but I would be careful in overanalyzing that measurable for a few core reasons. For starters, the narrow landing areas off the tee give us this enclosed feel because of the tree-lined nature of the grounds, but more importantly, the driving distance for the field gets completely negated because of the positional aspect I was speaking about earlier. Golfers see a substantial aggregate of 10.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average, and that overexposure of mid-to-long iron play makes the eight percent decrease in GIR rate that much more noticeable. You will hear countless times this week that the decline in GIR percentage stems solely from the smaller-than-average greens, but please note that wind adds to that reduction because of the coastal layout of the grounds.

Sand traps can play a factor since it feels as if they are always looming, and the 18 individual water hazards aren't always in play but can provide some issues here and there. Overall, the high predictive nature of rollover success from course history ranks the tournament inside the top five when measuring that stat, and the ability to provide a reconfigured tee-to-green game will not go unnoticed for the week. I will talk a little more about what I mean by that answer in my model breakdown below, but these tracks always fit a specific type of player, and our goal is to mimic the intangibles needed from a mathematical perspective.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat RBC Heritage Tour Average
Driving Distance 267 283
Driving Accuracy 66% 62%
GIR Percentage 57% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.38 0.56

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

  • Weighted T2G (30%) 
  • Weighted OTT + APP (7.5%)
  • Weighted Grass Type (10%)
  • SG: Total Pete Dye (12.5%)
  • SG: Total Wind (7.5%)
  • SG: Total Under 7,200 Yards (12.5%)
  • Par-Four Ranges (10%)
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)

I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Justin Thomas leads the pack at $11,100 on DraftKings and also comes in as the top golfer on my model when running it from both an overall and safety sense. Thomas has been immaculate with his tee-to-green arsenal over the past few starts, averaging 8.6 strokes to the field since the Waste Management Open, and it only feels like a matter of time before the putter cooperates for him in what has been a one-year winless drought on tour. Thomas ranks second in this field when looking at my weighted tee-to-green metrics - one spot below his expectation at a random track - but we also see him inside the top-10 in five of the seven additional categories that I weighed. 

Moving our way down, Cameron Smith ($10,800), Dustin Johnson ($10,500) and Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) all appear to be checking in as early leverage options at around 10 percent. All three are popping inside the top-10 of my model, so let's see where the popularity goes over the next few days. My early lean is that Johnson provides the best combination of safety and upside for the group, but that isn't exactly coming to fruition with the American showing as the highest-priced golfer on the slate from this section when looking at the outright market, while also being an underdog in every matchup. The big-hitter has been good at Harbour Town with three top-17 finishes over his past four starts, and the general belief that he would prefer a course that allows you to bomb away freely might be incorrect when we dive into the numbers. Yes, Johnson ranks inside the top-10 of this field for distance, but he also finds himself third off the tee when looking at only courses under 7,200 yards. 

And we round out this section with Collin Morikawa ($10,200), who is currently slotted to be the most popular selection of the five. The 25-year-old grades as the top golfer in this field when attaching an even distribution of the pertinent off the tee and approach metrics needed, but it is worth noting that he provides a few massive red flags, including sand save percentage, putting from 5-10 feet, around the green and scrambling - all stats where he ranks outside the top-85 for the week.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

The board is priced well for the RBC Heritage. I will include Webb Simpson ($8,800) into this mix, but the top-14 golfers on DraftKings all rank inside the top-11 of my model in some iteration (aside from Jordan Spieth, $9,200).  If nothing else, that does provide a GPP outlook if you believe Spieth can turn his woes around, but the bigger picture of what I am trying to explain is that I am not finding much value to heavily back or fade. The market tends to be in agreement with the players I am lower on for the week, and the lack of real differential in pricing makes it a tricky slate to attack at the top.

I do like Shane Lowry ($9,800). The venue sets up well for him - indicative by his two top-nine finishes over his past three attempts. The form also looks impressive, with four top-13s in his last four stroke-play contests, but I don't know how eager I am to back the Irishman as the top-owned player in the field. Lowry is an underdog early on Monday in a head-to-head battle against Patrick Cantlay - a golfer that will be half the total, so I find it too early to take a firm stance in either direction until we get some clarity. Daniel Berger ($9,600) and Joaquin Niemann ($9,100) are two of the more intriguing options in this range that could go slightly overlooked. I am not claiming it is going to be anything outlandish since both should still clear 10 percent, but each ranks inside the top-five at Harbour Town when it comes to course history in their reduced sample sizes, and both golfers are inside the top-10 for weighted tee-to-green and wind play.

From purely a GPP perspective, I would take Sungjae Im ($9,300) over Jordan Spieth if taking that route. Im has the prerequisites needed in par-five scoring, par-four average and experience on surfaces like he will get this week because of his general dominance in Florida during the spring. This Bermuda grass type that is overseeded is one the South Korean knows well, but the questionable history at the RBC Heritage should have Im go slightly under the radar. And that takes us to the final group of Corey Conners ($9,700), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) and Russell Henley ($9,000). It is still too early to project since all three are looking like top-10 owned players for the event, but Henley and Fitzpatrick have immediately opened as substantial favorites in most of their head-to-head matchups offshore. That point is keeping each on my list of options, despite the worrisome totals, but any slippage there could send them free-falling, especially Fitzpatrick, who is grading as a better cash-game play than a GPP target at this moment.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range

I think I am fine salary-saving in the $7,000 range and avoiding most of these $8,000 golfers, but the two that intrigue me the most are Webb Simpson ($8,800) and Billy Horschel ($8,700). Simpson's course history is beautiful after providing all top-16 finishes since 2017, including his victory here in 2020, and Horschel has been one of the hottest players in the world and even found a way to find marginal success at the Masters, making the cut in an event that didn't suit his game.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:

  1. The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
  2. The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.

Options like Aaron Wise, Russell Knox, etc. qualified when running it for upside. Those choices will be much more volatile, so keep that in mind when constructing builds. The only golfers to grade as a positive value for both overall compared to DK and overall compared to ownership were: Kevin Streelman ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300), Lucas Glover ($7,200), Kevin Na ($7,800), C.T. Pan ($7,000), Charles Howell III ($7,100) and Cameron Tringale ($7,000). 

Na is likely my favorite play in this section.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.

These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:

  1. The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
  2. The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.

Joel Dahmen and Cameron Davis are the two early outliers of my model. 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Alperen Sengun8 mins ago

Should Play On Saturday
Leonard Fournette30 mins ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Ryan McLeod49 mins ago

Delivers Three Assists Saturday
Evan Bouchard58 mins ago

Nets Two Goals In Saturday's Win
Mario Ferraro1 hour ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Maxx Williams1 hour ago

Elevated To Active Roster
Evan Rodrigues1 hour ago

Will Miss 2-4 Weeks
Jonas Brodin2 hours ago

On Track To Return Sunday
Ryan Lindgren2 hours ago

Ends Productive Outing With Injury
Marquise Brown2 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Justise Winslow2 hours ago

Expected To Play On Sunday
Mike Conley2 hours ago

Will Miss Another One On Saturday
Dalano Banton3 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Dallas
Fred VanVleet3 hours ago

Returning Against Mavs
Yuta Watanabe3 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Chris Paul3 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday Evening
Alperen Sengun3 hours ago

Upgraded For Meeting With OKC
Logan Thompson3 hours ago

Expected To Start Saturday
Bruno Fernando3 hours ago

Out On Saturday
Josh Richardson3 hours ago

Remains Out Versus The Lakers
Keita Bates-Diop4 hours ago

Out On Saturday Night
Aleksander Barkov4 hours ago

Will Be A Game Time Saturday Due To Illness
Anthony Davis4 hours ago

Questionable Versus San Antonio
LeBron James4 hours ago

Probable For Rematch With Spurs
Alexandar Georgiev4 hours ago

Likely To Start Saturday
Justin Fields5 hours ago

Bears Could Hold Justin Fields Out To Avoid Long-Term Damage
Green Bay Packers5 hours ago

David Bakhtiari Questionable For Week 12
Odell Beckham Jr.6 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Until Late December
Ja'Marr Chase6 hours ago

Officially Out On Sunday
Deebo Samuel6 hours ago

Dealing With "Different" Hamstring Issue
David Krejci8 hours ago

Scores Twice In Bruins Win
Kirill Kaprizov8 hours ago

Extends Scoring Run With Two Points
Darcy Kuemper8 hours ago

Shuts Out Calgary
Lucas Raymond8 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Friday's Win
Nikita Kucherov8 hours ago

Racks Up Three Assists
Shea Theodore8 hours ago

Logs Two Assists Versus Seattle
Jason Robertson8 hours ago

Takes Over League Lead In Goals
Shake Milton11 hours ago

Goes Close To A Triple-Double
Jerami Grant11 hours ago

Explodes For Career-High 44 Points
Kevin Durant11 hours ago

Finishes A Losing Effort With 36 Points
Bam Adebayo11 hours ago

Scores Season-High 38 Points
Trae Young11 hours ago

Goes Off For Season-High 44 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo11 hours ago

Can't Be Stopped By Cavs
Josh Giddey11 hours ago

Flirts With A Triple-Double
Brandon Ingram11 hours ago

Suffers A Toe Injury
Carlos Santana22 hours ago

Pirates Agree With Carlos Santana On Friday
Demarcus Robinson1 day ago

Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson Questionable
Rondale Moore1 day ago

Officially Out In Week 12
Raheem Mostert1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful Against Texans
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

Questionable To Face The Saints
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Questionable To Play In Week 12
Mike Williams1 day ago

Ruled Out Against Cardinals
John Klingberg1 day ago

Considered Day-To-Day
TB1 day ago

Alex Barre-Boulet Gets A Look After Impressing In The AHL
Ross Colton1 day ago

Ready For Action Again
Kyle Okposo1 day ago

Returns From A Six-Game Absence
Yegor Chinakhov1 day ago

Returns For Columbus
Narciso Crook1 day ago

Red Sox Sign Narciso Crook To Minor-League Deal
Denyi Reyes1 day ago

Mets Sign Denyi Reyes
Kyle Allen1 day ago

Confirmed As Week 12 Starter
Kadarius Toney1 day ago

Chiefs Rule Out Kadarius Toney
Leonard Fournette1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful
Jerry Jeudy1 day ago

KJ Hamler Ruled Out For Week 12
Marquise Brown1 day ago

Cardinals Optimistic About Marquise Brown's Return
Kyler Murray1 day ago

Ready To Return Against Chargers
Greg Dortch1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision For Week 12
Milwaukee Brewers1 day ago

Blake Perkins Signs With Brewers
Elliot Soto1 day ago

Twins Re-Sign Elliot Soto
Los Angeles Angels1 day ago

Angels Sign Jacob Webb
Xander Bogaerts1 day ago

Padres Looking At Xander Bogaerts?
Brandon Nimmo1 day ago

Rays Among Teams Interested In Brandon Nimmo
Michael Conforto1 day ago

Cubs Considering Michael Conforto
Hoy Park2 days ago

Red Sox Acquire Hoy Park From Pirates
Chad Wallach3 days ago

Angels Re-Sign Chad Wallach
Cody Bellinger3 days ago

Rockies Interested In Cody Bellinger
Carlos Rodón3 days ago

Rangers Have Serious Interest In Carlos Rodon
Aaron Judge3 days ago

Giants Expected To Make Formal Offer To Aaron Judge
Bryce Harper3 days ago

Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Hoy Park3 days ago

Pirates Designate Hoy Park For Assignment
Joely Rodríguez3 days ago

Red Sox Sign Joely Rodriguez
Hunter Renfroe3 days ago

Brewers Acquire Janson Junk In Hunter Renfroe Trade
Brandon Nimmo4 days ago

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger
Trea Turner4 days ago

"Likely" Phillies' Top SS Target
Hunter Renfroe4 days ago

Angels Trade For Hunter Renfroe Tuesday
Ion Cutelaba5 days ago

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss In Main Event
Kennedy Nzechukwu5 days ago

Shines In Main Event Spotlight
Chase Sherman5 days ago

Escapes Finishing Loss And Makes It To Decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Andre Fialho5 days ago

Takes Second Loses In As Many Contests
Muslim Salikhov5 days ago

Returns To Winning Ways With TKO Stoppage
Danny Roberts5 days ago

Continues To Slide With First Round Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP