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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the RBC Heritage on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RBC Heritage
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Harbour Town
7,099 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
Designed in 1969 by Pete Dye, with the help of Jack Nicklaus, Harbour Town provides the ideal blend of strategy and positional awareness off the tee for a property that measures in at just under 7,100 yards. All of that probably sounds as you might expect when you think of Dye and Nicklaus working together, but it is worth noting that this venue was the first time the 'Golden Bear' tried his hand at developing a course, which makes the masterfully pieced together components all that much more impressive.
When we start trying to figure out what to weigh from a statistical perspective, the lack of length sticks out like a sore thumb, but I would be careful in overanalyzing that measurable for a few core reasons. For starters, the narrow landing areas off the tee give us this enclosed feel because of the tree-lined nature of the grounds, but more importantly, the driving distance for the field gets completely negated because of the positional aspect I was speaking about earlier. Golfers see a substantial aggregate of 10.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average, and that overexposure of mid-to-long iron play makes the eight percent decrease in GIR rate that much more noticeable. You will hear countless times this week that the decline in GIR percentage stems solely from the smaller-than-average greens, but please note that wind adds to that reduction because of the coastal layout of the grounds.
Sand traps can play a factor since it feels as if they are always looming, and the 18 individual water hazards aren't always in play but can provide some issues here and there. Overall, the high predictive nature of rollover success from course history ranks the tournament inside the top five when measuring that stat, and the ability to provide a reconfigured tee-to-green game will not go unnoticed for the week. I will talk a little more about what I mean by that answer in my model breakdown below, but these tracks always fit a specific type of player, and our goal is to mimic the intangibles needed from a mathematical perspective.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | RBC Heritage | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 267 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 57% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.38 | 0.56 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted T2G (30%)
- Weighted OTT + APP (7.5%)
- Weighted Grass Type (10%)
- SG: Total Pete Dye (12.5%)
- SG: Total Wind (7.5%)
- SG: Total Under 7,200 Yards (12.5%)
- Par-Four Ranges (10%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Justin Thomas leads the pack at $11,100 on DraftKings and also comes in as the top golfer on my model when running it from both an overall and safety sense. Thomas has been immaculate with his tee-to-green arsenal over the past few starts, averaging 8.6 strokes to the field since the Waste Management Open, and it only feels like a matter of time before the putter cooperates for him in what has been a one-year winless drought on tour. Thomas ranks second in this field when looking at my weighted tee-to-green metrics - one spot below his expectation at a random track - but we also see him inside the top-10 in five of the seven additional categories that I weighed.
Moving our way down, Cameron Smith ($10,800), Dustin Johnson ($10,500) and Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) all appear to be checking in as early leverage options at around 10 percent. All three are popping inside the top-10 of my model, so let's see where the popularity goes over the next few days. My early lean is that Johnson provides the best combination of safety and upside for the group, but that isn't exactly coming to fruition with the American showing as the highest-priced golfer on the slate from this section when looking at the outright market, while also being an underdog in every matchup. The big-hitter has been good at Harbour Town with three top-17 finishes over his past four starts, and the general belief that he would prefer a course that allows you to bomb away freely might be incorrect when we dive into the numbers. Yes, Johnson ranks inside the top-10 of this field for distance, but he also finds himself third off the tee when looking at only courses under 7,200 yards.
And we round out this section with Collin Morikawa ($10,200), who is currently slotted to be the most popular selection of the five. The 25-year-old grades as the top golfer in this field when attaching an even distribution of the pertinent off the tee and approach metrics needed, but it is worth noting that he provides a few massive red flags, including sand save percentage, putting from 5-10 feet, around the green and scrambling - all stats where he ranks outside the top-85 for the week.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
The board is priced well for the RBC Heritage. I will include Webb Simpson ($8,800) into this mix, but the top-14 golfers on DraftKings all rank inside the top-11 of my model in some iteration (aside from Jordan Spieth, $9,200). If nothing else, that does provide a GPP outlook if you believe Spieth can turn his woes around, but the bigger picture of what I am trying to explain is that I am not finding much value to heavily back or fade. The market tends to be in agreement with the players I am lower on for the week, and the lack of real differential in pricing makes it a tricky slate to attack at the top.
I do like Shane Lowry ($9,800). The venue sets up well for him - indicative by his two top-nine finishes over his past three attempts. The form also looks impressive, with four top-13s in his last four stroke-play contests, but I don't know how eager I am to back the Irishman as the top-owned player in the field. Lowry is an underdog early on Monday in a head-to-head battle against Patrick Cantlay - a golfer that will be half the total, so I find it too early to take a firm stance in either direction until we get some clarity. Daniel Berger ($9,600) and Joaquin Niemann ($9,100) are two of the more intriguing options in this range that could go slightly overlooked. I am not claiming it is going to be anything outlandish since both should still clear 10 percent, but each ranks inside the top-five at Harbour Town when it comes to course history in their reduced sample sizes, and both golfers are inside the top-10 for weighted tee-to-green and wind play.
From purely a GPP perspective, I would take Sungjae Im ($9,300) over Jordan Spieth if taking that route. Im has the prerequisites needed in par-five scoring, par-four average and experience on surfaces like he will get this week because of his general dominance in Florida during the spring. This Bermuda grass type that is overseeded is one the South Korean knows well, but the questionable history at the RBC Heritage should have Im go slightly under the radar. And that takes us to the final group of Corey Conners ($9,700), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) and Russell Henley ($9,000). It is still too early to project since all three are looking like top-10 owned players for the event, but Henley and Fitzpatrick have immediately opened as substantial favorites in most of their head-to-head matchups offshore. That point is keeping each on my list of options, despite the worrisome totals, but any slippage there could send them free-falling, especially Fitzpatrick, who is grading as a better cash-game play than a GPP target at this moment.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I think I am fine salary-saving in the $7,000 range and avoiding most of these $8,000 golfers, but the two that intrigue me the most are Webb Simpson ($8,800) and Billy Horschel ($8,700). Simpson's course history is beautiful after providing all top-16 finishes since 2017, including his victory here in 2020, and Horschel has been one of the hottest players in the world and even found a way to find marginal success at the Masters, making the cut in an event that didn't suit his game.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
Options like Aaron Wise, Russell Knox, etc. qualified when running it for upside. Those choices will be much more volatile, so keep that in mind when constructing builds. The only golfers to grade as a positive value for both overall compared to DK and overall compared to ownership were: Kevin Streelman ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300), Lucas Glover ($7,200), Kevin Na ($7,800), C.T. Pan ($7,000), Charles Howell III ($7,100) and Cameron Tringale ($7,000).
Na is likely my favorite play in this section.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
Joel Dahmen and Cameron Davis are the two early outliers of my model.
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