RADIO
Matt Terelle offers up optimal high, mid, and low-priced DFS stacks for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. These GPP tournament stacks are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
Hey there RotoBallers! With the Wild Card round already in the books, daily gamers will get a chance to select players from some of the best offenses in the NFL in the upcoming Divisional Round slate. The Wild Card round was predictably low-scoring, with the Cowboys the only team to score more than 23 points. This round should be much more offense-friendly as Vegas is predicting all four games to be relatively high-scoring. The Colts-Chiefs game leads the way with a 57.0-point over/under while the Chargers-Patriots game is expected to be the lowest-scoring and it even has a relatively high 47.0-point over/under.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Divisional Round DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. As there are only eight teams in play, the focus will be solely on my three favorite quarterback plays along with two recommended pass-catchers to stack with him. You can choose the stack pairing you like the best or roll out a three-man stack if desired. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Divisional Round DFS Stack
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Tyreek Hill vs. Indianapolis
Mahomes, the likely 2018 MVP, will welcome the Colts to town for his first ever NFL playoff start. Indianapolis' defense was stout against the run but leaky against the pass in 2018, which sets the explosive KC passing attack up for a big game. The Colts ranked 20th in pass defense DVOA in the regular season, although they allowed just the 22nd most fantasy points per game. This is not a major concern as Mahomes proved throughout the season that he is basically matchup-proof. Mahomes is projected to be the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate and Kansas City has an implied team point total of 31.25, highest of the weekend.
Hill remains the ideal wide receiver for GPPs. While he has some boom/bust elements to his game, he remains Kansas City's No. 1 receiver and the most dangerous pass-catcher on the offense. The Colts will counter with Pierre Desir in primary coverage. Desir, a former Cleveland castoff, showed great improvement in 2018, but he has just 4.59 wheels in the 40-yard dash, making him ill-equipped to slow Hill, one of the fastest men in the NFL.
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce vs. Indianapolis
Kelce makes for an excellent stack partner, either alongside Hill for a three-man stack or alone with just Mahomes. While it didn't show in the Wild Card round against an inept Houston offense, the Colts were one of the worst defenses in the league when it came to slowing opposing tight ends in 2018. Indy's pass defense ranked 29th in DVOA and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Kelce is coming off one of the best tight end seasons in NFL history and should remain a primary cog in the KC offense this weekend.
Moderately-Priced Divisional Round DFS Stack
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton @ Kansas City
Luck has so much working in his favor as his Colts head on the road to take on the Chiefs. Indianapolis sets up as 5.5-road underdogs in what should be the highest-scoring game on the slate. The Chiefs' pass defense showed improvement as the year went on but is still not a shy-away matchup by any stretch while their high-powered offense gives shootout potential to almost any game they are involved in. Look for Luck to throw early and often in the premier matchup on the slate.
Hilton will continue to play through an ankle injury which has prevented him from practicing regularly for over a month now. That being said, he will be on the field when the Colts take on Kansas City on Saturday. Much like Tyreek Hill, Hilton is a receiver built for GPPs. Hilton will draw primary coverage from undrafted rookie Charvarius Ward, who coughed up 119 yards to burner Tyler Lockett in Week 16.
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck and TE Eric Ebron @ Kansas City
Ebron continued his touchdown-scoring ways in the Wild Card round, pulling three catches with one going for a score. The Colts led most of the way and shifted into a run-heavy offense in the latter stages of the game, which cut into the tight end's production. Ebron draws a fantastic matchup in the Divisional Round as he will take on a Chiefs defense that ranked 25th in DVOA against tight ends and allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position during the regular season.
Bargain-Priced Divisional Round DFS Stack
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and WR Robert Woods vs. Dallas
Goff draws a tougher matchup against a Dallas pass defense that allowed the 23rd-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position during the regular season. While Goff didn't end the regular season on a high note, he has played much better at home over his career and has plenty of upside this weekend, despite his recent struggles. His price has dropped due to the late-season lull, which makes him an attractive option for DFS contests. At just $5,500 on DraftKings, Goff is the third-cheapest quarterback on the slate, despite having No. 1 overall scorer well within his range of outcomes this weekend. The Rams have a team implied total of 28.25 points and running back Todd Gurley will be at less than 100%, which could push a few extra pass attempts onto Goff's plate.
The Rams have done a nice job utilizing all three of their wide receivers this season, although that has made it difficult at times to pin down who will be the team's leading pass-catcher in any given week. This shapes up as a Woods week, as the veteran draws the most favorable cornerback matchup of the group. Woods will mostly see slot corner Anthony Brown, who earned just a 62.8 grade from PFF during the regular season. As he runs most of his routes from the slot, Woods will also be able to avoid coverage from Byron Jones, who emerged as a shutdown force for the Cowboys this season.
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and WR Josh Reynolds vs. Dallas
Reynolds shapes up as a high-upside, low-floor stack partner with Goff. While he isn't a safe play like Woods, he reminded fantasy gamers of his potential in Week 17 when he hauled in two touchdowns against the 49ers. Reynolds only ran routes from the left side 19% of the time during the regular season, meaning he will rarely see lockdown force Byron Jones in coverage, much like Woods.
Contrarian Divisional Round Stack
Los Angeles QB Philip Rivers and WR Mike Williams @ New England
Philip Rivers has really struggled over his past three games, including the Wild Card win over the Ravens. Over that span, he has thrown just one touchdown and four picks while failing to crest 200 passing yards. Granted, two of those games came against an elite Baltimore pass defense, so Rivers gets a bit of a pass here. The Divisional Round is loaded with elite quarterback options as four of the top eight regular season fantasy points leaders are in action. Rivers will go overlooked as a result, despite the fact he has several factors working in his favor. The Chargers are four-point road dogs going against a still-dangerous New England offense. That, plus the fact that Melvin Gordon is still dealing with a lingering knee issue, means that the Chargers should have to pass frequently in this one.
While Keenan Allen is usually the locked-in stack partner for Rivers, he will be checked by slot corner extraordinaire Jason McCourty, who earned one of the highest coverage grades over at PFF this season. On the other hand, Mike Williams projects to draw the easiest matchup against a tough Pats secondary. Williams is likely to be shadowed by J.C. Jackson, who earned a 78.3 grade from PFF this season, the lowest of the three New England starting corners. Williams isn't a safe play but he showed his touchdown upside back in Week 14 when he hung three scores on the Chiefs.
