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Los Angeles Angels second baseman David Fletcher is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2021 MLB season. Sam Chinitz examines Fletcher's fantasy value at his current ADP.
Analyzing David Fletcher is an exercise in extremes. No qualified batter swung-and-missed less frequently than Fletcher did in 2020, and no qualified batter posted a lower hard-hit rate than Fletcher’s 17.8% mark. In an era of hitters who tend to be more power-oriented, Fletcher stands out as a contact-focused hitter with unremarkable power.
Fletcher’s ability to produce in relatively unusual categories provides him with fantasy value, and he comes at a fairly cheap 221 ADP. Fantasy managers should consider targeting Fletcher in drafts as a result. As his overall hitting profile suggests, Fletcher’s primary fantasy value is likely to come in the batting average and runs categories. Below, I analyze his strengths in those categories and use them to establish why Fletcher is undervalued in drafts.
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Batting Average
Fletcher’s .296 xBA since the start of 2019 ranks 14th among hitters with at least 400 PA, and the 26-year-old’s hitting profile paints the picture of an elite contact hitter. No batter posted a swinging-strike rate lower than Fletcher’s 3% mark in 2020, and his 96% z-contact rate was similarly superb. Fletcher’s dominance in this regard can be taken a step further as he managed to lead the league in each of the following categories in each of the past two seasons:
- O-contact rate (84%)
- Z-contact rate (96%)
- Contact rate (91%)
- Swinging-strike rate (3%)
Granted, those metrics are all related, but it’s a remarkable feat for a hitter to lead the league in all four metrics in consecutive seasons. That’s enough for Fletcher to post a consistently near-.300 xBA despite some of the worst power metrics in the league and fantasy managers should expect Fletcher to post a batting average around or above .290 once again in 2021.
Batting average doesn’t correlate very strongly with ADP, but players with strong batting averages can be tough to get late in drafts. Only 36 qualified hitters posted a batting average of at least .290 in 2019, and 26 of them were drafted with ADPs pricier than the 150th pick. Coming in with a 221 ADP in 2021, Fletcher represents an excellent value for fantasy managers looking to add batting average late in drafts.
Runs
Fletcher pairs his contact skills with a reasonably patient plate approach highlighted by a 26.4% o-swing rate for his career, allowing him to maintain a roughly average walk rate (8.5% since the start of 2019). Combined with his high batting average, Fletcher’s solid walk rate provides him with a comfortably above-average OBP that sat at a healthy .376 in 2020.
The Los Angeles lineup plays nicely into Fletcher’s strengths with that in mind, providing him with the advantage of hitting in front of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as the team’s projected leadoff hitter. Few teams can offer such high-quality production directly behind their leadoff hitter, and between his teammates and his own production, Fletcher is a legitimate 90-run threat for 2021.
There aren’t too many players who can offer a near-.300 batting average and 90 runs scored in general, and even fewer come with ADPs after pick 200. That combination makes Fletcher an attractive target for fantasy managers.
2021 Outlook
Fletcher’s value proposition is fairly straightforward for 2021: he’s likely to excel in two categories (runs and batting average), and he provides multi-positional eligibility for fantasy managers (2B, 3B, SS). Although Fletcher certainly isn’t a perfect fantasy hitter, his most significant flaw in terms of fantasy production (home runs) is also among the easiest categories to find elsewhere.
With a 221 ADP, Fletcher is going off of the board after players like Leody Taveras and Jurickson Profar, neither of whom is likely to outproduce Fletcher in 2021. That makes Fletcher an easy target for fantasy managers later in drafts, especially for fantasy managers who drafted power in earlier rounds.
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